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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
This week’s economic calendar shows more activity than last week and begins with Monday’s releases, which include U.S. Core and Retail Sales, the BOC Business Outlook Survey, and New Zealand Quarterly CPI. In addition, the U.S. Treasury’s Currency Report is tentatively scheduled for Monday. Tuesday’s releases include the UK Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate, as well as the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes, and UK CPI, RPI and PPI Input are also due out. Thursday features the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, UK Retail Sales, a speech by BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and the EU Economic Summit.
Friday’s releases conclude the week’s highlights with UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data, as well as speeches by BOJ Governor Kuroda and BOE Governor Mark Carney.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Economic Event | Last Expected | |||||||||||||||
| SunOct 14 | Day 3 | All | IMF Meetings | ||||||||||||||||
| MonOct 15 | 12:01am | GBP | Rightmove HPI m/m | 0.7% | |||||||||||||||
| 5:30am | JPY | Revised Industrial Production m/m | 0.7% | 0.7% | |||||||||||||||
| 8:15am | CHF | PPI m/m | 0.1% | 0.0% | |||||||||||||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.4% | 0.3% | |||||||||||||||
| USD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.7% | 0.1% | ||||||||||||||||
| USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.4 | 19.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Business Inventories m/m | 0.5% | 0.6% | |||||||||||||||
| 3:30pm | CAD | BOC Business Outlook Survey | |||||||||||||||||
| Tentative | USD | Treasury Currency Report | |||||||||||||||||
| 10:45pm | NZD | CPI q/q | 0.7% | 0.4% | |||||||||||||||
| TueOct 16 | 1:30am | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||||||||||||||||
| 2:30am | CNY | CPI y/y | 2.5% | 2.3% | |||||||||||||||
| CNY | PPI y/y | 3.7% | 4.1% | ||||||||||||||||
| 16th-18th | CNY | Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y | 2.3% | ||||||||||||||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Import Prices m/m | 0.1% | -0.2% | |||||||||||||||
| 16th-17th | CNY | M2 Money Supply y/y | 8.4% | 8.2% | |||||||||||||||
| 16th-17th | CNY | New Loans | 1353B | 1280B | |||||||||||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Average Earnings Index 3m/y | 2.6% | 2.6% | |||||||||||||||
| GBP | Unemployment Rate | 4.0% | 4.0% | ||||||||||||||||
| GBP | Claimant Count Change | 4.5K | 8.7K | ||||||||||||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Trade Balance | 15.0B | 12.8B | |||||||||||||||
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | -9.2 | -7.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | -12.3 | -10.6 | ||||||||||||||||
| 11:00am | EUR | Italian Trade Balance | 4.34B | 5.68B | |||||||||||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Foreign Securities Purchases | 12.65B | ||||||||||||||||
| 2:15pm | GBP | MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks | |||||||||||||||||
| USD | Capacity Utilization Rate | 78.2% | 78.1% | ||||||||||||||||
| USD | Industrial Production m/m | 0.2% | 0.4% | ||||||||||||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | JOLTS Job Openings | 6.90M | 6.94M | |||||||||||||||
| USD | NAHB Housing Market Index | 68 | 67 | ||||||||||||||||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -1.9% | ||||||||||||||||
| 16th-18th | USD | Federal Budget Balance | 71.0B | -214.1B | |||||||||||||||
| 9:00pm | USD | TIC Long-Term Purchases | 74.8B | ||||||||||||||||
| 9:15pm | USD | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | |||||||||||||||||
| 10:20pm | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks | |||||||||||||||||
| WedOct 17 | 12:30am | AUD | MI Leading Index m/m | 0.1% | |||||||||||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | CPI y/y | 2.6% | 2.7% | |||||||||||||||
| GBP | PPI Input m/m | 0.9% | 0.5% | ||||||||||||||||
| GBP | RPI y/y | 3.5% | 3.5% | ||||||||||||||||
| GBP | Core CPI y/y | 2.0% | 2.1% | ||||||||||||||||
| GBP | FPC Meeting Minutes | ||||||||||||||||||
| GBP | HPI y/y | 3.5% | 3.1% | ||||||||||||||||
| GBP | PPI Output m/m | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||||||||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Final CPI y/y | 2.1% | 2.1% | |||||||||||||||
| EUR | Final Core CPI y/y | 0.9% | 0.9% | ||||||||||||||||
| Tentative | EUR | German 30-y Bond Auction | 1.10|2.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Manufacturing Sales m/m | 0.9% | ||||||||||||||||
| USD | Building Permits | 1.28M | 1.25M | ||||||||||||||||
| USD | Housing Starts | 1.21M | 1.28M | ||||||||||||||||
| 2:30pm | GBP | CB Leading Index m/m | -0.2% | ||||||||||||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 6.0M | ||||||||||||||||
| 5:10pm | USD | FOMC Member Brainard Speaks | |||||||||||||||||
| 5:30pm | EUR | German Buba President Weidmann Speaks | |||||||||||||||||
| 6:00pm | GBP | MPC Member Broadbent Speaks | |||||||||||||||||
| 7:00pm | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | |||||||||||||||||
| ThuOct 18 | 12:50am | JPY | Trade Balance | -0.34T | -0.19T | ||||||||||||||
| 1:30am | AUD | Employment Change | 15.2K | 44.0K | |||||||||||||||
| AUD | Unemployment Rate | 5.3% | 5.3% | ||||||||||||||||
| AUD | NAB Quarterly Business Confidence | 7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks | |||||||||||||||||
| 7:00am | CHF | Trade Balance | 2.45B | 2.13B | |||||||||||||||
| EUR | German WPI m/m | 0.4% | 0.3% | ||||||||||||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Retail Sales m/m | -0.3% | 0.3% | |||||||||||||||
| Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | |||||||||||||||||
| All Day | EUR | EU Economic Summit | |||||||||||||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 13.6K | ||||||||||||||||
| USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | 21.0 | 22.9 | ||||||||||||||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 210K | 214K | ||||||||||||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.5% | 0.4% | |||||||||||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 90B | ||||||||||||||||
| 4:30pm | USD | FOMC Member Quarles Speaks | |||||||||||||||||
| 10:45pm | NZD | Visitor Arrivals m/m | 2.8% | ||||||||||||||||
| FriOct 19 | 12:30am | JPY | National Core CPI y/y | 1.0% | 0.9% | ||||||||||||||
| 3:00am | CNY | GDP q/y | 6.6% | 6.7% | |||||||||||||||
| CNY | Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y | 5.3% | 5.3% | ||||||||||||||||
| CNY | Industrial Production y/y | 6.0% | 6.1% | ||||||||||||||||
| CNY | NBS Press Conference | ||||||||||||||||||
| CNY | Retail Sales y/y | 9.0% | 9.0% | ||||||||||||||||
| CNY | Unemployment Rate | 5.0% | |||||||||||||||||
| NZD | Credit Card Spending y/y | 7.7% | |||||||||||||||||
| 7:30am | JPY | BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks | |||||||||||||||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Current Account | 21.4B | 21.3B | |||||||||||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing | 4.6B | 5.9B | |||||||||||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | CPI m/m | -0.1% | ||||||||||||||||
| CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.9% | |||||||||||||||||
| CAD | Common CPI y/y | 2.0% | |||||||||||||||||
| CAD | Median CPI y/y | 2.1% | |||||||||||||||||
| CAD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.3% | |||||||||||||||||
| CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y | 2.2% | |||||||||||||||||
| CAD | Core CPI m/m | 0.1% | |||||||||||||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Existing Home Sales | 5.31M | 5.34M | |||||||||||||||
| 4:30pm | GBP | BOE Gov Carney Speaks | |||||||||||||||||
| 5:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | |||||||||||||||||
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast fora the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.1575/1.1764 | 1.1791/1.1852 | 1.1996 |
| Spot: | 1.1552 | Support: | 1.1508/31 | 1.1432/45 | 1.1301 |
| USD/JPY | Lower | Resistance: | 112.40/114.95 | 115.50 | 118.61/66 |
| Spot: | 112.19 | Support: | 112.04/15 | 111.13/76 | 108.65/110.90 |
| GBP/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.3143/1.3217 | 1.3258/1.3315 | 1.3362 |
| Spot: | 1.3107 | Support: | 1.3027/83 | 1.2922/58 | 1.2775/1.2897 |
| AUD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.7131/60 | 0.7203/38 | 0.7304/62 |
| Spot: | 0.7109 | Support: | 0.7041/98 | 0.6909 | 0.6827 |
| USD/CAD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.3051/1.3130 | 1.3174/1.3260 | 1.3290 |
| Spot: | 1.3021 | Support: | 1.2963/87 | 1.2858/1.2922 | 1.2729/1.2819 |
| NZD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6498/0.6544 | 0.6595/0.6620 | 0.6676/0.6727 |
| Spot: | 0.6497 | Support: | 0.6424 | 0.6347 | 0.6098 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
