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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
The economic calendar cools down a bit from last week, although continues to remain active. Top releases begin on Monday with UK Services PMI, U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI, the New Zealand Employment Change and the NZ Unemployment Rate. Tuesday’s highlights begin with the RBA’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement, followed by New Zealand Inflation Expectations and a speech by FOMC member Bullard.
Wednesday will feature the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Rate Statement, Press Conference and a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Bullock. No significant releases are expected on Thursday.
Friday concludes the week’s highlights with the RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement, a speech by RBA Governor Lowe, UK GDP, Preliminary GDP and Manufacturing Production, the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, and U.S. Core PPI and PPI.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous | |||
| SunAug 4 | All Day | AUD | Bank Holiday | ||||||
| 11:30pm | AUD | AIG Services Index | 43.9 | 52.2 | |||||
| MonAug 5 | 2:00am | AUD | MI Inflation Gauge m/m | 0.3% | 0.0% | ||||
| NZD | ANZ Commodity Prices m/m | -1.4% | -3.9% | ||||||
| 2:45am | CNY | Caixin Services PMI | 51.6 | 52.0 | 52.0 | ||||
| 6:45am | CHF | SECO Consumer Climate | -8 | -8 | -6 | ||||
| 7:30am | CHF | Retail Sales y/y | 0.7% | -0.6% | -1.1% | ||||
| 8:15am | EUR | Spanish Services PMI | 52.9 | 53.6 | 53.6 | ||||
| 8:45am | EUR | Italian Services PMI | 51.7 | 50.6 | 50.5 | ||||
| 8:50am | EUR | French Final Services PMI | 52.2 | 52.2 | |||||
| 8:55am | EUR | German Final Services PMI | 55.4 | 55.4 | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Final Services PMI | 53.3 | 53.3 | |||||
| 9:30am | EUR | Sentix Investor Confidence | -6.9 | -5.8 | |||||
| GBP | Services PMI | 50.4 | 50.2 | ||||||
| All Day | CAD | Bank Holiday | |||||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Final Services PMI | 52.2 | 52.2 | |||||
| 3:00pm | USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 55.5 | 55.1 | |||||
| 7:00pm | USD | Loan Officer Survey | |||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Employment Change q/q | 0.3% | -0.2% | |||||
| NZD | Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | 4.2% | ||||||
| NZD | Labor Cost Index q/q | 0.7% | 0.3% | ||||||
| TueAug 6 | 12:01am | GBP | BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y | -1.6% | |||||
| 12:30am | JPY | Average Cash Earnings y/y | -0.8% | -0.5% | |||||
| JPY | Household Spending y/y | 1.3% | 4.0% | ||||||
| 2:30am | AUD | ANZ Job Advertisements m/m | 4.6% | ||||||
| AUD | Trade Balance | 6.05B | 5.75B | ||||||
| 4:00am | NZD | Inflation Expectations q/q | 2.01% | ||||||
| 4:35am | JPY | 30-y Bond Auction | 0.36|4.0 | ||||||
| 5:30am | AUD | Cash Rate | 1.00% | 1.00% | |||||
| AUD | RBA Rate Statement | ||||||||
| 6:00am | JPY | Leading Indicators | 93.6% | 94.9% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Factory Orders m/m | 0.5% | -2.2% | |||||
| 3:00pm | USD | JOLTS Job Openings | 7.45M | 7.32M | |||||
| Tentative | USD | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | 54.6 | 56.6 | |||||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | 2.7% | ||||||
| 5:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |||||||
| 11:30pm | AUD | AIG Construction Index | 43.0 | ||||||
| WedAug 7 | 12:50am | JPY | BOJ Summary of Opinions | ||||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Home Loans m/m | 0.6% | 0.0% | |||||
| 3:00am | NZD | Official Cash Rate | 1.25% | 1.50% | |||||
| NZD | RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement | ||||||||
| NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement | ||||||||
| 4:00am | NZD | RBNZ Press Conference | |||||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Industrial Production m/m | -0.6% | 0.3% | |||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Trade Balance | -4.0B | -3.3B | |||||
| 8:00am | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves | 759B | ||||||
| 8:30am | GBP | Halifax HPI m/m | 0.3% | -0.3% | |||||
| 3:00pm | CAD | Ivey PMI | 52.7 | 52.4 | |||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -8.5M | ||||||
| 6:01pm | USD | 10-y Bond Auction | 2.06|2.4 | ||||||
| 8:00pm | USD | Consumer Credit m/m | 17.0B | 17.1B | |||||
| 10:30pm | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks | |||||||
| ThuAug 8 | 12:01am | GBP | RICS House Price Balance | -1% | -1% | ||||
| 12:50am | JPY | Bank Lending y/y | 2.4% | 2.3% | |||||
| JPY | Current Account | 1.76T | 1.31T | ||||||
| Tentative | CNY | Trade Balance | 310B | 345B | |||||
| Tentative | CNY | USD-Denominated Trade Balance | 44.2B | 51.0B | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | |||||||
| 8th-14th | CNY | New Loans | 1660B | ||||||
| 8th-14th | CNY | M2 Money Supply y/y | 8.5% | 8.5% | |||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | NHPI m/m | 0.1% | -0.1% | |||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 217K | 215K | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Final Wholesale Inventories m/m | 0.2% | 0.2% | |||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 65B | ||||||
| 6:01pm | USD | 30-y Bond Auction | 2.64|2.1 | ||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Visitor Arrivals m/m | -0.2% | ||||||
| FriAug 9 | 12:30am | AUD | RBA Gov Lowe Speaks | ||||||
| 12:50am | JPY | M2 Money Stock y/y | 2.3% | 2.3% | |||||
| JPY | Prelim GDP Price Index y/y | 0.4% | 0.1% | ||||||
| JPY | Prelim GDP q/q | 0.1% | 0.6% | ||||||
| 2:30am | AUD | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | |||||||
| CNY | CPI y/y | 2.7% | 2.7% | ||||||
| CNY | PPI y/y | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 6:00am | JPY | Economy Watchers Sentiment | |||||||
| 6:45am | CHF | Unemployment Rate | 2.3% | 2.3% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Trade Balance | 18.5B | 18.7B | |||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Industrial Production m/m | 2.1% | 2.1% | |||||
| EUR | French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q | 0.3% | 0.5% | ||||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Trade Balance | 4.23B | 5.35B | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | GDP m/m | 0.1% | 0.3% | |||||
| GBP | Manufacturing Production m/m | -0.1% | 1.4% | ||||||
| GBP | Prelim GDP q/q | 0.0% | 0.5% | ||||||
| GBP | Construction Output m/m | -0.3% | 0.6% | ||||||
| GBP | Goods Trade Balance | -11.5B | |||||||
| GBP | Index of Services 3m/3m | 0.3% | |||||||
| GBP | Industrial Production m/m | 1.4% | |||||||
| GBP | Prelim Business Investment q/q | 0.5% | |||||||
| 1:15pm | CAD | Housing Starts | 246K | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Employment Change | -2.2K | ||||||
| CAD | Unemployment Rate | 5.5% | |||||||
| CAD | Building Permits m/m | -13.0% | |||||||
| USD | Core PPI m/m | 0.3% | |||||||
| USD | PPI m/m | 0.1% | |||||||
| Tentative | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate | -0.1% | ||||||
| SatAug 10 | 11th-15th | CNY | Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y |
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.1136/1.1226 | 1.1273/1.1570 | 1.1791/1.1852 |
| Spot: | 1.1134 | Support: | 1.1098/1.1112 | 1.1027 | 1.0873/1.0952 |
| USD/JPY | Lower | Resistance: | 106.78/109.31 | 110.37/112.56 | 113.38/114.21 |
| Spot: | 105.98 | Support: | 105.35/79 | 104.32/64 | 101.20 |
| GBP/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.2188/1.2250 | 1.2382 | 1.2440/1.2477 |
| Spot: | 1.2112 | Support: | 1.2110 | 1.2080 | 1.1973/88 |
| AUD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.6827/66 | 0.6903/0.7246 | 0.6909/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.6766 | Support: | 0.6697/0.6753 | 0.6248 | 0.6008 |
| USD/CAD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.3237/1.3403 | 1.3422/1.3598 | 1.3660 |
| Spot: | 1.3237 | Support: | 1.3018/1.3226 | 1.2970 | 1.2916/27 |
| NZD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.6656/0.6980 | 0.7060 | 0.7292/0.7438 |
| Spot: | 0.6512 | Support: | 0.6626/31 | 0.6544/0.6586 | 0.6424/0.6501 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
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