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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
The economic calendar this week is moderately busy, and it begins with a speech on Monday by RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent. Tuesday’s releases include the UK Average Earnings Index, U.S. CPI and Core CPI, and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment index.
Wednesday will feature the Australian Wage Price and Westpac Consumer Price indexes, as well as UK CPI and PPI Input. Thursday’s highlights include the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, UK Retail Sales, U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
The week concludes with Friday’s release of U.S. Building Permits and the Preliminary University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous | |||
| MonAug 12 | All Day | JPY | Bank Holiday | ||||||
| 7:00pm | USD | Federal Budget Balance | -120.0B | -8.5B | |||||
| 9:00pm | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks | |||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | FPI m/m | -0.7% | ||||||
| TueAug 13 | 12:50am | JPY | PPI y/y | -0.5% | -0.1% | ||||
| 2:30am | AUD | NAB Business Confidence | 2 | ||||||
| 5:30am | JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity m/m | -0.1% | -0.2% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Final CPI m/m | 0.5% | 0.5% | |||||
| EUR | German WPI m/m | 0.2% | -0.5% | ||||||
| JPY | Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y | -37.9% | |||||||
| 13th-15th | CNY | Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y | 7.2% | ||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Average Earnings Index 3m/y | 3.7% | 3.4% | |||||
| GBP | Claimant Count Change | 42.0K | 38.0K | ||||||
| GBP | Unemployment Rate | 3.8% | 3.8% | ||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | -27.8 | -24.5 | |||||
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | -21.7 | -20.3 | ||||||
| 13th-14th | CNY | New Loans | 1275B | 1660B | |||||
| 13th-14th | CNY | M2 Money Supply y/y | 8.5% | 8.5% | |||||
| 11:00am | USD | NFIB Small Business Index | 104.9 | 103.3 | |||||
| 1:30pm | USD | CPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.1% | |||||
| USD | Core CPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.3% | ||||||
| 2:30pm | GBP | CB Leading Index m/m | -0.4% | ||||||
| WedAug 14 | 12:50am | JPY | Core Machinery Orders m/m | -1.0% | -7.8% | ||||
| 1:30am | AUD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | -4.1% | ||||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Wage Price Index q/q | 0.5% | 0.5% | |||||
| 3:00am | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y | 5.9% | 5.8% | |||||
| CNY | Industrial Production y/y | 6.0% | 6.3% | ||||||
| CNY | Retail Sales y/y | 8.6% | 9.8% | ||||||
| CNY | Unemployment Rate | 5.1% | |||||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Prelim GDP q/q | -0.1% | 0.4% | |||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Final CPI m/m | -0.2% | -0.2% | |||||
| 8:30am | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks | |||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | CPI y/y | 1.9% | 2.0% | |||||
| GBP | PPI Input m/m | 0.6% | -1.4% | ||||||
| GBP | Core CPI y/y | 1.8% | 1.8% | ||||||
| GBP | HPI y/y | 1.0% | 1.2% | ||||||
| GBP | PPI Output m/m | 0.1% | -0.1% | ||||||
| GBP | RPI y/y | 2.8% | 2.9% | ||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Flash Employment Change q/q | 0.3% | 0.3% | |||||
| EUR | Flash GDP q/q | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||
| EUR | Industrial Production m/m | -1.4% | 0.9% | ||||||
| Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | |||||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Import Prices m/m | 0.0% | -0.9% | |||||
| 14th-18th | USD | Mortgage Delinquencies | 4.42% | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.4M | ||||||
| ThuAug 15 | 12:00am | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks | ||||||
| 2:00am | AUD | MI Inflation Expectations | 3.2% | ||||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Employment Change | 14.2K | 0.5K | |||||
| AUD | Unemployment Rate | 5.2% | 5.2% | ||||||
| 5:30am | JPY | Revised Industrial Production m/m | -3.6% | -3.6% | |||||
| All Day | EUR | French Bank Holiday | |||||||
| All Day | EUR | Italian Bank Holiday | |||||||
| 7:30am | CHF | PPI m/m | -0.2% | -0.5% | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Retail Sales m/m | -0.3% | 1.0% | |||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 30.4K | ||||||
| USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||||||
| USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | 10.1 | 21.8 | ||||||
| USD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.3% | 0.4% | ||||||
| USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index | 2.1 | 4.3 | ||||||
| USD | Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q | 1.4% | 3.4% | ||||||
| USD | Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q | 1.7% | -1.6% | ||||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 212K | 209K | ||||||
| 2:15pm | USD | Capacity Utilization Rate | 77.8% | 77.9% | |||||
| USD | Industrial Production m/m | 0.1% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Business Inventories m/m | 0.1% | 0.3% | |||||
| USD | NAHB Housing Market Index | 66 | 65 | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 55B | ||||||
| 9:00pm | USD | TIC Long-Term Purchases | 3.5B | ||||||
| 11:30pm | NZD | Business NZ Manufacturing Index | 51.3 | ||||||
| FriAug 16 | 10:00am | EUR | Trade Balance | 18.7B | 20.2B | ||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Foreign Securities Purchases | 10.20B | ||||||
| USD | Building Permits | 1.27M | 1.23M | ||||||
| USD | Housing Starts | 1.26M | 1.25M | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | 97.2 | 98.4 | |||||
| USD | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | 2.6% |
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.1200/1.1249 | 1.1273/1.1570 | 1.1791/1.1852 |
| Spot: | 1.1200 | Support: | 1.1098/1.1193 | 1.1027 | 1.0873/1.0952 |
| USD/JPY | Lower | Resistance: | 106.78/109.31 | 110.37/112.56 | 113.38/114.21 |
| Spot: | 105.80 | Support: | 105.27/79 | 104.32/64 | 101.20 |
| GBP/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.2080/1.2110 | 1.2188/1.2250 | 1.2382 |
| Spot: | 1.2023 | Support: | 1.2023 | 1.1973/88 | 1.1927 |
| AUD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.6822/66 | 0.6903/0.7246 | 0.6909/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.6781 | Support: | 0.6677/0.6753 | 0.6248 | 0.6008 |
| USD/CAD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.3226/1.3403 | 1.3422/1.3598 | 1.3660 |
| Spot: | 1.3217 | Support: | 1.3018/1.3180 | 1.2970 | 1.2916/27 |
| NZD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.6501/0.6586 | 0.6626/0.6980 | 0.7060 |
| Spot: | 0.6463 | Support: | 0.6424 | 0.6347/77 | 0.6098 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
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