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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
This week’s economic calendar has less activity and begins on Tuesday with the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, the UK Average Earnings Index, and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment index. Wednesday’s highlights include the Australian Wage Price Index and the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Thursday’s numerous releases include: the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate; French, German and EZ Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs; U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders; and UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, plus speeches by BOC Governor Steve Poloz and RBA Governor Philip Lowe.
The week concludes with Friday’s release of German Ifo Business Climate, Canadian Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales, as well as speeches by ECB President Draghi and FOMC members Williams, Bullard, Clarida and Quarles.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |||
| SunFeb 17 | 11:50pm | JPY | Core Machinery Orders m/m | -0.1% | -1.1% | 0.0% | |||
| MonFeb 18 | 12:01am | GBP | Rightmove HPI m/m | 0.7% | 0.4% | ||||
| 11:00am | EUR | German Buba Monthly Report | |||||||
| All Day | USD | Bank Holiday | |||||||
| TueFeb 19 | 12:30am | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||||||
| 7:00am | CHF | Trade Balance | 2.24B | 1.90B | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Current Account | 20.3B | ||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Average Earnings Index 3m/y | 3.5% | 3.4% | |||||
| GBP | Unemployment Rate | 4.0% | 4.0% | ||||||
| GBP | Claimant Count Change | 12.3K | 20.8K | ||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | -14.1 | -15.0 | |||||
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | -18.2 | -20.9 | ||||||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | 6.7% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index | 59 | 58 | |||||
| 9:45pm | NZD | PPI Input q/q | 1.4% | ||||||
| NZD | PPI Output q/q | 1.5% | |||||||
| 11:30pm | AUD | MI Leading Index m/m | -0.2% | ||||||
| 11:50pm | JPY | Trade Balance | 0.17T | -0.18T | |||||
| WedFeb 20 | 12:30am | AUD | Wage Price Index q/q | 0.6% | 0.6% | ||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German PPI m/m | -0.2% | -0.4% | |||||
| 11:00am | GBP | CBI Industrial Order Expectations | -5 | -1 | |||||
| 3:30pm | AUD | CB Leading Index m/m | -0.1% | ||||||
| 7:00pm | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | |||||||
| 10:00pm | AUD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | ||||||
| AUD | Flash Services PMI | 51.0 | |||||||
| ThuFeb 21 | 12:30am | AUD | Employment Change | 15.2K | 21.6K | ||||
| AUD | Unemployment Rate | 5.0% | 5.0% | ||||||
| JPY | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.4 | 50.3 | ||||||
| 4:30am | JPY | All Industries Activity m/m | -0.2% | -0.3% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Final CPI m/m | -0.8% | -0.8% | |||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Final CPI m/m | -0.5% | -0.5% | |||||
| 8:15am | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.0 | 51.2 | |||||
| EUR | French Flash Services PMI | 49.1 | 47.8 | ||||||
| 8:30am | EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 52.8 | 53.0 | |||||
| EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.0 | 49.7 | ||||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.5 | |||||
| EUR | Flash Services PMI | 51.5 | 51.2 | ||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -11.1B | 2.1B | |||||
| 12:30pm | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | |||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | -13.0K | ||||||
| CAD | Wholesale Sales m/m | -1.0% | |||||||
| USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.2% | -0.4% | ||||||
| USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.8% | 0.7% | ||||||
| USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | 15.6 | 17.0 | ||||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 220K | 239K | ||||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 54.9 | |||||
| USD | Flash Services PMI | 54.4 | 54.2 | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.2% | -0.1% | |||||
| USD | Existing Home Sales | 5.01M | 4.99M | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -78B | ||||||
| 4:00pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 3.6M | ||||||
| 5:35pm | CAD | BOC Gov Poloz Speaks | |||||||
| 10:30pm | AUD | RBA Gov Lowe Speaks | |||||||
| 11:30pm | JPY | National Core CPI y/y | 0.8% | 0.7% | |||||
| FriFeb 22 | 2:00am | NZD | Credit Card Spending y/y | 4.5% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Final GDP q/q | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate | 99.0 | 99.1 | |||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Final CPI y/y | 1.4% | 1.4% | |||||
| EUR | Final Core CPI y/y | 1.1% | 1.1% | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m | -0.5% | -0.6% | |||||
| CAD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.0% | -0.9% | ||||||
| 2:00pm | EUR | Belgian NBB Business Climate | -2.0 | -1.5 | |||||
| 3:15pm | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||||||
| 3:30pm | EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | |||||||
| Tentative | USD | Fed Monetary Policy Report | |||||||
| 5:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Clarida Speaks | |||||||
| 6:30pm | USD | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |||||||
| USD | FOMC Member Quarles Speaks | ||||||||
| 10:30pm | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||||||
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.1341/66 | 1.1432/1.1514 | 1.1549/1.1659 |
| Spot: | 1.1311 | Support: | 1.1301/1.1311 | 1.1249/98 | 1.1216 |
| USD/JPY | Higher | Resistance: | 111.13 | 111.38/112.56 | 113.21/38 |
| Spot: | 110.56 | Support: | 108.11/110.16 | 107.32/77 | 105.35/55 |
| GBP/USD | Mildly Higher | Resistance: | 1.2922/1.3080 | 1.3160/1.3298 | 1.3446/72 |
| Spot: | 1.2910 | Support: | 1.2839/83 | 1.2662/1.2724 | 1.2530 |
| AUD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.7145/65 | 0.7221/0.7265 | 0.7295/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.7145 | Support: | 0.7057/77 | 0.7016/26 | 0.6735 |
| USD/CAD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.3263/1.3455 | 1.3614 | 1.3664 |
| Spot: | 1.3236 | Support: | 1.3128/1.3203 | 1.3048/69 | 1.2970/76 |
| NZD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6880/0.6942 | 0.6969/0.7060 | 0.7253/61 |
| Spot: | 0.6866 | Support: | 0.6720/0.6778 | 0.6676/0.6707 | 0.6424/0.6630 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
