Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for August 11th, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

The economic calendar this week is moderately busy, and it begins with a speech on Monday by RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent. Tuesday’s releases include the UK Average Earnings Index, U.S. CPI and Core CPI, and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment index.

Wednesday will feature the Australian Wage Price and Westpac Consumer Price indexes, as well as UK CPI and PPI Input. Thursday’s highlights include the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, UK Retail Sales, U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

The week concludes with Friday’s release of U.S. Building Permits and the Preliminary University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Consensus Previous  
MonAug 12 All Day JPY Bank Holiday
 7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -120.0B -8.5B
9:00pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
11:45pm NZD FPI m/m -0.7%
TueAug 13 12:50am JPY PPI y/y -0.5% -0.1%
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
5:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.1% -0.2%
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.5% 0.5%
EUR German WPI m/m 0.2% -0.5%
JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -37.9%
13th-15th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 7.2%
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.7% 3.4%
GBP Claimant Count Change 42.0K 38.0K
GBP Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.8%
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -27.8 -24.5
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -21.7 -20.3
13th-14th CNY New Loans 1275B 1660B
13th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.5% 8.5%
11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 104.9 103.3
1:30pm USD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.1%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
2:30pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.4%
WedAug 14 12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -1.0% -7.8%
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -4.1%
2:30am AUD Wage Price Index q/q 0.5% 0.5%
3:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 5.9% 5.8%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 6.0% 6.3%
CNY Retail Sales y/y 8.6% 9.8%
CNY Unemployment Rate 5.1%
7:00am EUR German Prelim GDP q/q -0.1% 0.4%
7:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m -0.2% -0.2%
8:30am AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
9:30am GBP CPI y/y 1.9% 2.0%
GBP PPI Input m/m 0.6% -1.4%
GBP Core CPI y/y 1.8% 1.8%
GBP HPI y/y 1.0% 1.2%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.1% -0.1%
GBP RPI y/y 2.8% 2.9%
10:00am EUR Flash Employment Change q/q 0.3% 0.3%
EUR Flash GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
EUR Industrial Production m/m -1.4% 0.9%
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
1:30pm USD Import Prices m/m 0.0% -0.9%
14th-18th USD Mortgage Delinquencies 4.42%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.4M
ThuAug 15 12:00am AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.2%
2:30am AUD Employment Change 14.2K 0.5K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.2% 5.2%
5:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -3.6% -3.6%
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
7:30am CHF PPI m/m -0.2% -0.5%
9:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.3% 1.0%
1:30pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 30.4K
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.4%
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10.1 21.8
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.4%
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 2.1 4.3
USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.4% 3.4%
USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.7% -1.6%
USD Unemployment Claims 212K 209K
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 77.8% 77.9%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.0%
3:00pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.1% 0.3%
USD NAHB Housing Market Index 66 65
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 55B
9:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 3.5B
11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 51.3
FriAug 16 10:00am EUR Trade Balance 18.7B 20.2B
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 10.20B
USD Building Permits 1.27M 1.23M
USD Housing Starts 1.26M 1.25M
3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.2 98.4
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.6%

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1200/1.1249 1.1273/1.1570 1.1791/1.1852
Spot: 1.1200 Support: 1.1098/1.1193 1.1027 1.0873/1.0952
           
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 106.78/109.31 110.37/112.56 113.38/114.21
Spot: 105.80 Support: 105.27/79 104.32/64 101.20
         
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2080/1.2110 1.2188/1.2250 1.2382
Spot: 1.2023 Support: 1.2023 1.1973/88 1.1927
         
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6822/66 0.6903/0.7246 0.6909/0.7393
Spot: 0.6781 Support: 0.6677/0.6753 0.6248 0.6008
           
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3226/1.3403 1.3422/1.3598 1.3660
Spot: 1.3217 Support: 1.3018/1.3180 1.2970 1.2916/27
           
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6501/0.6586 0.6626/0.6980 0.7060
Spot: 0.6463 Support: 0.6424 0.6347/77 0.6098

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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