Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for January 6th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

The first full week of the New Year warms up considerably after last Thursday’s dramatic volatility seen in most of the major pairs. The week’s highlights begin on Monday with the release of U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing and Canadian Ivey PMI. On Tuesday, the Canadian and Australian Trade Balances will come out.

The pace picks up on Wednesday as the BOC puts out its Overnight Rate, Rate Statement and Press Conference, followed by the FOMC Meeting Minutes release, as well as a speech by BOE Governor Mark Carney.

Thursday’s highlights include the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The week concludes on Friday with the release of UK GDP and Manufacturing Production, Australian Retail Sales, and U.S. Core CPI and CPI.

We here at The FXperts extend our best wishes to you and your loved ones as we begin another New Year. Thanks for following us!

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
SunJan 6 9:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 49.5 51.3
11:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 4.8% 5.8% 6.1%
MonJan 7  7:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m -0.2% 0.3%
EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.1%
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 749B
9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -2.0 -0.3
10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.3%
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 58.1 57.2
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 59.6 60.7
TueJan 8 12:30am AUD Trade Balance 2.18B 2.32B
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -0.3%
3:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.07|3.8
5:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 42.8 42.9
Tentative CHF Unemployment Rate 2.4% 2.4%
7:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.3% -0.5%
7:45am EUR French Trade Balance -4.9B -4.1B
8:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y -0.7% 0.8%
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.5% -1.4%
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 1.49|2.0
11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 103.6 104.8
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -1.9B -1.2B
USD Trade Balance -54.0B -55.5B
3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 7.17M 7.08M
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 14.3B 25.4B
9:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 55.1
WedJan 9 12:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 1.3% 1.5%
NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -0.6%
12:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m -0.3% -1.5%
7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 17.6B 17.3B
8:15am CHF CPI m/m -0.2% -0.3%
9:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.5% 10.6%
10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 8.1% 8.1%
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0.34|1.6
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 210K 216K
2:00pm USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
3:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 2.00% 1.75%
3:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference
3:30pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.0M
4:30pm USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
6:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.92|2.4
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
ThuJan 10 12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y -0.3% -0.5%
1:30am CNY CPI y/y 2.1% 2.2%
CNY PPI y/y 1.6% 2.7%
3:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.79|3.8
5:00am JPY Leading Indicators 99.5% 99.6%
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 1.2%
9:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.1%
10th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.1% 8.0%
10th-14th CNY New Loans 825B 1250B
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.82|1.8
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m -0.2%
CAD NHPI m/m 0.0%
USD Unemployment Claims 226K 231K
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -20B
5:00pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
5:40pm USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
6:00pm USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
6:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.17|2.3
9:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 44.5
9:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 1.5%
10:30pm USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
11:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y 0.2% -0.3%
11:50pm JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.1% 2.1%
JPY Current Account 1.10T 1.21T
FriJan 11 12:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.3%
5:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 50.3 51.0
9:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.3% 0.1%
9:30am GBP GDP m/m 0.1% 0.1%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.4% -0.9%
GBP Construction Output m/m 0.2% -0.2%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -11.4B -11.9B
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.2% 0.3%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.3% -0.6%
1:30pm USD CPI m/m -0.1% 0.0%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance 0.0B -204.9B

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1432/85 1.1496/1.1659 1.1721/1.1852
Spot: 1.1424 Support: 1.1301/1.1418 1.1267/98 1.1216
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 108.11/95 109.20/37 109.78/112.56
Spot: 108.11 Support: 107.32 105.35/55 104.61/64
   
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2809/1.2985 1.3070/80 1.3175/1.3217
Spot: 1.2748 Support: 1.2726/38 1.2659/1.2696 1.2530/89
 
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7145/0.7265 0.7302/93 0.7453/84
Spot: 0.7136 Support: 0.7077 0.7016/26 0.6905/37
   
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3401/55 1.3567/1.3600 1.3660/64
Spot: 1.3359 Support: 1.3318/1.3359 1.3226/63 1.3128/84
   
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6753/0.6824 0.6880/0.6910 0.6969/0.7060
Spot: 0.6751 Support: 0.6746 0.6676/0.6702 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

 

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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