Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for January 27th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is moderately busy and begins on Monday with speeches by ECB President Mario Draghi and BOE Governor Mark Carney, as well as the release of the New Zealand Trade Balance. On Tuesday, highlights include U.S. CB Consumer Confidence and the Spanish Unemployment Rate.

Wednesday’s releases begin with Australian CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI, UK Net Lending to Individuals, U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and the closely-watched U.S. Federal Funds Rate Decision, FOMC Statement and Press Conference.

The week concludes with Friday’s release of U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (aka Payrolls), Average Hourly Earnings, the Unemployment Rate and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous
SunJan 27 All Day AUD Bank Holiday
11:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
JPY SPPI y/y 1.1% 1.2% 1.2%
MonJan 28  9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3.8% 3.7%
EUR Private Loans y/y 3.4% 3.3%
2:00pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m 1.4%
EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
2:30pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
9:45pm NZD Trade Balance 225M -861M
TueJan 29 12:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 3
7:00am CHF Trade Balance 4.55B 4.74B
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate 14.4% 14.6%
2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 5.0% 5.0%
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 125.0 128.1
11:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y 0.9% 1.4%
WedJan 30 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 0.3%
12:30am AUD CPI q/q 0.4% 0.4%
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.4% 0.4%
5:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 42.5 42.7
6:30am EUR French Flash GDP q/q 0.3% 0.3%
7:00am EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 10.3 10.4
EUR German Import Prices m/m -0.8% -1.0%
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m -0.7% 0.1%
7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m -0.3%
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 98.1 96.3
9:00am CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations -22.2
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.3B 4.4B
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.2% 0.0%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 63K 64K
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 2.70|1.5
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0.29|1.6
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 170K 271K
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 1.1% -0.7%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 8.0M
7:00pm USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate <2.50% <2.50%
7:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
11:50pm JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m -0.5% -1.0%
ThuJan 31 12:01am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -14 -14
12:30am AUD Import Prices q/q 0.3% 1.9%
AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.3% 0.3%
1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.3 49.4
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.9 53.8
5:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y 2.1% -0.6%
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m -0.4% 1.4%
GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.2% -0.7%
7:45am EUR French Prelim CPI m/m -0.2% 0.0%
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.6% 0.6%
EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 1.1% 1.2%
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -11K -14K
9:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.6% 10.5%
10:00am EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
EUR Unemployment Rate 7.9% 7.9%
Tentative EUR Italian Prelim GDP q/q -0.1% -0.1%
12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 35.3%
1:30pm CAD GDP m/m 0.3%
CAD RMPI m/m -11.7%
CAD IPPI m/m -0.8%
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.1%
USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.8% 0.8%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.3% 0.4%
USD Personal Income m/m 0.5% 0.2%
USD Unemployment Claims 210K 199K
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 61.0 65.4
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -163B
4:00pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
5:30pm CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
9:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 49.5
11:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 2.5% 2.5%
FriFeb 1 12:30am AUD PPI q/q 0.8%
JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 50.0 50.0
1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.7 49.7
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -6.7%
5:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 10.5%
6:45am CHF SECO Consumer Climate -5 -6
7:30am CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.4% -0.5%
7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -95.6B
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 50.5 51.1
8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 56.6 57.8
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 49.0 49.2
8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.2
8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 49.9 49.9
9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 50.5 50.5
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 53.5 54.2
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.4% 1.6%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 1.0%
1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.4%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 165K 312K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.9%
2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 53.6
2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 54.9 54.9
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.3 54.1
USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 90.7 90.7
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 54.9
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.7%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 17.2M 17.6M

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1432/1.1500 1.1549/1.1659 1.1721/1.1852
Spot: 1.1412 Support: 1.1301/1.1366 1.1267/98 1.1216
           
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 109.78/88 110.00/14 111.38/112.56
Spot: 109.37 Support: 108.11/109.37 107.32/77 105.35/55
     
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.3217/58 1.3293/98 1.3446/72
Spot: 1.3196 Support: 1.3175 1.3070/80 1.2922/1.3000
   
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7221/0.7265 0.7302/93 0.7453/84
Spot: 0.7194 Support: 0.7145/65 0.7076/77 0.7016/26
     
USD/CAD Lower Resistance: 1.3226/63 1.3318/1.3374 1.3401/55
Spot: 1.3213 Support: 1.3128/84 1.3048/56 1.2970/76
     
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6880/0.6910 0.6969/0.7060 0.7253/61
Spot: 0.6860 Support: 0.6727/0.6843 0.6676/0.6707 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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