Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for March 31st, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is mildly active and begins with Monday’s release of U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, UK Manufacturing PMI, EZ Core CPI Flash Estimate and a speech by BOC Governor Stephen Poloz.

On Tuesday, highlights include the RBA’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement, Australian Building Approvals and Annual Budget Release, and U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders.

Wednesday’s releases begin with Australian Retail Sales and Trade Balance, UK Services PMI, U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI. Thursday’s releases are limited to the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and Canadian Ivey PMI.

The week concludes with Friday’s release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate, as well as the Canadian Employment Change and the Canadian Unemployment Rate.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Consensus Previous  
SunMar 31 2:00am CHF Daylight Saving Time Shift
CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.5 49.6 49.2
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.8 54.5 54.3
EUR Daylight Saving Time Shift
GBP Daylight Saving Time Shift
10:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 51.0 54.0
MonApr 1 12:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 12 13 19
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 21 22 24
1:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.4% 0.1%
1:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 0 2
JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 49.2 48.9 48.9
 2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.9
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -1.8%
6:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 9.1%
7:30am CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.3% -0.4%
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 49.8 49.9
8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 53.6 55.4
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 47.6 47.7
8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 49.8 49.8
8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 44.7 44.7
9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 47.6 47.6
EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.5% 10.5%
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 51.2 52.0
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.5% 1.5%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.9% 1.0%
EUR Unemployment Rate 7.8% 7.8%
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.9%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 52.6
2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 52.5
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.2
USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.6%
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.1% 1.3%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 49.4
7:55pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
10:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence -17
TueApr 2 12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 4.4% 4.6%
1:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m -1.7% 2.5%
4:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50%
4:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.00|4.3
7:30am CHF CPI m/m 0.4% 0.4%
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -33.3K 3.3K
9:30am AUD Annual Budget Release
GBP Construction PMI 49.8 49.5
10:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4%
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.3% -0.2%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m -1.1% 0.3%
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 1.9%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 16.7M 16.6M
10:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 44.5
WedApr 3 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 0.7%
1:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 2.8%
1:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.1%
AUD Trade Balance 3.71B 4.55B
2:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 52.3 51.1
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 55.0 54.5
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 50.9 50.4
8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 48.7 48.7
8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 54.9 54.9
9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 52.7 52.7
9:30am GBP Services PMI 51.0 51.3
10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 1.3%
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 184K 183K
2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 54.8 54.8
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 59.7
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.8M
ThuApr 4 4:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.62|4.6
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 0.3% -2.6%
9:30am GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q -7.7B -8.5B
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 117.2%
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 215K 211K
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 51.4 50.6
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -36B
10:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 43.8
FriApr 5 12:30am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.9% 1.2%
JPY Household Spending y/y 1.9% 2.0%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
6:00am JPY Leading Indicators 97.3% 96.5%
7:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.6% -0.8%
7:45am EUR French Trade Balance -4.7B -4.2B
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 739B
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m -2.5% 5.9%
1:30pm CAD Employment Change -10.0K 55.9K
CAD Unemployment Rate 5.8% 5.8%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.4%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 175K 20K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.8%
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 17.5B 17.0B
SatApr 6 3:00pm NZD Daylight Saving Time Shift
5:00pm AUD Daylight Saving Time Shift

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.1234/1.1371 1.1419/1.1570 1.1621/59
Spot: 1.1225 Support: 1.1210/16 1.1177 1.0912
           
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 111.13/111.38 111.90/112.56 113.71/114.55
Spot: 111.05 Support: 110.79/111.01 109.56/110.35 109.09/14
     
GBP/USD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.3070/98 1.3160/1.3185 1.3217/1.3381
Spot: 1.3016 Support: 1.2930/1.3004 1.2839/83 1.2773/1.2803
   
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7145/68 0.7199/0.7246 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.7113 Support: 0.7003/98 0.6909 0.6827
     
USD/CAD Lower Resistance: 1.3359/74 1.3424/67 1.3565
Spot: 1.3353 Support: 1.3287/1.3341 1.3127/1.3242 1.3048/69
     
NZD/USD Mildly Higher Resistance: 0.6827 0.6873/0.6969 0.7060
Spot: 0.6818 Support: 0.6720/0.6812 0.6676/0.6707 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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