Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for March 10th, 2019

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is fairly busy and begins on Monday with an interview with Fed Chair Jerome Powell on U.S. television show 60 minutes and a speech by MPC member Jonathan Haskel, as well as U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.

Tuesday’s highlights feature UK GDP, Manufacturing Production, U.S. CPI and Core CPI, a speech by Fed Chair Powell and a tentative vote on Brexit in the UK Parliament. Wednesday’s releases then include the UK’s Annual Budget Release, U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders and Core PPI.

Thursday’s single key event will be a speech by BOC Governing Council Member Carolyn Wilkins. The week concludes with Friday’s release of Canadian Manufacturing Sales, the Preliminary University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index and the tentative release of the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Statement along with the associated BOJ Press Conference and a speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
SunMar 10 2:00am CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.0% 8.4% 8.4%
CNY New Loans 886B 950B 3230B
8:00am CAD Daylight Saving Time Shift
USD Daylight Saving Time Shift
MonMar 11 12:00am USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.4% 2.4% 2.3%
 7:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -18.8%
8:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -0.4%
EUR German Trade Balance 21.2B 19.4B
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -1.8%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.0% -1.2%
2:00pm GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks
3:00pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.6% -0.1%
TueMar 12 12:50am JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 4.8 5.5
1:00am USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
1:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -2.0% -6.1%
AUD NAB Business Confidence 4
7:30am EUR French Final Private Payrolls q/q 0.1% 0.1%
Tentative AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
12th-17th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 4.8%
10:30am GBP GDP m/m 0.2% -0.4%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.2% -0.7%
GBP Construction Output m/m 0.9% -2.8%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -12.2B -12.1B
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.5% 0.4%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.2% -0.5%
Tentative GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.2%
11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 102.0 101.2
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
1:30pm USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.2%
2:45pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
6:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.69|2.3
Tentative GBP Parliament Brexit Vote Reject
10:45pm NZD FPI m/m 1.0%
WedMar 13 12:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 4.3%
12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -1.5% -0.1%
JPY PPI y/y 0.7% 0.6%
5:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.3% -0.3%
10:00am EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 10.5% 10.2%
11:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 1.0% -0.9%
Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 0.72|1.2
Tentative GBP Annual Budget Release
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.1% 0.1%
USD PPI m/m 0.2% -0.1%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.5% 1.2%
3:00pm USD Construction Spending m/m 0.4% -0.6%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 7.1M
6:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.02|2.3
ThuMar 14 1:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.7%
1:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -24% -22%
3:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 6.0% 5.9%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 5.5% 5.7%
CNY Retail Sales y/y 8.1% 8.2%
CNY Unemployment Rate 4.9%
7:45am CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
8:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.5% 0.5%
8:30am CHF PPI m/m -0.1% -0.7%
8:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 0.0% 0.0%
Tentative GBP 30-y Bond Auction 1.91|2.4
1:30pm CAD NHPI m/m 0.0% 0.0%
USD Import Prices m/m 0.3% -0.5%
USD Unemployment Claims 225K 223K
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 622K 621K
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -149B
10:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 53.1
10:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -2.5%
11:50pm CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
FriMar 15 Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
8:00am EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% -0.7%
Tentative JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
11:00am EUR Final CPI y/y 1.5% 1.5%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.0% 1.0%
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -1.3%
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 10.1 8.8
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.5% 78.2%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.4% -0.6%
2:30pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.5%
3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 95.5 93.8
USD JOLTS Job Openings 7.22M 7.34M
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.6%
9:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases -48.3B

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1234/98 1.1301/1.1371 1.11419/1.1659
Spot: 1.1233 Support: 1.1216 1.1177 1.0912
           
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 111.23/38 112.08/112.56 113.17/38
Spot: 111.13 Support: 110.79/111.13 108.11/110.35 107.32/77
     
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.3070/98 1.3160/1.3217 1.3258/1.3350
Spot: 1.2973 Support: 1.2803/1.2969 1.2773 1.2671/1.2726
   
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7057/77 0.7145/65 0.7199/0.7393
Spot: 0.7037 Support: 0.700326 0.6909 0.6827
     
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3424/67 1.3614/64 1.3598
Spot: 1.3424 Support: 1.3297/1.3374 1.3127/1.3242 1.3048/69
     
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6810/15 0.6880/0.7060 0.7253/61
Spot: 0.6800 Support: 0.6720/0.6794 0.6676/0.6707 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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