Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for February 3rd

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar will be active and begins on Monday with the release of Australian Business Approvals. Tuesday’s highlights include the RBA’s Cash Rate, Rate Statement, Australian Retail Sales and Trade Balance. Also out on Tuesday are UK Services PMI and U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Wednesday’s highlighted economic releases include Canadian Ivey PMI, as well as the New Zealand Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. In addition, Wednesday will see speeches by RBA Governor Philip Lowe and BOC Governing Council Member Timothy Lane. On Thursday, highlights include the BOE’s Official Bank Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Summary, Inflation Report and the MPC’s Official Bank Rate Votes. Also out on Thursday, are the EU Economic Forecasts and a speech by U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The week concludes with Friday’s release of Japanese Average Cash Earnings, the RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement, and the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. FOMC member James Bullard will also give a speech.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
SunFeb 3 1:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 53.6 53.3 53.9
9:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 5.1% -1.9%
11:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 4.7% 4.6% 4.8%
MonFeb 4 12:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.1% 0.4%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
12:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m -8.4% 2.1% -9.8%
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -1.7% -0.7%
 8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 60.3K -50.6K
9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -1.1 -1.5
GBP Construction PMI 52.6 52.8
10:00am EUR PPI m/m -0.7% -0.3%
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%
3:00pm USD Factory Orders m/m 0.3% -2.1%
Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey
9:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 52.1
TueFeb 5 12:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -0.2%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y -0.2% -0.7%
12:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 0.4%
AUD Trade Balance 2.25B 1.93B
3:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50%
3:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.02|4.0
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 53.1 54.0
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 50.0 50.5
8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 47.5 47.5
8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 53.1 53.1
9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 50.8 50.8
9:30am GBP Services PMI 51.1 51.2
10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m -1.5% 0.6%
2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 54.2 54.2
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.0 57.6
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 53.1 52.3
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
WedFeb 6 All Day CNY Bank Holiday
1:30am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 0.3% -1.0%
1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m -0.4% 2.6%
USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.7% 2.3%
USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.7% 0.9%
USD Trade Balance -54.0B -55.5B
1:35pm CAD Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 4.2%
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 60.2 59.7
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.9M
6:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.73|2.5
9:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 42.6
9:45pm NZD Employment Change q/q 0.3% 1.1%
NZD Unemployment Rate 4.1% 3.9%
NZD Labor Cost Index q/q 0.6% 0.5%
11:05pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
ThuFeb 7 12:00am USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
12:30am AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 3
3:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.72|4.0
5:00am JPY Leading Indicators 97.9% 99.1%
7:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.8% -1.9%
7:45am EUR French Trade Balance -4.1B -5.1B
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 729B
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m -0.5% 2.2%
9:00am EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.7%
10:00am EUR EU Economic Forecasts
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.68|1.7
12:00pm GBP BOE Inflation Report
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B 435B
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 220K 253K
2:30pm USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -173B
6:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.04|2.2
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 16.0B 22.1B
11:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y 0.8% -0.6%
11:50pm JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.4% 2.4%
JPY Current Account 1.52T 1.44T
FriFeb 8 12:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 1.8% 1.7%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
12:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
5:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 48.6 48.0
6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.4% 2.4%
7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 18.1B 19.0B
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.8% -1.3%
EUR French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q 0.1% 0.1%
9:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.4% -1.6%
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 206K 213K
1:30pm CAD Employment Change 9.3K
CAD Unemployment Rate 5.6%

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1456/1.1514 1.1549/1.1659 1.1721/1.1852
Spot: 1.1451 Support: 1.1432 1.1301/1.1366 1.1267/98
           
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 109.74/110.14 111.38/112.56 113.21/38
Spot: 109.62 Support: 108.11/109.37 107.32/77 105.35/55
     
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.3080 1.3160/1.3298 1.3446/72
Spot: 1.3076 Support: 1.3043/70 1.2922/1.3000 1.2839/83
   
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7221/0.7265 0.7302/93 0.7453/84
Spot: 0.7234 Support: 0.7145/65 0.7076/77 0.7016/26
     
USD/CAD Lower Resistance: 1.3128/84 1.3203/63 1.3318/1.3455
Spot: 1.3094 Support: 1.3048/69 1.2970/76 1.2885/1.2927
     
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6911/42 0.6969/0.7060 0.7253/61
Spot: 0.6898 Support: 0.6727/0.6880 0.6676/0.6707 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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