Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for February 10th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar will be moderately busy beginning with Monday’s releases that include UK GDP, Preliminary GDP and Manufacturing Production. Tuesday’s highlights will feature two speeches, one from BOE Governor Mark Carney and one from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Wednesday’s releases include the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate, Rate Statement and Monetary Policy Statement, plus a speech by RBNZ Governor Adrin Orr and New Zealand Inflation Expectations. Also on Wednesday, the UK will release CPI, PPI Input and RPI, while the United States will put out CPI and Core CPI.

Thursday’s highlights include Japanese Preliminary GDP, EZ Flash GDP, U.S. PPI, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales and Canadian Manufacturing Sales. The week concludes with Friday’s release of UK Retail Sales and the U.S. Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event      Forecast Previous  
MonFeb 11 All Day JPY Bank Holiday
 7:30am CHF CPI m/m -0.2% -0.3%
9:30am GBP GDP m/m 0.0% 0.2%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.2% -0.3%
GBP Prelim GDP q/q 0.3% 0.6%
GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q -1.3% -1.1%
GBP Construction Output m/m 0.2% 0.6%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -12.0B -12.0B
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.3% 0.3%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.4%
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.3%
4:15pm USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
11:50pm JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.4% 2.4%
TueFeb 12 12:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -2.0% -0.9%
AUD NAB Business Confidence 3
4:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.1% -0.3%
6:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -18.3%
12th-17th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 0.9%
8:00am EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
12th-15th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.2% 8.1%
12th-15th CNY New Loans 2970B 1080B
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 103.2 104.4
1:00pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 6.89M
12th-15th USD Mortgage Delinquencies 4.47%
5:45pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
11:30pm AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -4.7%
11:50pm JPY PPI y/y 1.0% 1.5%
WedFeb 13 12:30am USD FOMC Member George Speaks
1:00am NZD Official Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75%
NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
2:00am NZD Inflation Expectations q/q 2.0%
NZD RBNZ Press Conference
9:30am GBP CPI y/y 1.9% 2.1%
GBP PPI Input m/m 0.2% -1.0%
GBP RPI y/y 2.7% 2.7%
GBP Core CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
GBP HPI y/y 2.6% 2.8%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.0% -0.3%
10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.4% -1.7%
Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 0.85|1.1
1:30pm USD CPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.3M
7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -10.0B -204.9B
7:10pm NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
9:45pm NZD FPI m/m -0.2%
11:50pm JPY Prelim GDP q/q 0.4% -0.6%
JPY Prelim GDP Price Index y/y -0.4% -0.3%
ThuFeb 14 12:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.5%
12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -20% -19%
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 235B 395B
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 32.0B 57.1B
7:00am EUR German Prelim GDP q/q 0.1% -0.2%
EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% -1.2%
7:30am CHF PPI m/m -0.4% -0.6%
9:30am GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
10:00am EUR Flash GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
EUR Flash Employment Change q/q 0.2% 0.2%
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 1.27|2.2
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -1.4%
CAD NHPI m/m 0.0%
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 0.2%
USD PPI m/m 0.1% -0.2%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.1% 0.2%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% -0.1%
USD Unemployment Claims 234K
3:00pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.6%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -237B
8:45pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
9:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 55.1
9:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 2.1%
FriFeb 15 1:30am CNY CPI y/y 1.9%
CNY PPI y/y 0.9%
4:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -0.1% -0.1%
9:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.47B 3.84B
9:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.9%
10:00am EUR Trade Balance 16.4B 15.1B
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 9.45B
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 7.6 3.9
USD Import Prices m/m -0.2% -1.0%
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.8% 78.7%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.3%
3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 91.2
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.7%
9:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 37.6B

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1366 1.1432/1.1514 1.1549/1.1659
Spot: 1.1319 Support: 1.1301/1.1311 1.1267/98 1.1216
           
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 110.00/16 111.38/112.56 113.21/38
Spot: 109.96 Support: 108.11/109.95 107.32/77 105.35/55
     
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2958/1.3080 1.3160/1.3298 1.3446/72
Spot: 1.2927 Support: 1.2922/27 1.2839/83 1.2662/1.2724
   
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7145/65 0.7221/0.7265 0.7295/0.7393
Spot: 0.7096 Support: 0.7076/77 0.7016/26 0.6735
     
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3318/1.3455 1.3614 1.3664
Spot: 1.3291 Support: 1.3128/1.3263 1.3048/69 1.2970/76
     
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6778/0.6942 0.6969/0.7060 0.7253/61
Spot: 0.6761 Support: 0.6727/0.6753 0.6676/0.6707 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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