Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for February 24th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar ends the month with relatively little activity and begins on Monday with speeches from the BOE’s Governor Carney and FOMC Member Clarida. On Tuesday, highlights include the UK Inflation Report Hearings, U.S. CB Consumer Confidence and testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee.

Wednesday’s highlights include Australian Construction Work Done, Canadian CPI, Trimmed Mean CPI, and the second day of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. Thursday’s numbers include New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, Australian Private Capital Expenditure and U.S. Advance GDP.

The week concludes with Friday’s release of Canadian GDP and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, as well as a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Citizens Budget Commission Awards Dinner in New York City.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
SunFeb 24 9:45pm NZD Retail Sales q/q 1.7% 0.5% 0.3%
NZD Core Retail Sales q/q 2.0% 0.8% 0.7%
11:50pm JPY SPPI y/y 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
MonFeb 25  10:00am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
3:00pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.3%
4:00pm USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
TueFeb 26 5:00am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y 0.6% 0.4%
7:00am EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 10.8 10.8
26th-1st GBP Nationwide HPI m/m -0.1% 0.3%
9:30am GBP High Street Lending 39.2K 38.8K
10:00am GBP Inflation Report Hearings
1:30pm CAD Corporate Profits q/q 3.9%
USD Building Permits 1.29M 1.32M
USD Housing Starts 1.25M 1.26M
2:00pm USD HPI m/m 0.3% 0.4%
USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 4.9% 4.7%
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 124.3 120.2
USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 8 -2
9:45pm NZD Trade Balance -300M 264M
WedFeb 27 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 0.4%
12:30am AUD Construction Work Done q/q 0.6% -2.8%
9:00am CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations -44.0
EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 4.0% 4.1%
EUR Private Loans y/y 3.4% 3.3%
10:00am EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 2.60|1.4
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0.20|1.5
1:30pm CAD CPI m/m 0.2% -0.1%
CAD Common CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
CAD Median CPI y/y 1.8% 1.8%
CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
CAD Core CPI m/m -0.2%
USD Goods Trade Balance -75.3B -71.6B
USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.3%
3:00pm USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
USD Factory Orders m/m 1.5% -0.6%
USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.8% -2.2%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.7M
11:50pm JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m -2.4% -0.1%
JPY Retail Sales y/y 1.4% 1.3%
ThuFeb 28 12:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence -24.1
12:01am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -15 -14
12:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q 1.1% -0.5%
AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.3% 0.2%
1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.5 49.5
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.5 54.7
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -6.7%
5:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y 10.4% 2.1%
6:45am CHF GDP q/q 0.4% -0.2%
7:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.3% -1.3%
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.5% -0.8%
7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.5% -1.5%
EUR French Prelim CPI m/m 0.4% -0.4%
EUR French Prelim GDP q/q 0.3% 0.3%
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 96.2 95.0
EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 1.1% 1.0%
10:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
1:00pm USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
1:30pm CAD Current Account -14.0B -10.3B
CAD RMPI m/m 4.1% 3.8%
CAD IPPI m/m 0.3% -0.7%
USD Advance GDP q/q 2.6% 3.4%
USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.7% 1.8%
USD Unemployment Claims 221K 216K
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 58.1 56.7
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -177B
9:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 52.5
9:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 5.1%
NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q -1.0% -0.3%
11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y 1.0% 1.1%
JPY Unemployment Rate 2.4% 2.4%
11:50pm JPY Capital Spending q/y 4.5% 4.5%
FriMar 1 12:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 48.5 48.5
1:15am USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 48.7 48.3
5:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 41.6 41.9
5:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 6.9%
7:30am CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.3% -0.3%
7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -76.1B
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 51.9 52.4
8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 53.8 54.3
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 47.4 47.8
8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.4
8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 47.6 47.6
EUR German Unemployment Change -5K -2K
9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 49.2 49.2
EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.4% 10.3%
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.0 52.8
GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.7B 4.8B
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.3% 0.4%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 63K 64K
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.5% 1.4%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.1% 1.1%
EUR Unemployment Rate 7.9% 7.9%
1:30pm CAD GDP m/m 0.0% -0.1%
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.1%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.3% 0.4%
Dec Data USD Personal Income m/m 0.5% 0.2%
1:30pm USD Personal Income m/m 0.3%
2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 53.0
2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 53.7 53.7
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.0 56.6
USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 96.1 95.5
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 52.0 49.6
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.5%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 16.8M 16.7M

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1341/71 1.1432/1.1514 1.1549/1.1659
Spot: 1.1341 Support: 1.1301/1.1316 1.1249/98 1.1216
           
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 110.95/111.13 111.38/112.56 113.21/38
Spot: 110.64 Support: 108.11/110.26 107.32/77 105.35/55
     
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.3070/80 1.3160/1.3298 1.3446/72
Spot: 1.3070 Support: 1.2922/1.2969 1.2839/83 1.2662/1.2724
   
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7145/65 0.7207/0.7265 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.7145 Support: 0.7057/77 0.7016/26 0.6735
     
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3150/1.3203 1.3242/1.3455 1.3614/64
Spot: 1.3130 Support: 1.3127/28 1.3048/69 1.2970/76
     
NZD/USD Mildly Higher Resistance: 0.6880/0.6942 0.6969/0.7060 0.7253/61
Spot: 0.6866 Support: 0.6720/0.6778 0.6676/0.6707 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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