Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for March 3rd, 2019

cropped-jellyhawk-logo1.jpg

Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is moderately busy and begins with the release of Australian Building Approvals and Company Operating Profits on Monday. Tuesday’s highlights include the RBA’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement, UK Services PMI, and speeches by BOE Governor Mark Carney and RBA Governor Philip Lowe.

Wednesday’s releases include U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Australian GDP, the BOC’s Overnight Rate and Rate Statement, the Canadian Trade Balance, and Ivey PMI. On Thursday, highlights include the ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate and Press Conference, as well as Australian Retail Sales and Trade Balance numbers.

Friday will see the release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, the Unemployment Rate and Building Permits, as well as Canadian Employment Change and the Canadian Unemployment Rate.

The week’s highlights conclude on Saturday with a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell about monetary policy normalization at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Economic Summit in California.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
SunMar 3 11:46pm AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -0.9% -1.8%
11:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 4.6% 4.5% 4.7%
MonMar 4 12:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.1% -0.1%
12:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 2.5% 1.5% -8.1%
AUD Company Operating Profits q/q 0.8% 3.1% 1.2%
 8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 5.0K 83.5K
9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -3.1 -3.7
GBP Construction PMI 50.5 50.6
10:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.4% -0.8%
3:00pm USD Construction Spending m/m 0.2% 0.8%
9:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 44.3
TueMar 5 12:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 2.1%
12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 0.1% 1.8%
12:30am AUD Current Account -9.3B -10.7B
1:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 53.5 53.6
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -6.7%
3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50%
3:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction -0.01|4.8
7:30am CHF CPI m/m 0.4% -0.3%
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 54.2 54.7
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 49.5 49.7
8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 49.8 49.8
8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 55.1 55.1
9:00am CHF Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks
EUR Final Services PMI 52.3 52.3
9:30am GBP Services PMI 50.0 50.1
GBP FPC Meeting Minutes
10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 1.3% -1.6%
12:30pm USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 0.9%
2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 56.2 56.2
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.4 56.7
USD New Home Sales 590K 657K
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 51.2 50.3
3:35pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance 6.2B -13.5B
10:10pm AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
WedMar 6 12:30am AUD GDP q/q 0.5% 0.3%
12:15pm GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 190K 213K
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -1.7B -2.1B
CAD Labor Productivity q/q 0.2% 0.3%
USD Trade Balance -57.8B -49.3B
3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 1.75% 1.75%
CAD Ivey PMI 55.1 54.7
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -8.6M
5:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
5:30pm GBP MPC Member Saunders Speaks
7:00pm USD Beige Book
9:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 43.1
ThuMar 7 12:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.4%
AUD Trade Balance 2.85B 3.68B
3:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.59|4.7
5:00am JPY Leading Indicators 96.2% 97.5%
6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.4% 2.4%
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 741B
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.1% -2.9%
9:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.7%
9:30am GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
10:00am EUR Final Employment Change q/q 0.3% 0.3%
EUR Revised GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 18.7%
12:45pm EUR Main Refinancing Rate 0.00% 0.00%
1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m -1.4% 6.0%
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Unemployment Claims 225K 225K
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -166B
5:15pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
5:30pm CAD Gov Council Member Patterson Speaks
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 17.1B 16.6B
9:45pm NZD Manufacturing Sales q/q 2.0%
11:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y -0.5% 0.1%
11:50pm JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.4% 2.4%
JPY Current Account 1.39T 1.56T
JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y -0.3% -0.3%
JPY Final GDP q/q 0.4% 0.3%
FriMar 8 Tentative JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 122B 271B
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 27.2B 39.2B
5:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 46.2 45.6
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 0.5% -1.6%
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.8%
EUR French Trade Balance -4.9B -4.7B
9:30am GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.2%
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 204K 208K
1:30pm CAD Employment Change -2.5K 66.8K
CAD Unemployment Rate 5.8% 5.8%
CAD Capacity Utilization Rate 82.1% 82.6%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.1%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 185K 304K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.9% 4.0%
USD Building Permits 1.29M 1.33M
USD Housing Starts 1.18M 1.08M
SatMar 9 1:30am CNY CPI y/y 1.5% 1.7%
CNY PPI y/y 0.2% 0.1%
3:00am USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1371 1.1419/1.1514 1.1549/1.1659
Spot: 1.1365 Support: 1.1301/1.1359 1.1249/98 1.1216
           
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 112.08/112.56 113.17/38 114.21/55
Spot: 111.98 Support: 110.95/111.38 108.11/110.35 107.32/77
     
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.3258/98 1.3350 1.3446/72
Spot: 1.3238 Support: 1.3160/1.3217 1.3070/80 1.2839/1.2969
   
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7145/65 0.7199/0.7265 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.7095 Support: 0.7057/77 0.7016/26 0.6735
     
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3297/1.3374 1.3424/55 1.3614/64
Spot: 1.3285 Support: 1.3127/1.3242 1.3048/69 1.2970/76
     
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6880/0.6942 0.6969/0.7060 0.7253/61
Spot: 0.6813 Support: 0.6720/0.6794 0.6676/0.6707 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

Jay Hawk Books Header for FB.png

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s