Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for July 15th, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar starts with Monday’s release of New Zealand CPI and a speech by FOMC Member John Williams. On Tuesday, highlights include the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, the UK Average Earnings Index, and U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, in addition to speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and FOMC Member Charles Evans.

Wednesday’s releases begin with UK CPI and PPI Input, Canadian CPI and U.S. Building Permits. Thursday then features the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, UK Retail Sales, the BOE’s Credit Conditions Survey and a speech by FOMC Member John Williams.

The week concludes on Friday with the release of UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, Canadian Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. FOMC members Bullard and Rosengran will also give speeches on Friday.

 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Consensus Previous
SunJul 14 11:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -0.2% -3.2%
MonJul 15 12:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -0.2% 0.3%
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
2:58am CNY GDP q/y 6.2% 6.2% 6.4%
3:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 5.8% 5.6% 5.6%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 6.3% 5.2% 5.0%
CNY NBS Press Conference
CNY Retail Sales y/y 9.8% 8.5% 8.6%
CNY Unemployment Rate 5.1% 5.0%
7:30am CHF PPI m/m -0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
 1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 1.6 -8.6
1:50pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
11:45pm NZD CPI q/q 0.6% 0.1%
TueJul 16 2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
9:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 2.91B 2.89B
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.1% 3.1%
GBP Claimant Count Change 18.9K 23.2K
GBP Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.8%
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -22.1 -21.1
EUR Trade Balance 16.4B 15.3B
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -20.9 -20.2
1:15pm USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases -12.80B
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.1% 0.5%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.1% 0.5%
USD Import Prices m/m -0.7% -0.3%
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.2% 78.1%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.4%
3:00pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.5%
USD NAHB Housing Market Index 64 64
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -0.4%
6:00pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
8:30pm USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
9:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 32.3B 46.9B
WedJul 17 1:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m -0.1%
9:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.0% 2.0%
GBP PPI Input m/m -1.0% 0.0%
GBP Core CPI y/y 1.8% 1.7%
GBP HPI y/y 1.2% 1.4%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.1% 0.3%
GBP RPI y/y 2.9% 3.0%
10:00am EUR Final CPI y/y 1.2% 1.2%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.1% 1.1%
Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 0.26|1.6
1:30pm CAD CPI m/m -0.3% 0.4%
CAD Common CPI y/y 1.8% 1.8%
CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.6% -0.6%
CAD Median CPI y/y 2.1% 2.1%
CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 2.2% 2.3%
CAD Core CPI m/m 0.4%
USD Building Permits 1.30M 1.29M
USD Housing Starts 1.26M 1.27M
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -9.5M
7:00pm USD Beige Book
ThuJul 18 12:50am JPY Trade Balance -0.14T -0.61T
2:30am AUD Employment Change 9.1K 42.3K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.2% 5.2%
AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence -1
7:00am CHF Trade Balance 3.21B 3.41B
9:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.3% -0.5%
GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
1:30pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -16.0K
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 5.0 0.3
USD Unemployment Claims 216K 209K
3:00pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.0%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 81B
7:15pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
FriJul 19 12:30am JPY National Core CPI y/y 0.6% 0.8%
4:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 6.6%
5:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.3% 0.9%
7:00am EUR German PPI m/m -0.1% -0.1%
9:00am EUR Current Account 21.2B 20.9B
9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 3.4B 4.5B
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.1%
CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.1%
3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.6 98.2
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.7%
4:05pm USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
9:30pm USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1273/1.1570 1.1791/1.1815 1.1852
Spot: 1.1272 Support: 1.1136/1.1226 1.1107/12 1.0906/12
 
USD/JPY Mildly Lower Resistance: 108.11/109.15 110.37/112.56 113.38/114.21
Spot: 107.98 Support: 107.80/81 106.78/107.53 105.35/55
   
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.2605/1.2712 1.2773/1.2987 1.3102/76
Spot: 1.2568 Support: 1.2440/1.2559 1.21096 1.1973/88
 
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7035/0.7168 0.7192/0.7246 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.7034 Support: 0.6909/0.7003 0.6827/66 0.6697/0.6753
   
USD/CAD Lower Resistance: 1.3037/1.3203 1.3226/1.3403 1.3422/1.3598
Spot: 1.3024 Support: 1.3018 1.2970 1.2916/27
   
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6726/0.6980 0.7060 0.7292/0.7438
Spot: 0.6722 Support: 0.6656/0.6718 0.6544/0.6586 0.6424/0.6501

Disclaimer:

 

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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