Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for March 17th, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is fairly busy and begins on Monday with an interview with Fed Chair Jerome Powell on U.S. television show 60 minutes and a speech by MPC member Jonathan Haskel, as well as U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.

Tuesday’s highlights feature UK GDP, Manufacturing Production, U.S. CPI and Core CPI, a speech by Fed Chair Powell and a tentative vote on Brexit in the UK Parliament. Wednesday’s releases then include the UK’s Annual Budget Release, U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders and Core PPI.

Thursday’s single key event will be a speech by BOC Governing Council Member Carolyn Wilkins. The week concludes with Friday’s release of Canadian Manufacturing Sales, the Preliminary University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index and the tentative release of the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Statement along with the associated BOJ Press Conference and a speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
MonMar 18  12:50am JPY Trade Balance 0.09T -0.37T
1:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 0.7%
5:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -3.7% -3.7%
11:00am EUR Trade Balance 17.2B 15.6B
12:00pm EUR German Buba Monthly Report
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases -18.96B
3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 63 62
9:00pm NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 109.1
11:00pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
TueMar 19 1:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD HPI q/q -1.9% -1.5%
8:00am CHF Trade Balance 2.88B 3.04B
10:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.45B 3.66B
10:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.2% 3.4%
GBP Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
GBP Claimant Count Change 13.1K 14.2K
11:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -11.0 -13.4
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -15.1 -16.6
3:00pm USD Factory Orders m/m 0.3% 0.1%
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 3.3%
Tentative GBP Parliament Brexit Vote
Tentative CAD Annual Budget Release
10:45pm NZD Current Account -3.55B -6.15B
WedMar 20 12:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.0%
12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
1:00am AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
8:00am EUR German PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4%
10:30am GBP CPI y/y 1.8% 1.8%
GBP PPI Input m/m 0.6% -0.1%
GBP RPI y/y 2.5% 2.5%
GBP Core CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
GBP HPI y/y 2.3% 2.5%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.1% 0.0%
12:00pm GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 5 6
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.9M
7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections
USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate <2.50% <2.50%
7:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
10:45pm NZD GDP q/q 0.6% 0.3%
ThuMar 21 All Day JPY Bank Holiday
1:30am AUD Employment Change 15.2K 39.1K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.0% 5.0%
AUD RBA Bulletin
3:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 6.9%
9:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
CHF Libor Rate -0.75% -0.75%
10:00am CHF SNB Press Conference
EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
10:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.4% 1.0%
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing -0.3B -15.8B
All Day EUR EU Economic Summit
1:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B 435B
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
1:30pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 35.4K
CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.3%
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 6.1 -4.1
USD Unemployment Claims 226K 229K
3:00pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.1% -0.1%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -204B
11:00pm AUD Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.1
AUD Flash Services PMI 49.3
FriMar 22 12:30am JPY National Core CPI y/y 0.8% 0.8%
1:30am JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.2 48.9
9:15am EUR French Flash Services PMI 50.6 50.2
EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.5
9:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.0 47.6
EUR German Flash Services PMI 54.8 55.3
10:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.6 49.3
EUR Flash Services PMI 52.7 52.8
EUR Current Account 17.3B 16.2B
1:00pm GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
1:30pm CAD CPI m/m 0.1%
CAD Core Retail Sales m/m -0.5%
CAD Common CPI y/y 1.9%
CAD Median CPI y/y 1.8%
CAD Retail Sales m/m -0.1%
CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 1.9%
CAD Core CPI m/m 0.3%
2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.0 53.0
USD Flash Services PMI 56.6 56.0
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.10M 4.94M
USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m -1.0%
7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -229.0B 8.7B
   

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1338/1.1371 1.11419/1.1570 1.1621/59
Spot: 1.1327 Support: 1.1216/1.1301 1.1177 1.0912
           
USD/JPY Mildly Higher Resistance: 111.90/112.56 113.17/38 114.03/55
Spot: 111.49 Support: 111.23/38 110.79/111.13 107.32/110.35
     
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.3298/1.3302 1.3350/81 1.3472
Spot: 1.3293 Support: 1.3160/1.3258 1.3070/98 1.2773/1.2969
   
AUD/USD Mildly Lower Resistance: 0.7098 0.7145/65 0.7199/0.7393
Spot: 0.7082 Support: 0.7003/77 0.6909 0.6827
     
USD/CAD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.3374 1.3424/67 1.3614/64
Spot: 1.3342 Support: 1.3287/1.3340 1.3127/1.3242 1.3048/69
     
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6873/0.6969 0.7060 0.7253/61
Spot: 0.6845 Support: 0.6720/0.6815 0.6676/0.6707 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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