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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
The economic calendar this week begins on Sunday with the second day of the G7 Meeting in Biarritz, France. The G7 Meetings conclude on Monday, which will also see the release of German Ifo Business Climate and U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders.
Tuesday’s highlights then include U.S. CB Consumer Confidence and the U.S. Richmond Manufacturing Index, while Wednesday’s releases are limited to Australian Construction Work Done and U.S. Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday will feature the New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence index, Australian Private Capital Expenditure, the Canadian Current Account and U.S. Preliminary GDP. The week then concludes with Friday’s release of Australian Building Approvals, EZ CPI Flash Estimate, Canadian GDP, U.S. Personal Spending and Chicago PMI.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous | |||
| SunAug 25 | Day 2 | All | G7 Meetings | ||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Trade Balance | -685M | -250M | 331M | ||||
| MonAug 26 | All Day | GBP | Bank Holiday | ||||||
| 9:00am | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate | 94.3 | 95.1 | 95.8 | ||||
| Day 3 | All | G7 Meetings | |||||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.2% | 1.0% | |||||
| USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | 1.4% | 1.9% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |||||||
| TueAug 27 | 12:50am | JPY | SPPI y/y | 0.6% | 0.7% | ||||
| 3:00am | AUD | RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speaks | |||||||
| 6:00am | JPY | BOJ Core CPI y/y | 0.6% | ||||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Final GDP q/q | -0.1% | -0.1% | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | High Street Lending | 42.8K | 42.7K | |||||
| 1:00pm | GBP | MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks | |||||||
| 2:00pm | USD | HPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.1% | |||||
| USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | 2.5% | 2.4% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | 130.0 | 135.7 | |||||
| USD | Richmond Manufacturing Index | 3 | -12 | ||||||
| WedAug 28 | 12:01am | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index y/y | -0.1% | |||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Construction Work Done q/q | -1.0% | -1.9% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German GfK Consumer Climate | 9.5 | 9.7 | |||||
| EUR | German Import Prices m/m | -0.1% | -1.4% | ||||||
| 28th-30th | GBP | Nationwide HPI m/m | 0.1% | 0.3% | |||||
| 9:00am | CHF | Credit Suisse Economic Expectations | -24.0 | ||||||
| EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | 4.7% | 4.5% | ||||||
| EUR | Private Loans y/y | 3.5% | 3.3% | ||||||
| Tentative | EUR | German 10-y Bond Auction | -0.41|2.0 | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -2.7M | ||||||
| ThuAug 29 | 2:00am | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence | -44.3 | |||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Private Capital Expenditure q/q | 0.4% | -1.7% | |||||
| 6:00am | JPY | Consumer Confidence | |||||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Consumer Spending m/m | 0.4% | -0.1% | |||||
| EUR | French Prelim GDP q/q | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||
| 8:00am | EUR | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | 0.4% | 0.5% | |||||
| All Day | EUR | German Prelim CPI m/m | -0.1% | 0.5% | |||||
| 8:55am | EUR | German Unemployment Change | 4K | 1K | |||||
| Tentative | EUR | Italian 10-y Bond Auction | 1.56|1.3 | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Current Account | -17.3B | ||||||
| USD | Prelim GDP q/q | 2.0% | 2.1% | ||||||
| USD | Goods Trade Balance | -74.0B | -74.2B | ||||||
| USD | Prelim GDP Price Index q/q | 2.4% | 2.4% | ||||||
| USD | Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m | 0.2% | 0.0% | ||||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 215K | 209K | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Pending Home Sales m/m | 0.1% | 2.8% | |||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 59B | ||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Building Consents m/m | -3.9% | ||||||
| FriAug 30 | 12:01am | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence | -11 | -11 | ||||
| 12:30am | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 0.8% | 0.9% | |||||
| JPY | Unemployment Rate | 2.3% | 2.3% | ||||||
| 12:50am | JPY | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | 0.3% | -3.3% | |||||
| JPY | Retail Sales y/y | -0.6% | 0.5% | ||||||
| Tentative | AUD | HIA New Home Sales m/m | -12.4% | ||||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | 0.0% | -1.2% | |||||
| AUD | Private Sector Credit m/m | 0.2% | 0.1% | ||||||
| 6:00am | JPY | Housing Starts y/y | -5.3% | 0.3% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | -1.3% | 3.5% | |||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Gov Budget Balance | -77.3B | ||||||
| EUR | French Prelim CPI m/m | 0.5% | -0.2% | ||||||
| 8:00am | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer | 95.6 | 97.1 | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | 9.6% | 9.7% | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | 0.2% | 0.1% | |||||
| GBP | Mortgage Approvals | 66K | 66K | ||||||
| GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | 4.7B | 4.8B | ||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 1.0% | 1.0% | |||||
| EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 1.0% | 0.9% | ||||||
| EUR | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.0% | ||||||
| EUR | Unemployment Rate | 7.5% | 7.5% | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.1% | 0.2% | |||||
| CAD | RMPI m/m | 1.6% | -5.9% | ||||||
| CAD | IPPI m/m | 0.4% | -1.4% | ||||||
| USD | Personal Spending m/m | 0.5% | 0.3% | ||||||
| USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% | ||||||
| USD | Personal Income m/m | 0.3% | 0.4% | ||||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Chicago PMI | 48.1 | 44.4 | |||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 92.5 | 92.1 | |||||
| USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | 2.7% | |||||||
| SatAug 31 | 2:00am | CNY | Manufacturing PMI | 49.7 | 49.7 | ||||
| CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI | 53.6 | 53.7 |
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Mildly Higher | Resistance: | 1.1117/1.1249 | 1.1273/1.1570 | 1.1791/1.1852 |
| Spot: | 1.1117 | Support: | 1.1052/1.1112 | 1.1027 | 1.0873/1.0952 |
| USD/JPY | Higher | Resistance: | 106.73/109.31 | 110.37/112.56 | 113.38/114.21 |
| Spot: | 105.83 | Support: | 105.05/79 | 104.32/64 | 101.20 |
| GBP/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.2250/94 | 1.2382 | 1.2447/1.2506 |
| Spot: | 1.2237 | Support: | 1.2188/1.2209 | 1.2064/1.2110 | 1.1973/1.2023 |
| AUD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6799/0.6866 | 0.6903/0.7246 | 0.6909/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.6764 | Support: | 0.6677/0.6753 | 0.6248 | 0.6008 |
| USD/CAD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.3319/1.3403 | 1.3422/1.3598 | 1.3660 |
| Spot: | 1.3304 | Support: | 1.3018/1.3300 | 1.2970 | 1.2916/27 |
| NZD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6424 | 0.6498/0.6586 | 0.6626/0.6980 |
| Spot: | 0.6377 | Support: | 0.6342/77 | 0.6098 | 0.5992 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
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