Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for February 17th


Graphic for MW Outlooks


Jay and Julie Hawk



This week’s economic calendar has less activity and begins on Tuesday with the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, the UK Average Earnings Index, and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment index. Wednesday’s highlights include the Australian Wage Price Index and the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Thursday’s numerous releases include: the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate; French, German and EZ Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs; U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders; and UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, plus speeches by BOC Governor Steve Poloz and RBA Governor Philip Lowe.

The week concludes with Friday’s release of German Ifo Business Climate, Canadian Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales, as well as speeches by ECB President Draghi and FOMC members Williams, Bullard, Clarida and Quarles.


The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
SunFeb 17 11:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -0.1% -1.1% 0.0%
MonFeb 18 12:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 0.7% 0.4%
 11:00am EUR German Buba Monthly Report
All Day USD Bank Holiday
TueFeb 19 12:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
7:00am CHF Trade Balance 2.24B 1.90B
9:00am EUR Current Account 20.3B
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.5% 3.4%
GBP Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
GBP Claimant Count Change 12.3K 20.8K
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -14.1 -15.0
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -18.2 -20.9
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 6.7%
3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 59 58
9:45pm NZD PPI Input q/q 1.4%
NZD PPI Output q/q 1.5%
11:30pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m -0.2%
11:50pm JPY Trade Balance 0.17T -0.18T
WedFeb 20 12:30am AUD Wage Price Index q/q 0.6% 0.6%
7:00am EUR German PPI m/m -0.2% -0.4%
11:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -5 -1
3:30pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m -0.1%
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
10:00pm AUD Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.9
AUD Flash Services PMI 51.0
ThuFeb 21 12:30am AUD Employment Change 15.2K 21.6K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.0% 5.0%
JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.4 50.3
4:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m -0.2% -0.3%
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m -0.8% -0.8%
7:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m -0.5% -0.5%
8:15am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.0 51.2
EUR French Flash Services PMI 49.1 47.8
8:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 52.8 53.0
EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.0 49.7
9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.3 50.5
EUR Flash Services PMI 51.5 51.2
9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -11.1B 2.1B
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
1:30pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -13.0K
CAD Wholesale Sales m/m -1.0%
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.2% -0.4%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.8% 0.7%
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 15.6 17.0
USD Unemployment Claims 220K 239K
2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.9 54.9
USD Flash Services PMI 54.4 54.2
3:00pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.2% -0.1%
USD Existing Home Sales 5.01M 4.99M
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -78B
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.6M
5:35pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
10:30pm AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
11:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y 0.8% 0.7%
FriFeb 22 2:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 4.5%
7:00am EUR German Final GDP q/q 0.0% 0.0%
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 99.0 99.1
10:00am EUR Final CPI y/y 1.4% 1.4%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.1% 1.1%
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m -0.5% -0.6%
CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.0% -0.9%
2:00pm EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -2.0 -1.5
3:15pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
3:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Tentative USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
5:00pm USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
6:30pm USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
10:30pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks


The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1341/66 1.1432/1.1514 1.1549/1.1659
Spot: 1.1311 Support: 1.1301/1.1311 1.1249/98 1.1216
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 111.13 111.38/112.56 113.21/38
Spot: 110.56 Support: 108.11/110.16 107.32/77 105.35/55
GBP/USD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.2922/1.3080 1.3160/1.3298 1.3446/72
Spot: 1.2910 Support: 1.2839/83 1.2662/1.2724 1.2530
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7145/65 0.7221/0.7265 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.7145 Support: 0.7057/77 0.7016/26 0.6735
USD/CAD Lower Resistance: 1.3263/1.3455 1.3614 1.3664
Spot: 1.3236 Support: 1.3128/1.3203 1.3048/69 1.2970/76
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6880/0.6942 0.6969/0.7060 0.7253/61
Spot: 0.6866 Support: 0.6720/0.6778 0.6676/0.6707 0.6424/0.6630


TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

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