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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
This week’s economic calendar is quite busy, and its highlight begins on Tuesday with the release of Australian Building Approvals and U.S. CB Consumer Confidence, in addition to the tentative release of the BOJ Outlook Report, Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement.
Wednesday’s highlights include New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, Australian CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI, U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Canadian GDP, and the U.S. Fed Funds Rate Decision, FOMC Statement and associated press conference.
On Thursday, the BOE will release its Official Bank Rate, Monetary Policy Summary, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes and the BOE Inflation Report. In addition, BOE Governor Carney will speak and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI is due out. The week concludes on Friday with the release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate, plus Australian Retail Sales and the Canadian Trade Balance.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous | |||
| MonJul 29 | 12:50am | JPY | Retail Sales y/y | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.3% | |||
| 3:00am | AUD | HIA New Home Sales m/m | -12.4% | 28.8% | |||||
| 8:00am | EUR | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | 0.6% | 0.4% | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | 0.2% | -0.1% | |||||
| GBP | Mortgage Approvals | 66K | 65K | ||||||
| GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | 4.4B | 3.9B | ||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Building Consents m/m | 13.2% | ||||||
| TueJul 30 | 12:30am | JPY | Unemployment Rate | 2.4% | 2.4% | ||||
| 12:50am | JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | -1.8% | 2.0% | |||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | 0.2% | 0.7% | |||||
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Outlook Report | |||||||
| Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | |||||||
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Policy Rate | -0.10% | -0.10% | |||||
| 6:30am | EUR | French Flash GDP q/q | 0.3% | 0.3% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German GfK Consumer Climate | 9.7 | 9.8 | |||||
| 30th-2nd | GBP | Nationwide HPI m/m | 0.1% | ||||||
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Press Conference | |||||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Consumer Spending m/m | 0.2% | 0.4% | |||||
| EUR | French Gov Budget Balance | -83.9B | |||||||
| 8:00am | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | 93.2 | 93.6 | |||||
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m | 0.3% | ||||||
| Tentative | EUR | Italian 10-y Bond Auction | 2.09|1.3 | ||||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.1% | 0.2% | |||||
| USD | Personal Spending m/m | 0.3% | 0.4% | ||||||
| USD | Personal Income m/m | 0.3% | 0.5% | ||||||
| 2:00pm | USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | 2.5% | 2.5% | |||||
| 3:00pm | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | 125.2 | 121.5 | |||||
| USD | Pending Home Sales m/m | 0.5% | 1.1% | ||||||
| WedJul 31 | 12:01am | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index y/y | -0.1% | |||||
| GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence | -13 | -13 | ||||||
| 2:00am | CNY | Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 49.4 | |||||
| CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54.0 | 54.2 | ||||||
| NZD | ANZ Business Confidence | -38.1 | |||||||
| 2:30am | AUD | CPI q/q | 0.5% | 0.0% | |||||
| AUD | Trimmed Mean CPI q/q | 0.4% | 0.3% | ||||||
| AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% | ||||||
| 6:00am | JPY | Consumer Confidence | 38.6 | 38.7 | |||||
| JPY | Housing Starts y/y | -2.2% | -8.7% | ||||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | 0.5% | -0.6% | |||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Prelim CPI m/m | -0.3% | 0.2% | |||||
| 8:00am | EUR | Spanish Flash GDP q/q | 0.6% | 0.7% | |||||
| 8:55am | EUR | German Unemployment Change | 2K | -1K | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | 10.0% | 9.9% | |||||
| 10:00am | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 1.0% | 1.2% | |||||
| EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 1.0% | 1.1% | ||||||
| EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.1% | ||||||
| EUR | Prelim Flash GDP q/q | 0.2% | 0.4% | ||||||
| EUR | Unemployment Rate | 7.5% | 7.5% | ||||||
| 11:00am | EUR | Italian Prelim GDP q/q | -0.1% | 0.1% | |||||
| Tentative | EUR | German 10-y Bond Auction | -0.26|1.2 | ||||||
| 1:15pm | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 150K | 102K | |||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.3% | ||||||
| CAD | RMPI m/m | -2.3% | |||||||
| CAD | IPPI m/m | 0.1% | |||||||
| USD | Employment Cost Index q/q | 0.7% | 0.7% | ||||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Chicago PMI | 51.7 | 49.7 | |||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -10.8M | ||||||
| 7:00pm | USD | FOMC Statement | |||||||
| USD | Federal Funds Rate | <2.25% | <2.50% | ||||||
| 7:30pm | USD | FOMC Press Conference | |||||||
| 11:30pm | AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | 49.4 | ||||||
| ThuAug 1 | 1:30am | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 49.6 | ||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Import Prices q/q | 1.8% | -0.5% | |||||
| 2:45am | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 49.4 | |||||
| 4:35am | JPY | 10-y Bond Auction | -0.14|3.9 | ||||||
| All Day | CHF | Bank Holiday | |||||||
| 7:30am | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | 13.0% | ||||||
| 8:15am | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | 48.1 | 47.9 | |||||
| 8:45am | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | 48.0 | 48.4 | |||||
| 8:50am | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | 50.0 | 50.0 | |||||
| 8:55am | EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | 43.1 | 43.1 | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | 46.4 | 46.4 | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 47.7 | 48.0 | |||||
| Tentative | EUR | French 10-y Bond Auction | |||||||
| 12:00pm | GBP | BOE Inflation Report | |||||||
| GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 | ||||||
| GBP | Monetary Policy Summary | ||||||||
| GBP | Official Bank Rate | 0.75% | 0.75% | ||||||
| GBP | Asset Purchase Facility | 435B | 435B | ||||||
| GBP | MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 | ||||||
| 12:30pm | GBP | BOE Gov Carney Speaks | |||||||
| USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | 12.8% | |||||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Unemployment Claims | 212K | 206K | |||||
| 2:30pm | CAD | Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | ||||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | 50.0 | 50.0 | |||||
| 3:00pm | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.0 | 51.7 | |||||
| USD | Construction Spending m/m | 0.5% | -0.8% | ||||||
| USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 49.1 | 47.9 | ||||||
| All Day | USD | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.9M | 17.3M | |||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 36B | ||||||
| FriAug 2 | 12:50am | JPY | Monetary Base y/y | 3.8% | 4.0% | ||||
| JPY | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||||||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.3% | 0.1% | |||||
| AUD | PPI q/q | 0.2% | 0.4% | ||||||
| 7:30am | CHF | CPI m/m | -0.4% | 0.0% | |||||
| 8:00am | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | -21.4K | -63.8K | |||||
| 8:30am | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | 47.0 | 47.7 | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Industrial Production m/m | -0.4% | 0.9% | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Construction PMI | 46.0 | 43.1 | |||||
| 10:00am | EUR | PPI m/m | -0.4% | -0.1% | |||||
| EUR | Italian Retail Sales m/m | 0.4% | -0.7% | ||||||
| EUR | Retail Sales m/m | 0.3% | -0.3% | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Trade Balance | 0.8B | ||||||
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 160K | 224K | ||||||
| USD | Unemployment Rate | 3.7% | 3.7% | ||||||
| USD | Trade Balance | -54.2B | -55.5B | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 98.5 | 98.4 | |||||
| USD | Factory Orders m/m | 0.6% | -0.7% | ||||||
| USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | 2.6% |
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.1136/1.1226 | 1.1273/1.1570 | 1.1791/1.1852 |
| Spot: | 1.1127 | Support: | 1.1098/1.1112 | 1.0873/1.0952 | 1.0828 |
| USD/JPY | Mildly Higher | Resistance: | 108.72/109.15 | 110.37/112.56 | 113.38/114.21 |
| Spot: | 108.66 | Support: | 107.80/108.53 | 106.78/107.53 | 105.35/55 |
| GBP/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.2440/1.2477 | 1.2558/1.2712 | 1.2773/1.2987 |
| Spot: | 1.2382 | Support: | 1.2382 | 1.2110 | 1.1973/88 |
| AUD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.6909/0.7003 | 0.7035/0.7246 | 0.7295/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.6908 | Support: | 0.6903 | 0.6827/66 | 0.6697/0.6753 |
| USD/CAD | Mildly Lower | Resistance: | 1.3199/1.3203 | 1.3226/1.3403 | 1.3422/1.3598 |
| Spot: | 1.3173 | Support: | 1.3018/1.3164 | 1.2970 | 1.2916/27 |
| NZD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.6656/0.6980 | 0.7060 | 0.7292/0.7438 |
| Spot: | 0.6631 | Support: | 0.6626/31 | 0.6544/0.6586 | 0.6424/0.6501 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
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