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Jay and Julie Hawk
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ECONOMIC SUMMARY
This week’s rather light economic calendar begins with two speeches on Monday by BOJ Governor Kuroda and RBA Assistant Governor Kent. Tuesday’s only highlight is the New Zealand Trade Balance.
On Wednesday, key releases include French, German and EU Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI. RBA Governor Lowe will also speak.
Thursday will feature the ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate Decision, Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement, in addition to U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders. Friday will conclude the week’s highlights with U.S. Advance GDP and the Advance GDP Price Index.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.
| Date | GMT Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous | |||
| MonJul 22 | 11:00am | EUR | German Buba Monthly Report | ||||||
| 1:30pm | CAD | Wholesale Sales m/m | -1.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | ||||
| 4:00pm | JPY | BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks | |||||||
| 11:30pm | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks | |||||||
| TueJul 23 | 6:00am | JPY | BOJ Core CPI y/y | 0.6% | 0.7% | ||||
| 11:00am | GBP | CBI Industrial Order Expectations | -15 | -15 | |||||
| Tentative | GBP | 10-y Bond Auction | 0.89|2.1 | ||||||
| 2:00pm | USD | HPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.4% | |||||
| 3:00pm | USD | Existing Home Sales | 5.35M | 5.34M | |||||
| USD | Richmond Manufacturing Index | 5 | 3 | ||||||
| 3:30pm | AUD | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.1% | ||||||
| 11:45pm | NZD | Trade Balance | 100M | 264M | |||||
| WedJul 24 | 12:00am | AUD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52.0 | |||||
| AUD | Flash Services PMI | 52.6 | |||||||
| 1:30am | JPY | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 49.7 | 49.3 | |||||
| 8:15am | EUR | French Flash Services PMI | 52.7 | 52.9 | |||||
| EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | 51.6 | 51.9 | ||||||
| 8:30am | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | 45.1 | 45.0 | |||||
| EUR | German Flash Services PMI | 55.3 | 55.8 | ||||||
| 9:00am | EUR | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 47.6 | 47.6 | |||||
| EUR | Flash Services PMI | 53.3 | 53.6 | ||||||
| EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | 4.6% | 4.8% | ||||||
| EUR | Private Loans y/y | 3.2% | 3.3% | ||||||
| 9:30am | GBP | High Street Lending | 42.9K | 42.4K | |||||
| 2:00pm | CNY | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.8% | ||||||
| EUR | Belgian NBB Business Climate | -5.0 | -4.9 | ||||||
| 2:45pm | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 50.9 | 50.6 | |||||
| USD | Flash Services PMI | 51.6 | 51.5 | ||||||
| 3:00pm | USD | New Home Sales | 659K | 626K | |||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -3.1M | ||||||
| ThuJul 25 | 12:50am | JPY | SPPI y/y | 0.8% | 0.8% | ||||
| 4:05am | AUD | RBA Gov Lowe Speaks | |||||||
| 8:00am | EUR | Spanish Unemployment Rate | 13.7% | 14.7% | |||||
| 9:00am | EUR | German Ifo Business Climate | 97.1 | 97.4 | |||||
| 11:00am | GBP | CBI Realized Sales | 0 | -42 | |||||
| 12:45pm | EUR | Main Refinancing Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | |||||
| EUR | Monetary Policy Statement | ||||||||
| 1:30pm | EUR | ECB Press Conference | |||||||
| USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.2% | 0.4% | ||||||
| USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.8% | -1.3% | ||||||
| USD | Goods Trade Balance | -72.4B | -74.5B | ||||||
| USD | Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m | 0.5% | 0.4% | ||||||
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 220K | 216K | ||||||
| 3:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 62B | ||||||
| FriJul 26 | 12:30am | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 0.8% | 0.9% | ||||
| 7:00am | EUR | German Import Prices m/m | -0.8% | -0.1% | |||||
| 1:30pm | USD | Advance GDP q/q | 1.8% | 3.1% | |||||
| USD | Advance GDP Price Index q/q | 4.0% | 0.9% | ||||||
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.
| EUR/USD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.1210/26 | 1.1273/1.1570 | 1.1791/1.1852 |
| Spot: | 1.1210 | Support: | 1.1136/1.1205 | 1.1107/12 | 1.0906/12 |
| USD/JPY | Mildly Lower | Resistance: | 108.11/109.15 | 110.37/112.56 | 113.38/114.21 |
| Spot: | 107.87 | Support: | 107.80/81 | 106.78/107.53 | 105.35/55 |
| GBP/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 1.2558/1.2712 | 1.2773/1.2987 | 1.3102/76 |
| Spot: | 1.2478 | Support: | 1.2440/1.2477 | 1.2382 | 1.21096 |
| AUD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.7035/0.7168 | 0.7192/0.7246 | 0.7295/0.7393 |
| Spot: | 0.7035 | Support: | 0.6909/0.7003 | 0.6827/66 | 0.6697/0.6753 |
| USD/CAD | Lower | Resistance: | 1.3112/1.3203 | 1.3226/1.3403 | 1.3422/1.3598 |
| Spot: | 1.3110 | Support: | 1.3018/81 | 1.2970 | 1.2916/27 |
| NZD/USD | Higher | Resistance: | 0.6774/0.6980 | 0.7060 | 0.7292/0.7438 |
| Spot: | 0.6764 | Support: | 0.6656/0.6739 | 0.6544/0.6586 | 0.6424/0.6501 |
Disclaimer:
TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.
Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com. You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk
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