Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for May 13th, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

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www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

After a failure to reach a trade accord during talks last week, the U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday, followed by Chinese retaliation on Monday. This week’s economic calendar is light and begins with a speech on Monday by FOMC member Richard Clarida.

On Tuesday, highlights include the UK Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate, the EZ and German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey, and a speech by FOMC member John Williams. Wednesday’s key releases include the Australian Wage Price Index, EZ Flash GDP, Canadian CPI, and U.S. Core Retail and Retail Sales.

Thursday’s highlights include the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, Canadian Manufacturing Sales, a speech by BOC Governor Stephen Poloz and the tentative release of the U.S. Treasury Report.

Friday’s notable events include a speech by FOMC member Clarida and the U.S. Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index. The week concludes on Saturday with the Australian Parliamentary Elections for 150 members of the Australian Lower House of Parliament.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Consensus Previous  
SunMay 12 11:45pm NZD FPI m/m -0.1% 0.5%
MonMay 13 2:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -2.5% 2.2% 1.4%
6:00am JPY Leading Indicators 96.3% 96.4% 97.1%
8:00am AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
2:10pm USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
 10:30pm CAD Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
11:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -1.5%
TueMay 14 12:50am JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.3% 2.4%
JPY Current Account 1.71T 1.96T
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 0
4:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.54|4.6
6:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 45.9 44.8
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 1.0% 1.0%
EUR German WPI m/m 0.4% 0.3%
7:30am CHF PPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
14th-18th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 6.5%
8:15am USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.4% 3.5%
GBP Unemployment Rate 3.9% 3.9%
GBP Claimant Count Change 24.2K 28.3K
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 5.1 3.1
EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.3% -0.2%
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 5.0 4.5
11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 102.3 101.8
1:30pm USD Import Prices m/m 0.7% 0.6%
14th-15th USD Mortgage Delinquencies 4.06%
5:45pm USD FOMC Member George Speaks
WedMay 15 12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.3% 2.4%
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 1.9%
2:30am AUD Wage Price Index q/q 0.6% 0.5%
3:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 6.4% 6.3%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 6.5% 8.5%
CNY Retail Sales y/y 8.6% 8.7%
CNY Unemployment Rate 5.2%
7:00am EUR German Prelim GDP q/q 0.4% 0.0%
JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -28.5%
7:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
10:00am EUR Flash GDP q/q 0.4% 0.4%
EUR Flash Employment Change q/q 0.2% 0.3%
Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 0.68|2.1
1:30pm CAD CPI m/m 0.7%
CAD Common CPI y/y 1.8%
CAD Median CPI y/y 2.0%
CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 2.1%
CAD Core CPI m/m 0.3%
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 1.2%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 1.6%
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 8.2 10.1
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.7% 78.8%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.0% -0.1%
2:30pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
3:00pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.0% 0.3%
USD NAHB Housing Market Index 64 63
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.0M
9:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 36.3B 51.9B
ThuMay 16 12:50am JPY PPI y/y 1.1% 1.3%
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.9%
2:30am AUD Employment Change 15.2K 25.7K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.0% 5.0%
3:45am AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
9:15am EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
10:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 4.24B 3.27B
EUR Trade Balance 19.0B 19.5B
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.2%
CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 13.2K
CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 12.05B
USD Building Permits 1.29M 1.29M
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10.0 8.5
USD Housing Starts 1.21M 1.14M
USD Unemployment Claims 220K 228K
3:30pm CAD BOC Financial System Review
USD Natural Gas Storage 85B
4:15pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
5:15pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
6:30pm GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks
Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report
11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 51.9
11:45pm NZD PPI Input q/q 1.6%
NZD PPI Output q/q 0.8%
FriMay 17 5:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.1% -0.6%
10:00am EUR Final CPI y/y 1.7% 1.7%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.2% 1.2%
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.8 97.2%
USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.2% 0.4%
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.5%
6:40pm USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
SatMay 18 All Day AUD Parliamentary Elections

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1265/1.1371 1.1419/1.1570 1.1791/1.1815
Spot: 1.1238 Support: 1.1174/1.1234 1.1112 1.0912
           
USD/JPY Mildly Lower Resistance: 119.37/111.38 111.77/90 112.08/56
Spot: 109.15 Support: 109.09/14 108.11/50 107.29
     
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.2969/78 1.3070/1.3132 1.3160/1.3381
Spot: 1.2969 Support: 1.2925/67 1.2773/1.2883 1.2662/96
   
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6963/0.7168 0.7192/0.7246 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.6952 Support: 0.6909 0.6827 0.6734
     
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3467 1.3505/65 1.3664
Spot: 1.3455 Support: 1.3319/1.3450 1.3287/1.3296 1.3127/1.3242
     
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6586 0.6614/0.6837 0.6873/0.6969
Spot: 0.6575 Support: 0.6501/44 0.6424/0.6465 0.6347

Disclaimer:

 

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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