Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for August 5th, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

The economic calendar cools down a bit from last week, although continues to remain active. Top releases begin on Monday with UK Services PMI, U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI, the New Zealand Employment Change and the NZ Unemployment Rate. Tuesday’s highlights begin with the RBA’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement, followed by New Zealand Inflation Expectations and a speech by FOMC member Bullard.

Wednesday will feature the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Rate Statement, Press Conference and a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Bullock. No significant releases are expected on Thursday.

Friday concludes the week’s highlights with the RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement, a speech by RBA Governor Lowe, UK GDP, Preliminary GDP and Manufacturing Production, the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, and U.S. Core PPI and PPI.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Consensus Previous  
SunAug 4 All Day AUD Bank Holiday
11:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 43.9 52.2
MonAug 5 2:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.3% 0.0%
NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -1.4% -3.9%
2:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 51.6 52.0 52.0
6:45am CHF SECO Consumer Climate -8 -8 -6
7:30am CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.7% -0.6% -1.1%
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 52.9 53.6 53.6
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 51.7 50.6 50.5
8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 52.2 52.2
8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 55.4 55.4
9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 53.3 53.3
9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -6.9 -5.8
GBP Services PMI 50.4 50.2
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 52.2 52.2
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.5 55.1
7:00pm USD Loan Officer Survey
11:45pm NZD Employment Change q/q 0.3% -0.2%
NZD Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2%
NZD Labor Cost Index q/q 0.7% 0.3%
TueAug 6 12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y -1.6%
12:30am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y -0.8% -0.5%
JPY Household Spending y/y 1.3% 4.0%
2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 4.6%
AUD Trade Balance 6.05B 5.75B
4:00am NZD Inflation Expectations q/q 2.01%
4:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.36|4.0
5:30am AUD Cash Rate 1.00% 1.00%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
6:00am JPY Leading Indicators 93.6% 94.9%
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 0.5% -2.2%
3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 7.45M 7.32M
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 54.6 56.6
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 2.7%
5:00pm USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
11:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 43.0
WedAug 7 12:50am JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
2:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 0.6% 0.0%
3:00am NZD Official Cash Rate 1.25% 1.50%
NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
4:00am NZD RBNZ Press Conference
7:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m -0.6% 0.3%
7:45am EUR French Trade Balance -4.0B -3.3B
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 759B
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.3% -0.3%
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 52.7 52.4
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -8.5M
6:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.06|2.4
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 17.0B 17.1B
10:30pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
ThuAug 8 12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -1% -1%
12:50am JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.4% 2.3%
JPY Current Account 1.76T 1.31T
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 310B 345B
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 44.2B 51.0B
9:00am EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
8th-14th CNY New Loans 1660B
8th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.5% 8.5%
1:30pm CAD NHPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%
USD Unemployment Claims 217K 215K
3:00pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.2% 0.2%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 65B
6:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 2.64|2.1
11:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -0.2%
FriAug 9 12:30am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.3% 2.3%
JPY Prelim GDP Price Index y/y 0.4% 0.1%
JPY Prelim GDP q/q 0.1% 0.6%
2:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
CNY CPI y/y 2.7% 2.7%
CNY PPI y/y 0.0% 0.0%
6:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment
6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.3% 2.3%
7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 18.5B 18.7B
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 2.1% 2.1%
EUR French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q 0.3% 0.5%
9:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 4.23B 5.35B
9:30am GBP GDP m/m 0.1% 0.3%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -0.1% 1.4%
GBP Prelim GDP q/q 0.0% 0.5%
GBP Construction Output m/m -0.3% 0.6%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -11.5B
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.3%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 1.4%
GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q 0.5%
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 246K
1:30pm CAD Employment Change -2.2K
CAD Unemployment Rate 5.5%
CAD Building Permits m/m -13.0%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.3%
USD PPI m/m 0.1%
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate -0.1%
SatAug 10 11th-15th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1136/1.1226 1.1273/1.1570 1.1791/1.1852
Spot: 1.1134 Support: 1.1098/1.1112 1.1027 1.0873/1.0952
           
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 106.78/109.31 110.37/112.56 113.38/114.21
Spot: 105.98 Support: 105.35/79 104.32/64 101.20
           
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2188/1.2250 1.2382 1.2440/1.2477
Spot: 1.2112 Support: 1.2110 1.2080 1.1973/88
         
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6827/66 0.6903/0.7246 0.6909/0.7393
Spot: 0.6766 Support: 0.6697/0.6753 0.6248 0.6008
           
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3237/1.3403 1.3422/1.3598 1.3660
Spot: 1.3237 Support: 1.3018/1.3226 1.2970 1.2916/27
           
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6656/0.6980 0.7060 0.7292/0.7438
Spot: 0.6512 Support: 0.6626/31 0.6544/0.6586 0.6424/0.6501

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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