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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
The economic calendar continues to be active this week, and its highlights begin with EU PMI numbers and a speech by ECB President Draghi on Monday. Tuesday then features speeches by BOJ Governor Kuroda and RBA Governor Lowe, in addition to the release of the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence index.
Wednesday’s highlights include the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate Decision and Rate Statement, followed by U.S. Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday then features U.S. Final GDP and the FOMC Press Conference, as well as speeches by ECB President Draghi and BOE Governor Carney.
Friday’s key releases include Core Durable Goods Orders and Personal Spending to conclude the week’s highlights. The New Zealand Daylight Savings Time shift will take place on Saturday.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous | |||
| MonSep 23 | 12:00am | AUD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | 50.9 | ||||
| AUD | Flash Services PMI | 52.5 | 49.1 | ||||||
| All Day | JPY | Bank Holiday | |||||||
| 8:15am | EUR | French Flash Services PMI | 53.1 | 53.4 | |||||
| EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.9 | 51.1 | ||||||
| 8:30am | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 44.6 | 43.5 | |||||
| EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 54.3 | 54.8 | ||||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 47.6 | 47.0 | |||||
| EUR | Flash Services PMI | 53.1 | 53.5 | ||||||
| 10:15am | GBP | MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks | |||||||
| 11:00am | GBP | CBI Industrial Order Expectations | -14 | -13 | |||||
| Tentative | EUR | German Buba Monthly Report | |||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Wholesale Sales m/m | 0.0% | 0.6% | |||||
| 2:00pm | CNY | CB Leading Index m/m | 1.3% | ||||||
| EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | ||||||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.3 | |||||
| USD | Flash Services PMI | 51.5 | 50.7 | ||||||
| 2:50pm | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||||||
| 6:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |||||||
| TueSep 24 | 1:30am | JPY | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | 49.3 | ||||
| 6:30am | JPY | BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks | |||||||
| 9:00am | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate | 94.5 | 94.3 | |||||
| 9:30am | GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -2.0B | ||||||
| 10:55am | AUD | RBA Gov Lowe Speaks | |||||||
| 2:00pm | EUR | Belgian NBB Business Climate | -5.7 | -5.8 | |||||
| USD | HPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% | ||||||
| USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | 2.2% | 2.1% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | 134.1 | 135.1 | |||||
| USD | Richmond Manufacturing Index | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Trade Balance | -100M | -685M | |||||
| WedSep 25 | 12:50am | JPY | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||||||
| JPY | SPPI y/y | 0.5% | 0.5% | ||||||
| 3:00am | NZD | Official Cash Rate | 1.00% | 1.00% | |||||
| NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement | ||||||||
| 6:00am | JPY | BOJ Core CPI y/y | 0.6% | 0.6% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German GfK Consumer Climate | 9.7 | 9.7 | |||||
| 9:00am | CHF | Credit Suisse Economic Expectations | -37.5 | ||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | High Street Lending | 43.3K | ||||||
| 11:00am | GBP | CBI Realized Sales | -22 | -49 | |||||
| Tentative | EUR | German 10-y Bond Auction | -0.70|1.9 | ||||||
| 1:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Evans Speaks | |||||||
| 2:00pm | CHF | SNB Quarterly Bulletin | |||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | FOMC Member George Speaks | |||||||
| USD | New Home Sales | 652K | 635K | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.1M | ||||||
| ThuSep 26 | 9:00am | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | ||||||
| EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | 5.1% | 5.2% | ||||||
| EUR | Private Loans y/y | 3.4% | |||||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Final GDP q/q | 2.0% | 2.0% | |||||
| USD | Final GDP Price Index q/q | 2.4% | 2.4% | ||||||
| USD | Goods Trade Balance | -73.3B | -72.3B | ||||||
| USD | Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m | 0.2% | |||||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 208K | |||||||
| 2:30pm | EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | |||||||
| 2:45pm | GBP | BOE Gov Carney Speaks | |||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |||||||
| USD | Pending Home Sales m/m | -1.0% | -2.5% | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 84B | ||||||
| 4:45pm | USD | FOMC Press Conference | |||||||
| USD | FOMC Member Clarida Speaks | ||||||||
| FriSep 27 | 12:01am | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence | -14 | -14 | ||||
| 12:30am | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 0.6% | 0.7% | |||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Import Prices m/m | |||||||
| 7:45am | EUR | French Consumer Spending m/m | 0.4% | ||||||
| EUR | French Prelim CPI m/m | 0.5% | |||||||
| 8:00am | GBP | MPC Member Saunders Speaks | |||||||
| Tentative | EUR | Italian 10-y Bond Auction | 0.96|1.3 | ||||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.2% | -0.4% | |||||
| USD | Personal Spending m/m | 0.3% | 0.6% | ||||||
| USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||
| USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | -1.1% | 2.0% | ||||||
| USD | FOMC Member Quarles Speaks | ||||||||
| USD | Personal Income m/m | 0.4% | 0.1% | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 92.0 | 92.0 | |||||
| USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | 2.8% | |||||||
| SatSep 28 | 3:00pm | NZD | Daylight Saving Time Shift |
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Neutral | Resistance: | 1.1027/1.1249 | 1.1273/1.1570 | 1.1791/1.1852 |
| Spot: | 1.1021 | Support: | 1.0990/1.1016 | 1.0873/1.0952 | 1.0808/19 |
| USD/JPY | Lower | Resistance: | 107.81/109.31 | 110.37/112.56 | 113.38/114.21 |
| Spot: | 107.73 | Support: | 106.68/107.53 | 105.05/92 | 104.32/64 |
| GBP/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.2504/81 | 1.2734/83 | 1.2814/65 |
| Spot: | 1.2484 | Support: | 1.2440 | 1.2188/1.2392 | 1.1884/1.1.2110 |
| AUD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.6832/76 | 0.6894/0.7246 | 0.6909/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.6778 | Support: | 0.6760 | 0.6677/0.6740 | 0.6248 |
| USD/CAD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.3287/1.3403 | 1.3422/1.3598 | 1.3660 |
| Spot: | 1.3274 | Support: | 1.3018/1.3265 | 1.2970 | 1.2916/27 |
| NZD/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 0.6279 | 0.6342/0.6586 | 0.6626/0.6780 |
| Spot: | 0.6272 | Support: | 0.6255/69 | 0.6098 | 0.5992 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
