Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for April 8th, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is moderately busy, and its highlights begin with a speech on Tuesday by FOMC Member Richard Clarida. On Wednesday, highlights include the ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate, Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement, in addition to UK GDP and Manufacturing Production, U.S. CPI and Core CPI, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes for the most recent meeting.

On Thursday, the OPEC meetings will begin in Vienna, while economic releases include U.S. PPI and Core PPI. Thursday will also feature speeches by three FOMC members: Bullard, Clarida and Bowman, plus a speech by the RBA’s Assistant Governor Guy Debelle. The week concludes with Friday’s release of the RBA’s Financial Stability Report, as well as U.S. releases including the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index and the U.S. Treasury Currency Report.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Consensus Previous  
MonApr 8 12:50am JPY Current Account 1.96T 1.96T 1.83T
2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -1.7% -0.8%
6:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 40.5 41.5 41.5
7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 18.7B 19.0B 18.6B
JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 44.8 47.6 47.5
9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -0.3 -1.7 -2.2
GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.2% 3.2%
1:13pm CAD Housing Starts 193K 193K 166K
1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m -5.7% 2.0% -6.0%
3:00pm USD Factory Orders m/m -0.5% -0.5% 0.0%
TueApr 9  12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y -0.1%
2:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -3.0% -2.6%
6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.4% 2.4%
9:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% 0.5%
11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 101.3 101.7
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 1.16|2.1
3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 7.54M 7.58M
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 53.2 55.7
11:45pm USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
WedApr 10 12:50am JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.3% 2.3%
JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 3.0% -5.4%
JPY PPI y/y 1.0% 0.8%
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -4.8%
3:30am AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
7:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -29.3%
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 1.3%
9:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.5% 1.7%
9:30am GBP GDP m/m 0.2% 0.5%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.2% 0.8%
GBP Construction Output m/m -0.2% 2.8%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -12.5B -13.1B
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.4% 0.5%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.6%
12:45pm EUR Main Refinancing Rate 0.00% 0.00%
EUR Monetary Policy Statement
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference
USD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.1%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.8M
4:50pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
6:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.62|2.6
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
USD Federal Budget Balance -194.7B -234.0B
11:45pm NZD FPI m/m 0.4%
ThuApr 11 12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -30% -28%
12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.4% 2.4%
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 4.1%
2:30am CNY CPI y/y 2.4% 1.5%
CNY PPI y/y 0.4% 0.1%
3:30am AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.4% 0.4%
7:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 0.8% 0.8%
11th-15th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.2% 8.0%
11th-15th CNY New Loans 1223B 886B
All Day All OPEC Meetings
1:30pm CAD NHPI m/m -0.1%
USD PPI m/m 0.3% 0.1%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
USD Unemployment Claims
2:30pm USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
2:40pm USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 23B
6:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.01|2.3
9:00pm USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 53.7
11:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -0.1%
FriApr 12 2:30am AUD RBA Financial Stability Review
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 2B 34B
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 7.7B 4.1B
12th-17th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 5.5%
10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.5% 1.4%
1:30pm USD Import Prices m/m 0.4% 0.6%
2:30pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.4%
3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.1 98.4
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.5%
Day 1 All IMF Meetings
Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report
SatApr 13 Day 2 All IMF Meetings

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1267/1.1371 1.1419/1.1570 1.1621/59
Spot: 1.1262 Support: 1.1210/55 1.1177/84 1.0912
           
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 111.82/112.56 113.71/114.55 115.50
Spot: 111.48 Support: 110.79/111.38 109.56/110.35 109.09/14
     
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.3070/98 1.3160/1.3196 1.3217/1.3381
Spot: 1.3070 Support: 1.2930/1.3004 1.2839/83 1.2773/1.2803
   
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7132/68 0.7199/0.7246 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.7129 Support: 0.7003/98 0.6909 0.6827
     
USD/CAD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.3319/74 1.3403/67 1.3565
Spot: 1.3310 Support: 1.3287/1.3296 1.3127/1.3242 1.3048/69
     
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6753/0.6837 0.6873/0.6969 0.7060
Spot: 0.6746 Support: 0.6720/0.6745 0.6676/0.6707 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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