Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for November 11th


Graphic for MW Outlooks


Jay and Julie Hawk



This week’s economic calendar is rather light, and begins with bank holidays in both the United States and Canada on Monday, in addition to a speech by FOMC member Mary Daly. Tuesday’s releases include the UK Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate; the Australian NAB Business Confidence survey; and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment index.

Wednesday will see the release of the Australian Wage Price Index; UK CPI, PPI Input and RPI; and U.S. CPI and Core CPI. Thursday’s highlights include two speaking presentations by Fed Chair Jerome Powell; the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate; UK Retail Sales; and U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales. The week concludes with a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi on Friday.


The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.


Date GMT Time Currency Event      Actual Forecast Previous  
SunNov 11 11:50pm JPY PPI y/y 2.9% 2.8% 3.0%
MonNov 12  6:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 2.9%
9:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.5% 1.7%
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey
7:30pm USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
9:45pm NZD FPI m/m -0.1%
TueNov 13 12:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 6
13th-18th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 2.9%
3:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.90|3.9
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
7:45am EUR French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q 0.3% 0.1%
13th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.3% 8.3%
13th-14th CNY New Loans 915B 1380B
8:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.1% -0.2%
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.0% 2.7%
GBP Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
GBP Claimant Count Change 4.3K 18.5K
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -24.2 -24.7
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -17.3 -19.4
11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 108.0 107.9
3:00pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -116.6B 119.1B
11:30pm AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 1.0%
11:50pm JPY Prelim GDP q/q -0.3% 0.7%
JPY Prelim GDP Price Index y/y -0.1% 0.1%
WedNov 14 12:30am AUD Wage Price Index q/q 0.6% 0.6%
2:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 5.5% 5.4%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 5.8% 5.8%
CNY Retail Sales y/y 9.2% 9.2%
CNY Unemployment Rate 4.9%
4:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -1.1% -1.1%
JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.4% 0.5%
7:00am EUR German Prelim GDP q/q -0.3% 0.5%
7:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
9:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.5% 2.4%
GBP PPI Input m/m 0.6% 1.3%
GBP RPI y/y 3.4% 3.3%
GBP Core CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
GBP HPI y/y 3.3% 3.2%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.2% 0.4%
10:00am EUR Flash GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.4% 1.0%
Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 1.04|1.4
1:30pm USD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.1%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
3:00pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
11:00pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
ThuNov 15 12:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 4.0%
12:30am AUD Employment Change 20.3K 5.6K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.1% 5.0%
1:30am AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
9:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.1% -0.8%
10:00am EUR Trade Balance 16.7B 16.6B
1:00pm GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
1:30pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 28.8K
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -0.1%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.1%
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 19.3 21.1
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 20.7 22.2
USD Import Prices m/m 0.1% 0.5%
USD Unemployment Claims 216K 214K
3:00pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
USD Business Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.5%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 65B
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.8M
4:30pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
6:00pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
9:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 51.7
FriNov 16 7:00am EUR German WPI m/m 0.2% 0.4%
8:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
10:00am EUR Final CPI y/y 2.2% 2.1%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.1% 1.1%
Tentative EUR Italian Trade Balance 2.87B 2.56B
1:00pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 2.82B
CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.3% -0.4%
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.3% 78.1%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.2% 0.3%
2:30pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.2%
3:30pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.2%
9:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 131.8B


The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.


EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1336/66 1.1432/56 1.1500/1.1852
Spot: 1.1322 Support: 1.1301/17 1.1270/98 1.1110/20
USD/JPY Mildly Higher Resistance: 114.09/114.95 115.50 118.61/66
Spot: 114.02 Support: 112.95/113.66 111.13/112.56 109.78/110.90
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2951/58 1.3011/87 1.3175/94
Spot: 1.2932 Support: 1.2922 1.2845/97 1.2696/1.2800
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7238/65 0.7302/82 0.7453/83
Spot: 0.7228 Support: 0.7203 0.7021/0.7182 0.6909
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3218/1.3260 1.3290 1.3381/86
Spot: 1.3185 Support: 1.3048/1.3159 1.2858/1.2987 1.2729/1.2819
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6762 0.6812/58 0.6885
Spot: 0.6744 Support: 0.6676/0.6727 0.6544/0.6630 0.6424/0.6523


TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

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