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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
The economic calendar’s pace picks up this week and begins with Tuesday’s release of the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and HPI, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, and Canadian Manufacturing Sales.
Wednesday’s highlights include the U.S. Fed Funds Rate Decision, the FOMC Statement, Press Conference and Economic Projections, UK CPI and PPI Input, New Zealand GDP, and Canadian CPI.
Thursday then features the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, the BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference, the U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, UK Retail Sales, and the BOE’s Official Bank Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Summary, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes and the Asset Purchase Facility. The week concludes on Friday with the release of Canadian Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous | |||
| MonSep 16 | 12:01am | GBP | Rightmove HPI m/m | -0.2% | -1.0% | ||||
| All Day | JPY | Bank Holiday | |||||||
| 3:00am | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | ||||
| CNY | Industrial Production y/y | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | |||||
| CNY | Retail Sales y/y | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | |||||
| CNY | Unemployment Rate | 5.2% | 5.3% | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Foreign Securities Purchases | -3.98B | ||||||
| USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index | 4.1 | 4.8 | ||||||
| 10:00pm | NZD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | 103.5 | ||||||
| TueSep 17 | 2:30am | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||||||
| AUD | HPI q/q | -1.0% | -3.0% | ||||||
| 6:45am | CHF | SECO Economic Forecasts | |||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | -38.0 | -44.1 | |||||
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | -37.4 | -43.6 | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Manufacturing Sales m/m | -0.3% | -1.2% | |||||
| 2:15pm | USD | Capacity Utilization Rate | 77.6% | 77.5% | |||||
| USD | Industrial Production m/m | 0.2% | -0.2% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index | 66 | 66 | |||||
| 3:30pm | AUD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.1% | ||||||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -0.4% | ||||||
| 9:00pm | USD | TIC Long-Term Purchases | 81.3B | 99.1B | |||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Current Account | -1.10B | 0.68B | |||||
| WedSep 18 | 12:50am | JPY | Trade Balance | -0.13T | |||||
| 1:30am | AUD | MI Leading Index m/m | 0.1% | ||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | CPI y/y | 1.8% | 2.1% | |||||
| GBP | PPI Input m/m | -0.4% | 0.9% | ||||||
| GBP | Core CPI y/y | 1.8% | 1.9% | ||||||
| GBP | HPI y/y | 0.8% | 0.9% | ||||||
| GBP | PPI Output m/m | 0.1% | 0.3% | ||||||
| GBP | RPI y/y | 2.5% | 2.8% | ||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Final CPI y/y | 1.0% | 1.0% | |||||
| EUR | Final Core CPI y/y | 0.9% | 0.9% | ||||||
| Tentative | EUR | Italian Trade Balance | 4.80B | 5.73B | |||||
| Tentative | EUR | German 30-y Bond Auction | -0.11|1.1 | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | CPI m/m | -0.2% | 0.5% | |||||
| CAD | Common CPI y/y | 1.9% | 1.9% | ||||||
| CAD | Median CPI y/y | 2.1% | 2.1% | ||||||
| CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y | 2.1% | 2.1% | ||||||
| CAD | Core CPI m/m | 0.3% | |||||||
| USD | Building Permits | 1.31M | 1.32M | ||||||
| USD | Housing Starts | 1.25M | 1.19M | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -6.9M | ||||||
| 7:00pm | USD | FOMC Economic Projections | |||||||
| USD | FOMC Statement | ||||||||
| USD | Federal Funds Rate | <2.00% | <2.25% | ||||||
| 7:30pm | USD | FOMC Press Conference | |||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | GDP q/q | 0.4% | 0.6% | |||||
| ThuSep 19 | 2:30am | AUD | Employment Change | 15.2K | 41.1K | ||||
| AUD | Unemployment Rate | 5.2% | 5.2% | ||||||
| AUD | RBA Bulletin | ||||||||
| Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | |||||||
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Policy Rate | -0.10% | -0.10% | |||||
| 5:30am | JPY | All Industries Activity m/m | 0.4% | -0.8% | |||||
| 7:00am | CHF | Trade Balance | 3.22B | 3.63B | |||||
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Press Conference | |||||||
| 8:30am | CHF | SNB Monetary Policy Assessment | |||||||
| CHF | SNB Policy Rate | -0.75% | -0.75% | ||||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Current Account | 20.3B | 18.4B | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Retail Sales m/m | -0.2% | 0.2% | |||||
| Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | |||||||
| 12:00pm | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 | |||||
| GBP | Monetary Policy Summary | ||||||||
| GBP | Official Bank Rate | 0.75% | 0.75% | ||||||
| GBP | Asset Purchase Facility | 435B | 435B | ||||||
| GBP | MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes | 0-0-9 | 0-0-9 | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 73.7K | ||||||
| USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | 10.9 | 16.8 | ||||||
| USD | Current Account | -127B | -130B | ||||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 210K | 204K | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.1% | 0.5% | |||||
| USD | Existing Home Sales | 5.39M | 5.42M | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 78B | ||||||
| FriSep 20 | 12:30am | JPY | National Core CPI y/y | 0.5% | 0.6% | ||||
| 4:00am | NZD | Credit Card Spending y/y | 5.0% | ||||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German PPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.1% | |||||
| 12:00pm | GBP | BOE Quarterly Bulletin | |||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.2% | 0.9% | |||||
| CAD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.4% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | EUR | Consumer Confidence | -7 | -7 |
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.1085/1.1249 | 1.1273/1.1570 | 1.1791/1.1852 |
| Spot: | 1.1076 | Support: | 1.1016/66 | 1.0873/1.0952 | 1.0808/19 |
| USD/JPY | Lower | Resistance: | 107.88/109.31 | 110.37/112.56 | 113.38/114.21 |
| Spot: | 107.83 | Support: | 106.68/107.81 | 105.05/92 | 104.32/64 |
| GBP/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.2504/79 | 1.2734/83 | 1.2814/65 |
| Spot: | 1.2468 | Support: | 1.2440 | 1.2188/1.2385 | 1.1884/1.1.2110 |
| AUD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6876 | 0.6894/0.7246 | 0.6909/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.6874 | Support: | 0.6832/66 | 0.6677/0.6740 | 0.6248 |
| USD/CAD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.3265/1.3403 | 1.3422/1.3598 | 1.3660 |
| Spot: | 1.3234 | Support: | 1.3018/1.3237 | 1.2970 | 1.2916/27 |
| NZD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6410/0.6586 | 0.6626/0.6780 | 0.6937/69 |
| Spot: | 0.6383 | Support: | 0.6342/0.6377 | 0.6269/79 | 0.6098 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
