EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:
Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
This week’s economic calendar is relatively busy and begins with Monday’s release of UK Manufacturing PMI and Australian Company Operating Profits. The United States and Canada both observe bank holidays.
Tuesday’s highlights include Australian Retail Sales and the Current Account, the RBA’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement, and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, key releases include Australian GDP, UK Services PMI and Inflation Report Hearings, the BOC’s Overnight Rate and Rate Statement, and the Canadian Trade Balance.
Thursday will feature U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, the Australian Trade Balance and a speech by SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan. The week concludes on Friday with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate, the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous | |||
| SunSep 1 | 11:30pm | AUD | AIG Manufacturing Index | 53.1 | 51.3 | ||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Overseas Trade Index q/q | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | ||||
| MonSep 2 | 12:50am | JPY | Capital Spending q/y | 1.9% | 1.8% | 6.1% | |||
| 1:30am | JPY | Final Manufacturing PMI | 49.3 | 49.5 | 49.5 | ||||
| 2:00am | AUD | MI Inflation Gauge m/m | 0.0% | 0.3% | |||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Company Operating Profits q/q | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | ||||
| AUD | ANZ Job Advertisements m/m | -2.8% | 0.8% | ||||||
| 2:45am | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 50.4 | 49.8 | 49.9 | ||||
| 7:30am | AUD | Commodity Prices y/y | 6.2% | 15.0% | |||||
| CHF | Retail Sales y/y | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | |||||
| 8:15am | EUR | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | 48.8 | 48.6 | 48.2 | ||||
| 8:30am | CHF | Manufacturing PMI | 47.2 | 45.6 | 44.7 | ||||
| 8:45am | EUR | Italian Manufacturing PMI | 48.7 | 48.6 | 48.5 | ||||
| 8:50am | EUR | French Final Manufacturing PMI | 51.1 | 51.0 | 51.0 | ||||
| 8:55am | EUR | German Final Manufacturing PMI | 43.5 | 43.6 | 43.6 | ||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Final Manufacturing PMI | 47.0 | 47.0 | 47.0 | ||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 47.4 | 48.0 | 48.0 | ||||
| All Day | CAD | Bank Holiday | |||||||
| All Day | USD | Bank Holiday | |||||||
| TueSep 3 | 12:01am | GBP | BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y | -0.5% | 0.1% | ||||
| 12:50am | JPY | Monetary Base y/y | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | ||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Retail Sales m/m | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | ||||
| AUD | Current Account | 5.9B | 1.5B | -1.1B | |||||
| 4:35am | JPY | 10-y Bond Auction | -0.27|3.6 | -0.15|3.8 | |||||
| 5:30am | AUD | Cash Rate | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | ||||
| AUD | RBA Rate Statement | ||||||||
| 7:30am | CHF | CPI m/m | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.5% | ||||
| 8:00am | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Change | 54.4K | 35.8K | -4.3K | ||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Construction PMI | 45.0 | 46.7 | 45.3 | ||||
| 10:00am | EUR | PPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.6% | ||||
| 2:30pm | CAD | Manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | ||||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | 50.0 | 49.9 | |||||
| 3:00pm | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 51.2 | 51.2 | |||||
| USD | Construction Spending m/m | 0.3% | -1.3% | ||||||
| USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 47.6 | 45.1 | ||||||
| Tentative | USD | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | 55.4 | 55.1 | |||||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -0.2% | ||||||
| 10:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks | |||||||
| 11:30pm | AUD | AIG Services Index | 43.9 | ||||||
| WedSep 4 | 2:00am | NZD | ANZ Commodity Prices m/m | -1.4% | |||||
| 2:30am | AUD | GDP q/q | 0.5% | 0.4% | |||||
| 2:45am | CNY | Caixin Services PMI | 51.7 | 51.6 | |||||
| 8:15am | EUR | Spanish Services PMI | 53.0 | 52.9 | |||||
| 8:45am | EUR | Italian Services PMI | 51.5 | 51.7 | |||||
| 8:50am | EUR | French Final Services PMI | 53.3 | 53.3 | |||||
| 8:55am | EUR | German Final Services PMI | 54.4 | 54.4 | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Final Services PMI | 53.4 | 53.4 | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Services PMI | 51.0 | 51.4 | |||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Retail Sales m/m | -0.6% | 1.1% | |||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Trade Balance | 0.2B | 0.1B | |||||
| CAD | Labor Productivity q/q | 0.1% | 0.3% | ||||||
| USD | Trade Balance | -54.2B | -55.2B | ||||||
| 2:15pm | GBP | Inflation Report Hearings | |||||||
| 2:25pm | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||||||
| 3:00pm | CAD | BOC Rate Statement | |||||||
| CAD | Overnight Rate | 1.75% | 1.75% | ||||||
| All Day | USD | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.8M | 16.8M | |||||
| 5:30pm | USD | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |||||||
| 7:00pm | USD | Beige Book | |||||||
| 8:15pm | USD | FOMC Member Evans Speaks | |||||||
| ThuSep 5 | 2:30am | AUD | Trade Balance | 7.20B | 8.04B | ||||
| 4:35am | JPY | 30-y Bond Auction | 0.29|3.5 | ||||||
| 6:45am | CHF | GDP q/q | 0.2% | 0.6% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Factory Orders m/m | -1.5% | 2.5% | |||||
| Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | 0.30|1.4 | ||||||
| Tentative | EUR | French 10-y Bond Auction | -0.10|2.5 | ||||||
| 12:30pm | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | 43.2% | ||||||
| 1:15pm | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 148K | 156K | |||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q | 2.2% | 2.3% | |||||
| USD | Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q | 2.5% | 2.4% | ||||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 215K | 215K | ||||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Final Services PMI | 51.0 | 50.9 | |||||
| 3:00pm | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54.0 | 53.7 | |||||
| USD | Factory Orders m/m | 1.0% | 0.6% | ||||||
| 3:30pm | GBP | MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks | |||||||
| USD | Natural Gas Storage | 60B | |||||||
| 4:00pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -10.0M | ||||||
| 4:45pm | CAD | Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks | |||||||
| 5:00pm | CHF | SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks | |||||||
| 11:30pm | AUD | AIG Construction Index | 39.1 | ||||||
| FriSep 6 | 12:30am | JPY | Average Cash Earnings y/y | 0.1% | 0.4% | ||||
| JPY | Household Spending y/y | 0.9% | 2.7% | ||||||
| 6:00am | JPY | Leading Indicators | 93.2% | 93.3% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Industrial Production m/m | 0.4% | -1.5% | |||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Trade Balance | -4.40B | -5.19B | |||||
| 8:00am | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves | 768B | ||||||
| 8:30am | GBP | Halifax HPI m/m | 0.2% | -0.2% | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Retail Sales m/m | 0.4% | 1.9% | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3.1% | ||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Final Employment Change q/q | 0.2% | 0.2% | |||||
| EUR | Revised GDP q/q | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Employment Change | 18.9K | -24.2K | |||||
| CAD | Unemployment Rate | 5.7% | 5.7% | ||||||
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.3% | 0.3% | ||||||
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 160K | 164K | ||||||
| USD | Unemployment Rate | 3.7% | 3.7% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | CAD | Ivey PMI | 55.2 | 54.2 | |||||
| 5:30pm | USD | Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.1027/1.1249 | 1.1273/1.1570 | 1.1791/1.1852 |
| Spot: | 1.0955 | Support: | 1.0873/1.0952 | 1.0808/19 | 1.0462/1.0523 |
| USD/JPY | Mildly Lower | Resistance: | 106.68/109.31 | 110.37/112.56 | 113.38/114.21 |
| Spot: | 106.11 | Support: | 105.05/92 | 104.32/64 | 101.20 |
| GBP/USD | Mildly Higher | Resistance: | 1.2064/1.2110 | 1.2188/1.2294 | 1.2382 |
| Spot: | 1.2023 | Support: | 1.1940/1.2023 | 1.1884/1.1910 | 1.1765 |
| AUD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6740/0.6866 | 0.6903/0.7246 | 0.6909/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.6735 | Support: | 0.6677/0.6735 | 0.6248 | 0.6008 |
| USD/CAD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.3382/1.3403 | 1.3422/1.3598 | 1.3660 |
| Spot: | 1.3365 | Support: | 1.3018/1.3357 | 1.2970 | 1.2916/27 |
| NZD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6342/0.6424 | 0.6498/0.6586 | 0.6626/0.6980 |
| Spot: | 0.6290 | Support: | 0.6279 | 0.6098 | 0.5914/92 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
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