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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
This week’s economic calendar starts with Monday’s release of New Zealand CPI and a speech by FOMC Member John Williams. On Tuesday, highlights include the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, the UK Average Earnings Index, and U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, in addition to speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and FOMC Member Charles Evans.
Wednesday’s releases begin with UK CPI and PPI Input, Canadian CPI and U.S. Building Permits. Thursday then features the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, UK Retail Sales, the BOE’s Credit Conditions Survey and a speech by FOMC Member John Williams.
The week concludes on Friday with the release of UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, Canadian Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. FOMC members Bullard and Rosengran will also give speeches on Friday.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous | |||
| SunJul 14 | 11:45pm | NZD | Visitor Arrivals m/m | -0.2% | -3.2% | ||||
| MonJul 15 | 12:01am | GBP | Rightmove HPI m/m | -0.2% | 0.3% | ||||
| All Day | JPY | Bank Holiday | |||||||
| 2:58am | CNY | GDP q/y | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | ||||
| 3:00am | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | ||||
| CNY | Industrial Production y/y | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | |||||
| CNY | NBS Press Conference | ||||||||
| CNY | Retail Sales y/y | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | |||||
| CNY | Unemployment Rate | 5.1% | 5.0% | ||||||
| 7:30am | CHF | PPI m/m | -0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | ||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index | 1.6 | -8.6 | |||||
| 1:50pm | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | CPI q/q | 0.6% | 0.1% | |||||
| TueJul 16 | 2:30am | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Italian Trade Balance | 2.91B | 2.89B | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Average Earnings Index 3m/y | 3.1% | 3.1% | |||||
| GBP | Claimant Count Change | 18.9K | 23.2K | ||||||
| GBP | Unemployment Rate | 3.8% | 3.8% | ||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | -22.1 | -21.1 | |||||
| EUR | Trade Balance | 16.4B | 15.3B | ||||||
| EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment | -20.9 | -20.2 | ||||||
| 1:15pm | USD | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | |||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Foreign Securities Purchases | -12.80B | ||||||
| USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.1% | 0.5% | ||||||
| USD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.1% | 0.5% | ||||||
| USD | Import Prices m/m | -0.7% | -0.3% | ||||||
| 2:15pm | USD | Capacity Utilization Rate | 78.2% | 78.1% | |||||
| USD | Industrial Production m/m | 0.1% | 0.4% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Business Inventories m/m | 0.4% | 0.5% | |||||
| USD | NAHB Housing Market Index | 64 | 64 | ||||||
| Tentative | NZD | GDT Price Index | -0.4% | ||||||
| 6:00pm | USD | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | |||||||
| 8:30pm | USD | FOMC Member Evans Speaks | |||||||
| 9:00pm | USD | TIC Long-Term Purchases | 32.3B | 46.9B | |||||
| WedJul 17 | 1:30am | AUD | MI Leading Index m/m | -0.1% | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | CPI y/y | 2.0% | 2.0% | |||||
| GBP | PPI Input m/m | -1.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| GBP | Core CPI y/y | 1.8% | 1.7% | ||||||
| GBP | HPI y/y | 1.2% | 1.4% | ||||||
| GBP | PPI Output m/m | 0.1% | 0.3% | ||||||
| GBP | RPI y/y | 2.9% | 3.0% | ||||||
| 10:00am | EUR | Final CPI y/y | 1.2% | 1.2% | |||||
| EUR | Final Core CPI y/y | 1.1% | 1.1% | ||||||
| Tentative | EUR | German 30-y Bond Auction | 0.26|1.6 | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | CPI m/m | -0.3% | 0.4% | |||||
| CAD | Common CPI y/y | 1.8% | 1.8% | ||||||
| CAD | Manufacturing Sales m/m | 1.6% | -0.6% | ||||||
| CAD | Median CPI y/y | 2.1% | 2.1% | ||||||
| CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y | 2.2% | 2.3% | ||||||
| CAD | Core CPI m/m | 0.4% | |||||||
| USD | Building Permits | 1.30M | 1.29M | ||||||
| USD | Housing Starts | 1.26M | 1.27M | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -9.5M | ||||||
| 7:00pm | USD | Beige Book | |||||||
| ThuJul 18 | 12:50am | JPY | Trade Balance | -0.14T | -0.61T | ||||
| 2:30am | AUD | Employment Change | 9.1K | 42.3K | |||||
| AUD | Unemployment Rate | 5.2% | 5.2% | ||||||
| AUD | NAB Quarterly Business Confidence | -1 | |||||||
| 7:00am | CHF | Trade Balance | 3.21B | 3.41B | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Retail Sales m/m | -0.3% | -0.5% | |||||
| GBP | BOE Credit Conditions Survey | ||||||||
| Tentative | EUR | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction | |||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | -16.0K | ||||||
| USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | 5.0 | 0.3 | ||||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 216K | 209K | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.0% | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 81B | ||||||
| 7:15pm | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||||||
| FriJul 19 | 12:30am | JPY | National Core CPI y/y | 0.6% | 0.8% | ||||
| 4:00am | NZD | Credit Card Spending y/y | 6.6% | ||||||
| 5:30am | JPY | All Industries Activity m/m | 0.3% | 0.9% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German PPI m/m | -0.1% | -0.1% | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Current Account | 21.2B | 20.9B | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing | 3.4B | 4.5B | |||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.3% | 0.1% | |||||
| CAD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.3% | 0.1% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | 98.6 | 98.2 | |||||
| USD | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | 2.7% | |||||||
| 4:05pm | USD | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |||||||
| 9:30pm | USD | FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks |
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.1273/1.1570 | 1.1791/1.1815 | 1.1852 |
| Spot: | 1.1272 | Support: | 1.1136/1.1226 | 1.1107/12 | 1.0906/12 |
| USD/JPY | Mildly Lower | Resistance: | 108.11/109.15 | 110.37/112.56 | 113.38/114.21 |
| Spot: | 107.98 | Support: | 107.80/81 | 106.78/107.53 | 105.35/55 |
| GBP/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.2605/1.2712 | 1.2773/1.2987 | 1.3102/76 |
| Spot: | 1.2568 | Support: | 1.2440/1.2559 | 1.21096 | 1.1973/88 |
| AUD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.7035/0.7168 | 0.7192/0.7246 | 0.7295/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.7034 | Support: | 0.6909/0.7003 | 0.6827/66 | 0.6697/0.6753 |
| USD/CAD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.3037/1.3203 | 1.3226/1.3403 | 1.3422/1.3598 |
| Spot: | 1.3024 | Support: | 1.3018 | 1.2970 | 1.2916/27 |
| NZD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6726/0.6980 | 0.7060 | 0.7292/0.7438 |
| Spot: | 0.6722 | Support: | 0.6656/0.6718 | 0.6544/0.6586 | 0.6424/0.6501 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
