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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
This week’s economic calendar is again moderately busy, and its highlights begin on Tuesday with the release of the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Canadian Manufacturing Sales and a speech by FOMC member Randal Quarles. Wednesday then features U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing, Canadian CPI and the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Thursday will mark the first day of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and key economic releases include French, German and EZ Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs, the ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI, and New Zealand Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.
Friday will see the second day of the Jackson Hole Symposium, in addition to the release of Canadian Retail and Core Retail Sales, and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The week concludes on Saturday with the third day of the Jackson Hole Symposium.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous | |||
| SunAug 18 | 11:45pm | NZD | PPI Input q/q | 0.3% | -0.6% | -0.9% | |||
| NZD | PPI Output q/q | 0.5% | -0.4% | -0.5% | |||||
| MonAug 19 | 12:01am | GBP | Rightmove HPI m/m | -1.0% | -0.2% | ||||
| 12:50am | JPY | Trade Balance | -0.13T | -0.15T | -0.03T | ||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Current Account | 32.2B | 29.7B | |||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Final CPI y/y | 1.1% | 1.1% | |||||
| EUR | Final Core CPI y/y | 0.9% | 0.9% | ||||||
| Tentative | EUR | German Buba Monthly Report | |||||||
| TueAug 20 | 2:30am | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||||||
| 7:00am | CHF | Trade Balance | 3.87B | 4.10B | |||||
| EUR | German PPI m/m | 0.0% | -0.4% | ||||||
| 11:00am | GBP | CBI Industrial Order Expectations | -25 | -34 | |||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Manufacturing Sales m/m | -1.8% | 1.6% | |||||
| 3:30pm | AUD | CB Leading Index m/m | -0.1% | ||||||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -2.6% | ||||||
| 11:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Quarles Speaks | |||||||
| WedAug 21 | 1:30am | AUD | MI Leading Index m/m | -0.1% | |||||
| 4:00am | NZD | Credit Card Spending y/y | 6.6% | ||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -3.7B | 6.5B | |||||
| Tentative | EUR | German 30-y Bond Auction | 0.30|1.1 | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | CPI m/m | 0.1% | -0.2% | |||||
| CAD | Common CPI y/y | 1.8% | 1.8% | ||||||
| CAD | Median CPI y/y | 2.1% | 2.2% | ||||||
| CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y | 2.0% | 2.1% | ||||||
| CAD | Core CPI m/m | 0.0% | |||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Existing Home Sales | 5.41M | 5.27M | |||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.6M | ||||||
| 7:00pm | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | |||||||
| ThuAug 22 | 12:00am | AUD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.6 | |||||
| AUD | Flash Services PMI | 52.3 | |||||||
| 1:30am | JPY | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | 49.4 | |||||
| 5:30am | JPY | All Industries Activity m/m | -0.7% | 0.3% | |||||
| 8:15am | EUR | French Flash Services PMI | 52.5 | 52.6 | |||||
| EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | 49.7 | ||||||
| 8:30am | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 43.1 | 43.2 | |||||
| EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 54.1 | 54.5 | ||||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 46.3 | 46.5 | |||||
| EUR | Flash Services PMI | 53.0 | 53.2 | ||||||
| 11:00am | GBP | CBI Realized Sales | -13 | -16 | |||||
| 12:30pm | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | |||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Wholesale Sales m/m | -0.2% | -1.8% | |||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 217K | 220K | ||||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.5 | 50.4 | |||||
| USD | Flash Services PMI | 52.9 | 53.0 | ||||||
| 3:00pm | EUR | Consumer Confidence | -7 | -7 | |||||
| USD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.2% | -0.3% | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 49B | ||||||
| Day 1 | All | Jackson Hole Symposium | |||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Retail Sales q/q | 0.1% | 0.7% | |||||
| NZD | Core Retail Sales q/q | 0.2% | 0.7% | ||||||
| FriAug 23 | 12:30am | JPY | National Core CPI y/y | 0.6% | 0.6% | ||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m | -0.1% | -0.3% | |||||
| CAD | Retail Sales m/m | -0.3% | -0.1% | ||||||
| CAD | Corporate Profits q/q | -0.3% | |||||||
| 2:00pm | CNY | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.9% | ||||||
| EUR | Belgian NBB Business Climate | -6.0 | -5.0 | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | |||||||
| USD | New Home Sales | 645K | 646K | ||||||
| Day 2 | All | Jackson Hole Symposium | |||||||
| SatAug 24 | Day 3 | All | Jackson Hole Symposium |
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.1102/1.1249 | 1.1273/1.1570 | 1.1791/1.1852 |
| Spot: | 1.1092 | Support: | 1.1098/1.1066 | 1.1027 | 1.0873/1.0952 |
| USD/JPY | Higher | Resistance: | 106.78/109.31 | 110.37/112.56 | 113.38/114.21 |
| Spot: | 106.39 | Support: | 105.05/79 | 104.32/64 | 101.20 |
| GBP/USD | Mildly Higher | Resistance: | 1.2188/1.2250 | 1.2382 | 1.2447/1.2506 |
| Spot: | 1.2165 | Support: | 1.2080/1.2110 | 1.1973/1.2023 | 1.1927 |
| AUD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.6818/66 | 0.6903/0.7246 | 0.6909/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.6785 | Support: | 0.6677/0.6753 | 0.6248 | 0.6008 |
| USD/CAD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.3226/1.3403 | 1.3422/1.3598 | 1.3660 |
| Spot: | 1.3219 | Support: | 1.3018/1.3184 | 1.2970 | 1.2916/27 |
| NZD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.6498/0.6586 | 0.6626/0.6980 | 0.7060 |
| Spot: | 0.6424 | Support: | 0.6424 | 0.6347/77 | 0.6098 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
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