Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for January 20th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is relatively busy and begins with Monday’s speech by UK Prime Minister Theresa May on Brexit, while the United States observes a bank holiday. Tuesday’s highlights include the UK’s Average Earnings Index, Public Sector Net Borrowing and the Unemployment Rate. Also out on Tuesday will be New Zealand CPI.

Wednesday’s releases begin with the tentative release of the BOJ’s Outlook Report, the BOJ Policy Rate, as well as the associated Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement. Also due out on Wednesday will be Canadian Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales. On Thursday, highlights include the ECB’s Main Financing Rate and the ECB Press conference, as well as Australian Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate.

The week concludes with Friday’s release of the German Ifo Business Climate index and the first day of the two-day World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
MonJan 21 12:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 0.4% -1.5%
12:30am AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -6.7% 3.6%
2:00am CNY GDP q/y 6.4% 6.4% 6.5%
CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 5.9% 6.0% 5.9%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 5.7% 5.3% 5.4%
CNY NBS Press Conference
CNY Retail Sales y/y 8.2% 8.1% 8.1%
CNY Unemployment Rate 4.9% 4.8%
7:00am EUR German PPI m/m -0.4% -0.1% 0.1%
11:00am EUR German Buba Monthly Report
All Day USD Bank Holiday
3:35pm GBP Prime Minister May Speaks
TueJan 22  5:00am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.3% 3.3%
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 1.1B 6.3B
GBP Unemployment Rate 4.1% 4.1%
GBP Claimant Count Change 20.1K 21.9K
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -18.8 -17.5
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -20.1 -21.0
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.8% -0.1%
CAD Wholesale Sales m/m -0.3% 1.0%
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.27M 5.32M
3:30pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m -0.5%
9:45pm NZD CPI q/q 0.0% 0.9%
11:30pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m -0.1%
11:50pm JPY Trade Balance -0.29T -0.49T
WedJan 23 Tentative JPY BOJ Outlook Report
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10%
4:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m -0.4% 1.9%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
Day 1 All WEF Annual Meetings
9:30am GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
11:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 5 8
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.0%
CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.3%
2:00pm USD HPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
3:00pm EUR Consumer Confidence -6 -6
USD Richmond Manufacturing Index -6 -8
ThuJan 24 12:30am AUD Employment Change 18.1K 37.0K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.1% 5.1%
JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.6
2:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 6.1%
8:15am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.0 49.7
EUR French Flash Services PMI 50.6 49.0
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.6 51.5
EUR German Flash Services PMI 52.2 51.8
9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.4
EUR Flash Services PMI 51.5 51.2
Day 2 All WEF Annual Meetings
12:45pm EUR Main Refinancing Rate 0.00% 0.00%
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Unemployment Claims 212K 213K
2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.8
USD Flash Services PMI 54.4
3:00pm USD CB Leading Index m/m -0.1% 0.2%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -81B
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.7M
9:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 4.0%
11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y 0.9% 0.9%
FriJan 25 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 100.7 101.0
Day 3 All WEF Annual Meetings
9:30am GBP High Street Lending 39.0K 39.4K
11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 1 -13
2:00pm EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -1.4 -0.9
SatJan 26 Day 4 All WEF Annual Meetings

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1432/1.1500 1.1549/1.1659 1.1721/1.1852
Spot: 1.1366 Support: 1.1301/1.1366 1.1267/98 1.1216
           
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 109.78/88 110.14 111.38/112.56
Spot: 109.65 Support: 108.11/109.37 107.32/77 105.35/55
     
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.2922/1.3000 1.3070/80 1.3175/1.3217
Spot: 1.2888 Support: 1.2809/66 1.2659/1.2738 1.2447/77
   
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7165/0.7265 0.7302/93 0.7453/84
Spot: 0.7155 Support: 0.7145/51 0.7077 0.7016/26
     
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3318/1.3359 1.3401/55 1.3567/1.3600
Spot: 1.3295 Support: 1.3226/63 1.3128/84 1.3048/56
     
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6746/0.6843 0.6880/0.6910 0.6969/0.7060
Spot: 0.6727 Support: 0.6727 0.6676/0.6702 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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