Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for July 28th, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is quite busy, and its highlight begins on Tuesday with the release of Australian Building Approvals and U.S. CB Consumer Confidence, in addition to the tentative release of the BOJ Outlook Report, Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement.

Wednesday’s highlights include New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, Australian CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI, U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Canadian GDP, and the U.S. Fed Funds Rate Decision, FOMC Statement and associated press conference.

On Thursday, the BOE will release its Official Bank Rate, Monetary Policy Summary, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes and the BOE Inflation Report. In addition, BOE Governor Carney will speak and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI is due out. The week concludes on Friday with the release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate, plus Australian Retail Sales and the Canadian Trade Balance.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Consensus Previous  
MonJul 29 12:50am JPY Retail Sales y/y 0.5% 0.2% 1.3%
3:00am AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -12.4% 28.8%
 8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 0.6% 0.4%
9:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.2% -0.1%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 66K 65K
GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.4B 3.9B
11:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 13.2%
TueJul 30 12:30am JPY Unemployment Rate 2.4% 2.4%
12:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m -1.8% 2.0%
2:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 0.2% 0.7%
Tentative JPY BOJ Outlook Report
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10%
6:30am EUR French Flash GDP q/q 0.3% 0.3%
7:00am EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 9.7 9.8
30th-2nd GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.1%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.2% 0.4%
EUR French Gov Budget Balance -83.9B
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 93.2 93.6
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.3%
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 2.09|1.3
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.3% 0.4%
USD Personal Income m/m 0.3% 0.5%
2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 2.5% 2.5%
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 125.2 121.5
USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.5% 1.1%
WedJul 31 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -0.1%
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -13 -13
2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.6 49.4
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.0 54.2
NZD ANZ Business Confidence -38.1
2:30am AUD CPI q/q 0.5% 0.0%
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.4% 0.3%
AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.3% 0.2%
6:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 38.6 38.7
JPY Housing Starts y/y -2.2% -8.7%
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -0.6%
7:45am EUR French Prelim CPI m/m -0.3% 0.2%
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.6% 0.7%
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 2K -1K
9:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.0% 9.9%
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 1.2%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 1.1%
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.0% 0.1%
EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.2% 0.4%
EUR Unemployment Rate 7.5% 7.5%
11:00am EUR Italian Prelim GDP q/q -0.1% 0.1%
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction -0.26|1.2
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 150K 102K
1:30pm CAD GDP m/m 0.3%
CAD RMPI m/m -2.3%
CAD IPPI m/m 0.1%
USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.7% 0.7%
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 51.7 49.7
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -10.8M
7:00pm USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate <2.25% <2.50%
7:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
11:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 49.4
ThuAug 1 1:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 49.6 49.6
2:30am AUD Import Prices q/q 1.8% -0.5%
2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.6 49.4
4:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction -0.14|3.9
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
7:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 13.0%
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 48.1 47.9
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 48.0 48.4
8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 50.0 50.0
8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 43.1 43.1
9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 46.4 46.4
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 47.7 48.0
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction
12:00pm GBP BOE Inflation Report
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B 435B
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
12:30pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 12.8%
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 212K 206K
2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 49.2
2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 50.0 50.0
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.7
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.5% -0.8%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 49.1 47.9
All Day USD Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.9M 17.3M
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 36B
FriAug 2 12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 3.8% 4.0%
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
2:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.1%
AUD PPI q/q 0.2% 0.4%
7:30am CHF CPI m/m -0.4% 0.0%
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -21.4K -63.8K
8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 47.0 47.7
9:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.4% 0.9%
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 46.0 43.1
10:00am EUR PPI m/m -0.4% -0.1%
EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -0.7%
EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.3%
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance 0.8B
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 160K 224K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.7%
USD Trade Balance -54.2B -55.5B
3:00pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.5 98.4
USD Factory Orders m/m 0.6% -0.7%
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.6%


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1136/1.1226 1.1273/1.1570 1.1791/1.1852
Spot: 1.1127 Support: 1.1098/1.1112 1.0873/1.0952 1.0828
           
USD/JPY Mildly Higher Resistance: 108.72/109.15 110.37/112.56 113.38/114.21
Spot: 108.66 Support: 107.80/108.53 106.78/107.53 105.35/55
           
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2440/1.2477 1.2558/1.2712 1.2773/1.2987
Spot: 1.2382 Support: 1.2382 1.2110 1.1973/88
         
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6909/0.7003 0.7035/0.7246 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.6908 Support: 0.6903 0.6827/66 0.6697/0.6753
           
USD/CAD Mildly Lower Resistance: 1.3199/1.3203 1.3226/1.3403 1.3422/1.3598
Spot: 1.3173 Support: 1.3018/1.3164 1.2970 1.2916/27
           
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6656/0.6980 0.7060 0.7292/0.7438
Spot: 0.6631 Support: 0.6626/31 0.6544/0.6586 0.6424/0.6501

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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