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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
The economic calendar is mildly busy this week and begins on Monday with the release of UK GDP and Manufacturing Production. Tuesday’s highlights include the UK Average Earnings Index and Australian NAB Business Confidence.
On Wednesday, key releases include Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment, and U.S. PPI and Core PPI. Thursday will feature the 13-nation OPEC-JMMC Meetings, the ECB’s Main Financing Rate, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference, U.S. CPI and Core CPI and the Business New Zealand Manufacturing Index.
Friday concludes the week with U.S. Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and the Preliminary University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous | |||
| SunSep 8 | 4:00am | CNY | USD-Denominated Trade Balance | 34.8B | 44.3B | 45.1B | |||
| 4:01am | CNY | Trade Balance | 240B | 300B | 310B | ||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Manufacturing Sales q/q | -0.7% | 0.8% | |||||
| MonSep 9 | 12:50am | JPY | Bank Lending y/y | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | |||
| JPY | Current Account | 1.65T | 1.70T | 1.94T | |||||
| JPY | Final GDP q/q | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |||||
| 12:54am | JPY | Final GDP Price Index y/y | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Home Loans m/m | 5.0% | 0.5% | -0.8% | ||||
| 6:00am | JPY | Economy Watchers Sentiment | 42.8 | 41.4 | 41.2 | ||||
| 6:45am | CHF | Unemployment Rate | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | ||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Trade Balance | 20.2B | 18.8B | 18.0B | ||||
| 9:30am | EUR | Sentix Investor Confidence | -11.1 | -13.0 | -13.7 | ||||
| GBP | GDP m/m | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |||||
| GBP | Manufacturing Production m/m | 0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% | |||||
| GBP | Construction Output m/m | 0.5% | 0.2% | -0.7% | |||||
| GBP | Goods Trade Balance | -9.1B | -9.6B | -8.9B | |||||
| GBP | Index of Services 3m/3m | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |||||
| GBP | Industrial Production m/m | 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.1% | |||||
| 12:45pm | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate | 0.1% | 0.0% | |||||
| 8:00pm | USD | Consumer Credit m/m | 23.3B | 16.2B | 13.8B | ||||
| TueSep 10 | 12:50am | JPY | M2 Money Stock y/y | 2.4% | 2.4% | ||||
| 2:30am | AUD | NAB Business Confidence | 4 | ||||||
| CNY | CPI y/y | 2.6% | 2.8% | ||||||
| CNY | PPI y/y | -0.9% | -0.3% | ||||||
| 6:30am | EUR | French Final Private Payrolls q/q | 0.3% | 0.3% | |||||
| 7:00am | JPY | Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y | -33.0% | ||||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Industrial Production m/m | 0.5% | -2.3% | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Industrial Production m/m | -0.1% | -0.2% | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Average Earnings Index 3m/y | 3.7% | 3.7% | |||||
| GBP | Claimant Count Change | 29.3K | 28.0K | ||||||
| GBP | Unemployment Rate | 3.9% | 3.9% | ||||||
| 10th-15th | CNY | New Loans | 1200B | 1060B | |||||
| 10th-15th | CNY | M2 Money Supply y/y | 8.2% | 8.1% | |||||
| 11:00am | USD | NFIB Small Business Index | 103.6 | 104.7 | |||||
| 1:15pm | CAD | Housing Starts | 213K | 222K | |||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Building Permits m/m | 2.1% | -3.7% | |||||
| 3:00pm | USD | JOLTS Job Openings | 7.31M | 7.35M | |||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Visitor Arrivals m/m | -0.2% | ||||||
| WedSep 11 | 12:50am | JPY | BSI Manufacturing Index | -7.1 | -10.4 | ||||
| 1:30am | AUD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | 3.6% | ||||||
| 11th-17th | CNY | Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y | 7.3% | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Capacity Utilization Rate | 82.0% | 80.9% | |||||
| USD | Core PPI m/m | 0.2% | -0.1% | ||||||
| USD | PPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.2% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Final Wholesale Inventories m/m | 0.2% | 0.2% | |||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -2.9M | -4.8M | |||||
| 6:01pm | USD | 10-y Bond Auction | 1.67|2.2 | ||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | FPI m/m | 1.1% | ||||||
| ThuSep 12 | 12:01am | GBP | RICS House Price Balance | -10% | -9% | ||||
| 12:50am | JPY | Core Machinery Orders m/m | -9.0% | 13.9% | |||||
| JPY | PPI y/y | -0.8% | -0.6% | ||||||
| 2:00am | AUD | MI Inflation Expectations | 3.5% | ||||||
| 5:30am | JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity m/m | -0.3% | -0.1% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Final CPI m/m | -0.2% | -0.2% | |||||
| 7:30am | CHF | PPI m/m | -0.2% | -0.1% | |||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Final CPI m/m | 0.5% | 0.5% | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate | 10.0% | 10.4% | |||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Industrial Production m/m | -0.1% | -1.6% | |||||
| Tentative | All | OPEC-JMMC Meetings | |||||||
| 12:45pm | EUR | Main Refinancing Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | |||||
| EUR | Monetary Policy Statement | ||||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | NHPI m/m | 0.0% | -0.1% | |||||
| EUR | ECB Press Conference | ||||||||
| USD | CPI m/m | 0.1% | 0.3% | ||||||
| USD | Core CPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.3% | ||||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 215K | 217K | ||||||
| 2:30pm | GBP | CB Leading Index m/m | -0.3% | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 83B | 84B | |||||
| 6:01pm | USD | 30-y Bond Auction | 2.34|2.2 | ||||||
| 7:00pm | USD | Federal Budget Balance | -160.5B | -119.7B | |||||
| 11:30pm | NZD | Business NZ Manufacturing Index | 48.2 | ||||||
| FriSep 13 | All Day | CNY | Bank Holiday | ||||||
| 5:30am | JPY | Revised Industrial Production m/m | 1.3% | 1.3% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German WPI m/m | 0.2% | -0.3% | |||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Trade Balance | 17.5B | 17.9B | |||||
| All Day | EUR | ECOFIN Meetings | |||||||
| All Day | EUR | Eurogroup Meetings | |||||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.1% | 1.0% | |||||
| USD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.2% | 0.7% | ||||||
| USD | Import Prices m/m | -0.5% | 0.2% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | 90.4 | 89.8 | |||||
| USD | Business Inventories m/m | 0.3% | 0.0% | ||||||
| USD | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | 2.7% |
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.1052/1.1249 | 1.1273/1.1570 | 1.1791/1.1852 |
| Spot: | 1.1049 | Support: | 1.1016/27 | 1.0873/1.0952 | 1.0808/19 |
| USD/JPY | Higher | Resistance: | 107.23/109.31 | 110.37/112.56 | 113.38/114.21 |
| Spot: | 107.20 | Support: | 106.68/97 | 105.05/92 | 104.32/64 |
| GBP/USD | Mildly Higher | Resistance: | 1.2382/85 | 1.2440 | 1.2506/79 |
| Spot: | 1.2346 | Support: | 1.2188/1.2309 | 1.1940/1.2110 | 1.1884/1.1910 |
| AUD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6866/76 | 0.6903/0.7246 | 0.6909/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.6865 | Support: | 0.6677/0.6740 | 0.6248 | 0.6008 |
| USD/CAD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.3177/1.3403 | 1.3422/1.3598 | 1.3660 |
| Spot: | 1.3166 | Support: | 1.3018/1.3151 | 1.2970 | 1.2916/27 |
| NZD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6498/0.6586 | 0.6626/0.6780 | 0.6937/69 |
| Spot: | 0.6427 | Support: | 0.6342/0.6424 | 0.6269/79 | 0.6098 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
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