Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for December 9th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

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ECONOMIC SUMMARY

The economic calendar this week shows moderate activity  and begins with Monday’s release of UK GDP and Manufacturing Production. On Tuesday, highlights include a tentative Parliamentary Brexit Vote, as well as the UK Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate, and U.S. PPI and Core PPI.

Wednesday’s releases include U.S. CPI and Core CPI, and Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment. Thursday will see the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and LIBOR level, the ECB Main Financing Rate and Press Conference, and the New Zealand Business NZ Manufacturing Index.

The week concludes with Friday’s release of U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, as well as French, German and Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
SunDec 9 1:30am CNY   CPI y/y   2.2% 2.4% 2.5%  
    CNY   PPI y/y   2.7% 2.8% 3.3%  
  9:35pm AUD   RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks          
  9:45pm NZD   Manufacturing Sales q/q   2.0%   1.8%  
  11:50pm JPY   Bank Lending y/y   2.1% 2.2% 2.2%  
    JPY   Current Account   1.21T 1.29T 1.33T  
    JPY   Final GDP q/q   -0.6% -0.5% -0.3%  
  11:53pm JPY   Final GDP Price Index y/y   -0.3% -0.3% -0.3%  
MonDec 10  12:30am AUD   Home Loans m/m     -0.5% -1.0%  
  5:00am JPY   Economy Watchers Sentiment     49.5 49.5  
  6:30am CAD   Gov Council Member Lane Speaks          
    GBP   MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks          
  6:45am CHF   Unemployment Rate     2.5% 2.5%  
  7:00am EUR   German Trade Balance     17.2B 17.6B  
  9:00am EUR   Italian Industrial Production m/m     -0.4% -0.2%  
  9:30am EUR   Sentix Investor Confidence     8.4 8.8  
    GBP   GDP m/m     0.1% 0.0%  
    GBP   Manufacturing Production m/m     0.0% 0.2%  
    GBP   Construction Output m/m     -0.4% 1.7%  
    GBP   Goods Trade Balance     -10.5B -9.7B  
    GBP   Index of Services 3m/3m     0.3% 0.4%  
    GBP   Industrial Production m/m     -0.4% 0.0%  
  12:45pm CAD   Gov Council Member Lane Speaks          
  Tentative GBP   NIESR GDP Estimate       0.4%  
  1:15pm CAD   Housing Starts     198K 206K  
  1:30pm CAD   Building Permits m/m     -0.2% 0.4%  
  3:00pm USD   JOLTS Job Openings     7.22M 7.01M  
  11:50pm JPY   BSI Manufacturing Index       6.5  
    JPY   M2 Money Stock y/y     2.6% 2.7%  
TueDec 11 12:30am AUD   HPI q/q     -1.5% -0.7%  
    AUD   NAB Business Confidence       4  
  11th-18th CNY   Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y       3.3%  
  3:35am JPY   30-y Bond Auction       0.87|4.0  
  6:00am JPY   Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y       -0.7%  
  6:30am EUR   French Final Private Payrolls q/q     0.2% 0.2%  
  11th-14th CNY   M2 Money Supply y/y     8.0% 8.0%  
  11th-14th CNY   New Loans     1200B 697B  
  9:30am GBP   Average Earnings Index 3m/y     3.0% 3.0%  
    GBP   Unemployment Rate     4.1% 4.1%  
    GBP   Claimant Count Change     13.2K 20.2K  
  10:00am EUR   German ZEW Economic Sentiment     -25.0 -24.1  
    EUR   ZEW Economic Sentiment     -23.2 -22.0  
  11:00am USD   NFIB Small Business Index     107.3 107.4  
  1:30pm USD   PPI m/m     0.0% 0.6%  
    USD   Core PPI m/m     0.1% 0.5%  
  Tentative GBP   Parliament Brexit Vote          
  11:30pm AUD   Westpac Consumer Sentiment       2.8%  
  11:50pm JPY   Core Machinery Orders m/m     10.2% -18.3%  
    JPY   PPI y/y     2.4% 2.9%  
WedDec 12 4:30am JPY   Tertiary Industry Activity m/m     0.9% -1.1%  
  9:00am EUR   Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate     10.3% 10.7%  
  10:00am EUR   Industrial Production m/m     0.2% -0.3%  
  1:30pm CAD   Capacity Utilization Rate     85.8% 85.5%  
    USD   CPI m/m     0.0% 0.3%  
    USD   Core CPI m/m     0.2% 0.2%  
  3:30pm USD   Crude Oil Inventories       -7.3M  
  6:01pm USD   10-y Bond Auction       3.21|2.5  
  7:00pm USD   Federal Budget Balance     -165.2b -100.5B  
  9:45pm NZD   FPI m/m       -0.6%  
ThuDec 13 12:00am AUD   MI Inflation Expectations       3.6%  
  12:01am GBP   RICS House Price Balance     -9% -10%  
  12:30am AUD   RBA Bulletin          
  7:00am EUR   German Final CPI m/m     0.1% 0.1%  
  7:45am EUR   French Final CPI m/m     -0.2% -0.2%  
  8:15am CHF   PPI m/m     0.0% 0.2%  
  8:30am CHF   SNB Monetary Policy Assessment          
    CHF   Libor Rate     -0.75% -0.75%  
  9:00am CHF   SNB Press Conference          
  Tentative EUR   Spanish 10-y Bond Auction          
  Tentative EUR   Italian 10-y Bond Auction          
  12:45pm EUR   Main Refinancing Rate     0.00% 0.00%  
  Tentative CAD   ADP Non-Farm Employment Change          
  1:30pm CAD   NHPI m/m     0.0% 0.0%  
    EUR   ECB Press Conference          
    USD   Import Prices m/m     -1.0% 0.5%  
    USD   Unemployment Claims     227K 231K  
  3:30pm USD   Natural Gas Storage       -63B  
  6:01pm USD   30-y Bond Auction       3.42|2.1  
  9:30pm NZD   Business NZ Manufacturing Index       53.5  
  11:50pm JPY   Tankan Manufacturing Index     18 19  
    JPY   Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index     21 22  
FriDec 14 12:30am JPY   Flash Manufacturing PMI     52.3 52.2  
  2:00am CNY   Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y     5.9% 5.7%  
    CNY   Industrial Production y/y     5.9% 5.9%  
    CNY   Retail Sales y/y     8.8% 8.6%  
    CNY   Unemployment Rate       4.9%  
  4:30am JPY   Revised Industrial Production m/m     2.8% 2.9%  
  7:00am EUR   German WPI m/m       0.3%  
  8:15am EUR   French Flash Manufacturing PMI     50.7 50.8  
    EUR   French Flash Services PMI     54.8 55.1  
  8:30am EUR   German Flash Manufacturing PMI     51.7 51.8  
    EUR   German Flash Services PMI     53.5 53.3  
  9:00am EUR   Flash Manufacturing PMI     51.9 51.8  
    EUR   Flash Services PMI     53.4 53.4  
  1:30pm USD   Core Retail Sales m/m     0.2% 0.7%  
    USD   Retail Sales m/m     0.1% 0.8%  
  2:15pm USD   Capacity Utilization Rate     78.6% 78.4%  
    USD   Industrial Production m/m     0.3% 0.1%  
  2:30pm GBP   CB Leading Index m/m       -0.4%  
  2:45pm USD   Flash Manufacturing PMI     55.1 55.3  
    USD   Flash Services PMI     55.0 54.7  
  3:00pm USD   Business Inventories m/m     0.5% 0.3%  
                   

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

 

EUR/USD Mildly  Higher Resistance: 1.1401/72  1.1500/1.1746 1.1815/52
Spot: 1.1401 Support: 1.1301/66 1.1267/98 1.1216
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 112.95/113.66 114.03/114.95 115.50
Spot: 112.56 Support: 111.13/112.56 109.78/110.90 107.31/108.13
   
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.2812/49 1.2897/1.2958 1.3011/87
Spot: 1.2726 Support: 1.2696/1.2726 1.2589/1.2662 1.2347/66
 
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7199/0.7265 0.7302/93 0.7453/0.7503
Spot: 0.7187 Support: 0.7145/82 0.7021 0.6905
   
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3359/88 1.3444/55 1.3598
Spot: 1.3319 Support: 1.3263/1.3318 1.3159/1.3226 1.3048/1.3127
   
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6885/0.6910 0.6980/0.7060 0.7132/77
Spot: 0.6849 Support: 0.6781/0.6817 0.6676/0.6762 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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