Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for December 2nd

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

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ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar shows considerable activity and begins with Monday’s release of UK Manufacturing PMI, Australian Building Approvals and Company Operating Profits, as well as U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, the RBA releases its Cash Rate and Rate Statement, in addition to the Australian Current Account. Also among Tuesday’s highlights will be UK Construction PMI and a speech by BOE Governor Mark Carney.

Wednesday then features the BOC’s Overnight Rate and Rate Statement, Australian GDP, UK Services PMI, U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, plus a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi and testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Thursday will see the release of Australian Retail Sales and the Trade Balance, Canadian Retail Sales, a speech by BOC Governor Stephen Poloz and the OPEC Meetings. The week concludes with Friday’s closely-watched release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings; plus the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also speak on Friday.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
                   
SunDec 2 9:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 51.3 58.3
9:45pm NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q -0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
 11:50pm JPY Capital Spending q/y 8.6% 12.8%
MonDec 3 12:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.1%
12:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m -1.4% 3.3%
AUD Company Operating Profits q/q 2.9% 2.0%
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.2%
JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 51.8 51.8
1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.1 50.1
5:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 13.1%
8:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y -0.7% -2.7%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.8
8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 56.3 57.4
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 48.9 49.2
8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 50.7 50.7
8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 51.6 51.6
9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.5
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 51.6 51.1
11:30am USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
1:00pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
2:15pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 53.9
2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 55.4 55.4
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.5 57.7
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.4% 0.0%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 70.1 71.6
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 17.3M 17.6M
3:30pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
5:30pm GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
11:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 5.7% 5.9%
TueDec 4 12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 0.1%
12:30am AUD Current Account -10.2B -13.5B
3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50%
3:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.14|4.3
7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -87.1B
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 34.2K 52.2K
8:15am CHF CPI m/m -0.1% 0.2%
9:15am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 52.5 53.2
10:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.5% 0.5%
1:30pm CAD Labor Productivity q/q 0.4% 0.7%
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -3.5%
3:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
6:00pm GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
9:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 51.1
WedDec 5 12:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -2.4%
12:30am AUD GDP q/q 0.6% 0.9%
1:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 50.7 50.8
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 53.9 54.0
8:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 49.2 49.2
8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 55.0 55.0
8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 53.3 53.3
9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 53.1 53.1
9:30am GBP Services PMI 52.5 52.2
GBP FPC Meeting Minutes
10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.0%
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 1.61|1.6
1:15pm USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 196K 227K
1:30pm USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 2.3% 2.2%
USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.1% 1.2%
2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 54.4 54.4
3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 1.75% 1.75%
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 59.2 60.3
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 57.3 56.4
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.6M
7:00pm USD Beige Book
ThuDec 6 12:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
AUD Trade Balance 3.00B 3.02B
1:15am USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m -0.4% 0.3%
9:05am AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
All Day All OPEC Meetings
10:00am GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
Tentative GBP 30-y Bond Auction 1.83|1.8
12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 153.6%
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -0.4B
USD Trade Balance -55.2B -54.0B
USD Unemployment Claims 226K 234K
1:35pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 60.3 61.8
USD Factory Orders m/m -1.9% 0.7%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -59B
5:15pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
9:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 46.4
11:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y 1.2% -1.6%
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
11:45pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
FriDec 7 12:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 1.0% 0.8%
5:00am JPY Leading Indicators 104.8% 104.3%
7:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 0.2%
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.8% -1.8%
EUR French Trade Balance -6.0B -5.7B
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 753B
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.3% 0.7%
9:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% -0.8%
9:30am GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.0%
10:00am EUR Final Employment Change q/q 0.2% 0.2%
EUR Revised GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
1:30pm CAD Employment Change 11.2K
CAD Unemployment Rate 5.8%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.2%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 200K 250K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.7%
3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.1 97.5
USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.7% 0.7%
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%
5:00pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 15.1B 10.9B
SatDec 8 Tentative CNY Trade Balance 234B
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 36.2B 34.0B

 


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

 

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1336/66 1.1401/72 1.1500/1.1852
Spot: 1.1331 Support: 1.1301/05 1.1267/98 1.1216
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 114.03/114.95 115.50 116.19
Spot: 113.81 Support: 112.95/113.66 111.13/112.56 109.78/110.90
   
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2812/49 1.2897/1.2958 1.3011/87
Spot: 1.2738 Support: 1.2696/1.2726 1.2589/1.2635 1.2347/66
 
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7362/82 0.7453/0.7503 0.7676
Spot: 0.7356 Support: 0.7302/44 0.7199/0.7265 0.7021/0.7182
   
USD/CAD Lower Resistance: 1.3263/1.3318 1.3359/88 1.3455
Spot: 1.3261 Support: 1.3159/1.3226 1.3048/1.3127 1.2858/1.2987
   
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6910 0.6980/0.7060 0.7132/77
Spot: 0.6898 Support: 0.6781/0.6885 0.6676/0.6762 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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