Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for July 1st, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s busy calendar begins on Monday with the OPEC Meetings in Vienna, in addition to data releases that include UK Manufacturing PMI and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, Australian numbers dominate the calendar, featuring the RBA’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement, a speech by RBA Governor Lowe, the Australian Trade Balance and Australian Building Approvals.

Wednesday will see the release of UK Services PMI, U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, the Canadian Trade Balance, Australian Retail Sales and U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. No high impact releases are scheduled for Thursday in part due to the U.S. Independence Day bank holiday.

The week concludes on Friday with the release of key U.S. jobs data, including Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. The Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate are also due out on Friday.

 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Consensus Previous
SunJun 30 2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.4 49.5 49.4
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.2 54.2 54.3
11:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 49.4 52.7
MonJul 1 12:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 7 9 12
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 23 20 21
1:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 49.3 49.5 49.5
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.0% 0.0%
2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.4 50.1 50.2
6:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 38.7 39.2 39.4
7:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 13.0% 11.5%
CHF Retail Sales y/y -1.7% 0.6% -0.7%
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 47.9 49.6 50.1
8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 47.7 48.9 48.6
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 48.4 48.7 49.7
8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 51.9 52.0 52.0
8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 45.0 45.4 45.4
EUR German Unemployment Change -1K 1K 60K
9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 47.6 47.8 47.8
EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 4.8% 4.6% 4.7%
EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 9.9% 10.3% 10.1%
EUR Private Loans y/y 3.3% 3.5% 3.4%
 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 49.5 49.4
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.6% 0.9%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 66K 66K
GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.1B 5.2B
10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 7.6% 7.6%
All Day All OPEC Meetings
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 50.1 50.1
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 51.3 52.1
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.1% 0.0%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 52.9 53.2
11:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence -29
11:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m -7.9%
TueJul 2 12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 3.4% 3.6%
4:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction -0.11|4.0
5:30am AUD Cash Rate 1.00% 1.25%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -2.0%
GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.2% -0.2%
7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -67.2B
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -90.0K -84.1K
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 49.4 48.6
10:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.1% -0.3%
All Day All OPEC-JMMC Meetings
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 0.89|2.1
11:35am USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 49.1
All Day USD Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.0M 17.3M
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -3.8%
10:30pm AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
11:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 52.5
WedJul 3 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 0.8%
2:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 0.0%
2:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 0.0% -4.7%
AUD Trade Balance 5.25B 4.87B
2:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 52.6 52.7
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 52.7 52.8
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 50.0 50.0
8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 53.1 53.1
8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 55.6 55.6
9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 53.4 53.4
9:30am GBP Services PMI 51.0 51.0
12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 85.9%
1:15pm GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 140K 27K
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -1.0B
USD Trade Balance -53.2B -50.8B
USD Unemployment Claims 220K 227K
2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 50.7 50.7
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.1 56.9
USD Factory Orders m/m -0.4% -0.8%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -12.8M
5:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 98B
ThuJul 4 2:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.1%
4:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.32|3.5
7:30am CHF CPI m/m -0.1% 0.3%
9:30am GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q -6.9B -6.2B
10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -0.4%
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.14|2.6
All Day USD Bank Holiday
11:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 40.4
FriJul 5 12:30am JPY Household Spending y/y 1.4% 1.3%
6:00am JPY Leading Indicators 95.3% 95.9%
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m -0.1% 0.3%
7:45am EUR French Trade Balance -4.8B -5.0B
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 760B
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m -0.4% 0.5%
1:30pm CAD Employment Change 27.7K
CAD Unemployment Rate 5.4%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.2%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 164K 75K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.6% 3.6%
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 56.2 55.9

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1343/1.1570 1.1791/1.1815 1.1852
Spot: 1.1326 Support: 1.1273/1.1324 1.1136/1.1226 1.1107/12
 
USD/JPY Mildly Higher Resistance: 108.50/109.15 110.37/112.56 113.38/114.21
Spot: 108.37 Support: 107.81/108.11 106.78/107.29 105.35/55
   
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.2668/1.2712 1.2773/1.2883 1.2925/87
Spot: 1.2670 Support: 1.2605/62 1.2559 1.2447/1.2506
 
AUD/USD Mildly Lower Resistance: 0.7003/0.7168 0.7192/0.7246 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.6999 Support: 0.6909/88 0.6827/66 0.6697/0.6753
   
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3112/1.3203 1.3226/1.3403 1.3422/1.3598
Spot: 1.3090 Support: 1.3048/72 1.2970 1.2916/27
   
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6706/0.6980 0.7060 0.7292/0.7438
Spot: 0.6700 Support: 0.6544/0.6689 0.6424/0.6501 0.6347

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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