EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:
Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
The economic calendar this week shows moderate activity and begins with Monday’s release of UK GDP and Manufacturing Production. On Tuesday, highlights include a tentative Parliamentary Brexit Vote, as well as the UK Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate, and U.S. PPI and Core PPI.
Wednesday’s releases include U.S. CPI and Core CPI, and Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment. Thursday will see the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and LIBOR level, the ECB Main Financing Rate and Press Conference, and the New Zealand Business NZ Manufacturing Index.
The week concludes with Friday’s release of U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, as well as French, German and Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |||
| SunDec 9 | 1:30am | CNY | CPI y/y | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | |||
| CNY | PPI y/y | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | |||||
| 9:35pm | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks | |||||||
| 9:45pm | NZD | Manufacturing Sales q/q | 2.0% | 1.8% | |||||
| 11:50pm | JPY | Bank Lending y/y | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | ||||
| JPY | Current Account | 1.21T | 1.29T | 1.33T | |||||
| JPY | Final GDP q/q | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.3% | |||||
| 11:53pm | JPY | Final GDP Price Index y/y | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | ||||
| MonDec 10 | 12:30am | AUD | Home Loans m/m | -0.5% | -1.0% | ||||
| 5:00am | JPY | Economy Watchers Sentiment | 49.5 | 49.5 | |||||
| 6:30am | CAD | Gov Council Member Lane Speaks | |||||||
| GBP | MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks | ||||||||
| 6:45am | CHF | Unemployment Rate | 2.5% | 2.5% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Trade Balance | 17.2B | 17.6B | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Industrial Production m/m | -0.4% | -0.2% | |||||
| 9:30am | EUR | Sentix Investor Confidence | 8.4 | 8.8 | |||||
| GBP | GDP m/m | 0.1% | 0.0% | ||||||
| GBP | Manufacturing Production m/m | 0.0% | 0.2% | ||||||
| GBP | Construction Output m/m | -0.4% | 1.7% | ||||||
| GBP | Goods Trade Balance | -10.5B | -9.7B | ||||||
| GBP | Index of Services 3m/3m | 0.3% | 0.4% | ||||||
| GBP | Industrial Production m/m | -0.4% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 12:45pm | CAD | Gov Council Member Lane Speaks | |||||||
| Tentative | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate | 0.4% | ||||||
| 1:15pm | CAD | Housing Starts | 198K | 206K | |||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Building Permits m/m | -0.2% | 0.4% | |||||
| 3:00pm | USD | JOLTS Job Openings | 7.22M | 7.01M | |||||
| 11:50pm | JPY | BSI Manufacturing Index | 6.5 | ||||||
| JPY | M2 Money Stock y/y | 2.6% | 2.7% | ||||||
| TueDec 11 | 12:30am | AUD | HPI q/q | -1.5% | -0.7% | ||||
| AUD | NAB Business Confidence | 4 | |||||||
| 11th-18th | CNY | Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y | 3.3% | ||||||
| 3:35am | JPY | 30-y Bond Auction | 0.87|4.0 | ||||||
| 6:00am | JPY | Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y | -0.7% | ||||||
| 6:30am | EUR | French Final Private Payrolls q/q | 0.2% | 0.2% | |||||
| 11th-14th | CNY | M2 Money Supply y/y | 8.0% | 8.0% | |||||
| 11th-14th | CNY | New Loans | 1200B | 697B | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Average Earnings Index 3m/y | 3.0% | 3.0% | |||||
| GBP | Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | 4.1% | ||||||
| GBP | Claimant Count Change | 13.2K | 20.2K | ||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | -25.0 | -24.1 | |||||
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | -23.2 | -22.0 | ||||||
| 11:00am | USD | NFIB Small Business Index | 107.3 | 107.4 | |||||
| 1:30pm | USD | PPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.6% | |||||
| USD | Core PPI m/m | 0.1% | 0.5% | ||||||
| Tentative | GBP | Parliament Brexit Vote | |||||||
| 11:30pm | AUD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | 2.8% | ||||||
| 11:50pm | JPY | Core Machinery Orders m/m | 10.2% | -18.3% | |||||
| JPY | PPI y/y | 2.4% | 2.9% | ||||||
| WedDec 12 | 4:30am | JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity m/m | 0.9% | -1.1% | ||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate | 10.3% | 10.7% | |||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Industrial Production m/m | 0.2% | -0.3% | |||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Capacity Utilization Rate | 85.8% | 85.5% | |||||
| USD | CPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.3% | ||||||
| USD | Core CPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -7.3M | ||||||
| 6:01pm | USD | 10-y Bond Auction | 3.21|2.5 | ||||||
| 7:00pm | USD | Federal Budget Balance | -165.2b | -100.5B | |||||
| 9:45pm | NZD | FPI m/m | -0.6% | ||||||
| ThuDec 13 | 12:00am | AUD | MI Inflation Expectations | 3.6% | |||||
| 12:01am | GBP | RICS House Price Balance | -9% | -10% | |||||
| 12:30am | AUD | RBA Bulletin | |||||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Final CPI m/m | 0.1% | 0.1% | |||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Final CPI m/m | -0.2% | -0.2% | |||||
| 8:15am | CHF | PPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.2% | |||||
| 8:30am | CHF | SNB Monetary Policy Assessment | |||||||
| CHF | Libor Rate | -0.75% | -0.75% | ||||||
| 9:00am | CHF | SNB Press Conference | |||||||
| Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | |||||||
| Tentative | EUR | Italian 10-y Bond Auction | |||||||
| 12:45pm | EUR | Main Refinancing Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | |||||
| Tentative | CAD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | |||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | NHPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||
| EUR | ECB Press Conference | ||||||||
| USD | Import Prices m/m | -1.0% | 0.5% | ||||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 227K | 231K | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -63B | ||||||
| 6:01pm | USD | 30-y Bond Auction | 3.42|2.1 | ||||||
| 9:30pm | NZD | Business NZ Manufacturing Index | 53.5 | ||||||
| 11:50pm | JPY | Tankan Manufacturing Index | 18 | 19 | |||||
| JPY | Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index | 21 | 22 | ||||||
| FriDec 14 | 12:30am | JPY | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52.3 | 52.2 | ||||
| 2:00am | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y | 5.9% | 5.7% | |||||
| CNY | Industrial Production y/y | 5.9% | 5.9% | ||||||
| CNY | Retail Sales y/y | 8.8% | 8.6% | ||||||
| CNY | Unemployment Rate | 4.9% | |||||||
| 4:30am | JPY | Revised Industrial Production m/m | 2.8% | 2.9% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German WPI m/m | 0.3% | ||||||
| 8:15am | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.7 | 50.8 | |||||
| EUR | French Flash Services PMI | 54.8 | 55.1 | ||||||
| 8:30am | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.7 | 51.8 | |||||
| EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 53.5 | 53.3 | ||||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.8 | |||||
| EUR | Flash Services PMI | 53.4 | 53.4 | ||||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.2% | 0.7% | |||||
| USD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.1% | 0.8% | ||||||
| 2:15pm | USD | Capacity Utilization Rate | 78.6% | 78.4% | |||||
| USD | Industrial Production m/m | 0.3% | 0.1% | ||||||
| 2:30pm | GBP | CB Leading Index m/m | -0.4% | ||||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 55.1 | 55.3 | |||||
| USD | Flash Services PMI | 55.0 | 54.7 | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Business Inventories m/m | 0.5% | 0.3% | |||||
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Mildly Higher | Resistance: | 1.1401/72 | 1.1500/1.1746 | 1.1815/52 |
| Spot: | 1.1401 | Support: | 1.1301/66 | 1.1267/98 | 1.1216 |
| USD/JPY | Lower | Resistance: | 112.95/113.66 | 114.03/114.95 | 115.50 |
| Spot: | 112.56 | Support: | 111.13/112.56 | 109.78/110.90 | 107.31/108.13 |
| GBP/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.2812/49 | 1.2897/1.2958 | 1.3011/87 |
| Spot: | 1.2726 | Support: | 1.2696/1.2726 | 1.2589/1.2662 | 1.2347/66 |
| AUD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.7199/0.7265 | 0.7302/93 | 0.7453/0.7503 |
| Spot: | 0.7187 | Support: | 0.7145/82 | 0.7021 | 0.6905 |
| USD/CAD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.3359/88 | 1.3444/55 | 1.3598 |
| Spot: | 1.3319 | Support: | 1.3263/1.3318 | 1.3159/1.3226 | 1.3048/1.3127 |
| NZD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.6885/0.6910 | 0.6980/0.7060 | 0.7132/77 |
| Spot: | 0.6849 | Support: | 0.6781/0.6817 | 0.6676/0.6762 | 0.6424/0.6630 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
