Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for July 8th, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar begins with Sunday’s Greek Parliamentary Elections. On Monday, the only significant economic event is a speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda. Tuesday’s highlights include a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Wednesday will see the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, and UK GDP and Manufacturing Production, in addition to the BOC’s Overnight Rate, Monetary Policy Report and Rate Statement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also due to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington DC.

Thursday’s releases include U.S. CPI and Core CPI, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, the BOE’s Financial Stability Report, and the second day of testimony for Fed Chair Powell. The week concludes with Friday’s release of U.S. PPI and Core PPI.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Consensus Previous  
SunJul 7 All Day EUR Greek Parliamentary Election
MonJul 8 12:50am JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.3% 2.6% 2.6%
JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -7.8% -3.6% 5.2%
JPY Current Account 1.31T 1.24T 1.60T
1:30am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 4.6% -8.2%
6:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 44.0 43.9 44.1
7:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 0.4% -2.0%
EUR German Trade Balance 18.7B 16.8B 16.9B
 9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 0.3 -3.3
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 15.2B 17.5B
TueJul 9 12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y -1.5% -3.0%
12:30am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y -0.6% -0.1%
12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.6% 2.7%
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 7
6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.4% 2.4%
7:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -27.3%
9:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.0%
10th-14th CNY New Loans 1650B 1180B
10th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.6% 8.5%
11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 103.2 105.0
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 209K 202K
1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m 14.7%
1:45pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 7.51M 7.45M
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 54.1 53.2
3:10pm USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
7:00pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
11:45pm NZD FPI m/m 0.7%
WedJul 10 12:50am JPY PPI y/y 0.4% 0.7%
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -0.6%
2:30am CNY CPI y/y 2.7% 2.7%
CNY PPI y/y 0.3% 0.6%
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 0.4%
9:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.7%
9:30am GBP GDP m/m 0.3% -0.4%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 2.2% -3.9%
GBP Construction Output m/m 0.4% -0.4%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -12.5B -12.1B
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.1% 0.2%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 1.6% -2.7%
Tentative GBP 30-y Bond Auction
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction -0.24|1.7
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.1%
3:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 1.75% 1.75%
USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.4%
3:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.1M
6:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.07|3.4
6:10pm GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
6:30pm USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
ThuJul 11 12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -12% -10%
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.3%
2:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -0.6% -1.2%
5:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.1% 0.8%
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.3% 0.3%
7:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
11th-17th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 6.8%
10:30am GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
GBP FPC Statement
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
1:30pm CAD NHPI m/m 0.0%
USD CPI m/m 0.0% 0.1%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
USD Unemployment Claims 220K 221K
2:10pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
3:00pm USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 89B
6:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 2.61|2.3
6:30pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -207.8B
11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 50.2
FriJul 12 Tentative CNY Trade Balance 276B 279B
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 45.2B 41.7B
5:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 2.3% 2.3%
Tentative EUR German WPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
9:30am GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 0.2% -0.5%
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
1:30pm USD PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
2:30pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.2%

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1273/1.1570 1.1791/1.1815 1.1852
Spot: 1.1230 Support: 1.1136/1.1226 1.1107/12 1.0906/12
           
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 108.50/109.15 110.37/112.56 113.38/114.21
Spot: 108.39 Support: 107.81/108.11 106.78/107.53 105.35/55
           
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2559 1.2605/1.2712 1.2773/1.2987
Spot: 1.2530 Support: 1.2447/1.2506 1.21096 1.1973/88
         
AUD/USD Mildly Higher Resistance: 0.7003/0.7168 0.7192/0.7246 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.6988 Support: 0.6909/88 0.6827/66 0.6697/0.6753
           
USD/CAD Lower Resistance: 1.3112/1.3203 1.3226/1.3403 1.3422/1.3598
Spot: 1.3072 Support: 1.3037/72 1.2970 1.2916/27
           
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6656/0.6980 0.7060 0.7292/0.7438
Spot: 0.6646 Support: 0.6544/0.6586 0.6424/0.6501 0.6347

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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