Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for April 15th, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is moderately active and begins with the release of the BOC’s Business Outlook Survey on Monday. Tuesday’s highlights include the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, the UK Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey, and New Zealand CPI.

On Wednesday, releases include UK CPI, PPI Input and RPI, the Canadian CPI and Trade Balance, speeches by BOE Governor Carney and FOMC member Bullard, and the OPEC Meetings in Vienna. Thursday’s highlights include the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, the EZ, German and French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs, UK Retail Sales, Canadian Core Retail Sales, and U.S. Core Retail Sales.

The week concludes with most countries observing the Good Friday bank holiday, although the U.S. Treasury Currency Report and Building Permits are due out.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Consensus Previous  
SunApr 14 Day 3 All IMF Meetings
MonApr 15 12:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 1.1% 0.4%
7:30am CHF PPI m/m 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
11:00am EUR German Buba Monthly Report
1:30pm USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 10.1 8.1 3.7
3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
5:00pm GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks
6:00pm USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
9:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 51.9B -18.2B -7.2B
TueApr 16 1:00am USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
5:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.6% -0.2% 0.6%
 9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.5% 3.4%
GBP Unemployment Rate 3.9% 3.9%
GBP Claimant Count Change 17.3K 27.0K
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 0.9 -3.6
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 1.2 -2.5
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.1% 1.0%
CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 27.34B 28.40B
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 79.2% 78.2%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.2% 0.1%
3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 63 62
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 0.8%
11:45pm NZD CPI q/q 0.3% 0.1%
WedApr 17 12:50am JPY Trade Balance -0.30T 0.12T
1:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.0%
3:00am CNY GDP q/y 6.3% 6.4%
CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 6.3% 6.1%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 5.6% 5.3%
CNY NBS Press Conference
CNY Retail Sales y/y 8.3% 8.2%
CNY Unemployment Rate 5.3%
5:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 1.4% 1.4%
17th-18th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 5.5%
9:00am EUR Current Account 33.2B 36.8B
EUR Italian Trade Balance 2.6M 0.32B
9:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.0% 1.9%
GBP PPI Input m/m 0.3% 0.6%
GBP RPI y/y 2.6% 2.5%
GBP Core CPI y/y 1.9% 1.8%
GBP HPI y/y 1.3% 1.7%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.2% 0.1%
10:00am EUR Final CPI y/y 1.4% 1.4%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 0.8% 0.8%
EUR Trade Balance 16.8B 17.0B
All Day All OPEC Meetings
Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 0.74|1.5
1:30pm CAD CPI m/m 0.7% 0.7%
CAD Trade Balance -3.5B -4.2B
CAD Common CPI y/y 1.8% 1.8%
CAD Median CPI y/y 1.8% 1.8%
CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 1.8% 1.9%
CAD Core CPI m/m 0.7%
USD Trade Balance -53.5B -51.1B
2:00pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
3:00pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 1.2%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 7.0M
5:45pm USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
7:00pm USD Beige Book
ThuApr 18 1:30am JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.9
2:30am AUD Employment Change 15.2K 4.6K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.0% 4.9%
AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 1
7:00am CHF Trade Balance 2.87B 3.13B
EUR German PPI m/m 0.2% -0.1%
8:15am EUR French Flash Services PMI 49.8 49.1
EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.0 49.7
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 45.2 44.1
EUR German Flash Services PMI 55.0 55.4
9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.1 47.5
EUR Flash Services PMI 53.1 53.3
9:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.3% 0.4%
GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.1%
CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -0.3%
CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 36.2K
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.7% -0.4%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.9% -0.2%
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 11.2 13.7
USD Unemployment Claims 207K 196K
2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.4
USD Flash Services PMI 55.0 55.3
3:00pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.8%
USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.4% 0.2%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 25B
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
FriApr 19 12:30am JPY National Core CPI y/y 0.7% 0.7%
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.30M 1.29M
USD Housing Starts 1.23M 1.16M
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.1305/71 1.1419/1.1570 1.1621/59
Spot: 1.1304 Support: 1.1210/89 1.1177/84 1.0912
           
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 112.08/56 113.71/114.55 115.50
Spot: 111.94 Support: 111.82/90 110.79/111.38 109.09/110.35
     
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.3098/1.3132 1.3160/1.3196 1.3217/1.3381
Spot: 1.3090 Support: 1.3070 1.2930/1.3004 1.2773/1.2883
   
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7168 0.7192/0.7246 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.7150 Support: 0.7003/0.7132 0.6909 0.6827
     
USD/CAD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.3396/1.3467 1.3565 1.3664
Spot: 1.3380 Support: 1.3319/74 1.3287/1.3296 1.3127/1.3242
     
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6767/0.6837 0.6873/0.6969 0.7060
Spot: 0.6762 Support: 0.6630.6758 0.6501/86 0.6424/0.6465

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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