Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for December 16th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar shows considerable activity and begins with Monday’s release of UK Manufacturing PMI, Australian Building Approvals and Company Operating Profits, as well as U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, the RBA releases its Cash Rate and Rate Statement, in addition to the Australian Current Account. Also among Tuesday’s highlights will be UK Construction PMI and a speech by BOE Governor Mark Carney.

Wednesday then features the BOC’s Overnight Rate and Rate Statement, Australian GDP, UK Services PMI, U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. In addition, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Thursday will see the release of Australian Retail Sales and the Trade Balance, and Canadian Retail Sales. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will also speak and the OPEC Meetings will commence. The week concludes with Friday’s closely-watched release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. The release of the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate is also scheduled for Friday, along with a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
MonDec 17 12:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -1.5% -1.7%
 9:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 1.89B 1.27B
10:00am EUR Final CPI y/y 2.0% 2.0%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.0% 1.0%
EUR Trade Balance 14.2B 13.4B
11:00am EUR German Buba Monthly Report
GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 6 10
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 6.20B 7.70B
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.1 23.3
3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 61 60
3:30pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m -0.1%
9:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 30.8B
TueDec 18 12:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence -37.1
12:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -0.8%
6:45am CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 101.8 102.0
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%
USD Building Permits 1.27M 1.26M
USD Housing Starts 1.23M 1.23M
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 2.2%
8:00pm NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 103.5
9:45pm NZD Current Account -5.94B -1.62B
11:30pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.1%
11:50pm JPY Trade Balance -0.31T -0.30T
WedDec 19 7:00am EUR German PPI m/m -0.1% 0.3%
9:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.3% 2.4%
GBP PPI Input m/m -2.8% 0.8%
GBP RPI y/y 3.2% 3.3%
GBP Core CPI y/y 1.8% 1.9%
GBP HPI y/y 3.3% 3.5%
GBP PPI Output m/m -0.1% 0.3%
11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 19
1:30pm CAD CPI m/m -0.1% 0.3%
CAD Common CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
CAD Median CPI y/y 2.0% 2.0%
CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 2.1% 2.1%
CAD Core CPI m/m 0.4%
USD Current Account -125B -101B
2:00pm CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
CNY CB Leading Index m/m 1.2%
EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -0.9 0.4
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.20M 5.22M
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.2M
7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections
USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate <2.50% <2.25%
7:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
9:45pm NZD GDP q/q 0.6% 1.0%
NZD Trade Balance -880M -1295M
ThuDec 20 12:30am AUD Employment Change 20.0K 32.8K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.0% 5.0%
2:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 6.3%
Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10%
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
4:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m 2.0% -0.9%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
7:00am CHF Trade Balance 3.20B 3.75B
9:00am EUR Current Account 18.4B 17.0B
9:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.5%
12:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B 435B
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
1:30pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -23.0K
CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.2% -0.5%
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 15.6 12.9
USD Unemployment Claims 219K 206K
3:00pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.0% 0.1%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -77B
11:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y 1.0% 1.0%
FriDec 21 12:01am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence
7:00am EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 10.3 10.4
7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m -0.1% 0.8%
9:30am GBP Current Account -22.2B -20.3B
GBP Final GDP q/q 0.6% 0.6%
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 7.0B 8.0B
GBP Revised Business Investment q/q -1.2% -1.2%
12:00pm GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.1%
CAD GDP m/m 0.2% -0.1%
CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.2%
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.3% 0.2%
USD Final GDP q/q 3.5% 3.5%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.8% -4.3%
USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 1.7% 1.7%
3:00pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
EUR Consumer Confidence -4 -4
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.1%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.3% 0.6%
USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.6 97.5
USD Personal Income m/m 0.3% 0.5%
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.7%


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1336/66 1.1401/72 1.1500/1.1852
Spot: 1.1307 Support: 1.1301/05 1.1267/98 1.1216
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 113.66/114.95 115.50 116.19
Spot: 113.47 Support: 112.95/113.38 111.13/112.56 109.78/110.90
   
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2589/1.2662 1.2696/1.2726 1.2812/1.2958
Spot: 1.2578 Support: 1.2477 1.2347/66 1.2110
 
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7178/0.7265 0.7302/93 0.7453/0.7503
Spot: 0.7175 Support: 0.7145/65 0.7021 0.6905
   
USD/CAD Mildly Lower Resistance: 1.3388/1.3401 1.3444/55 1.3598
Spot: 1.3380 Support: 1.3263/1.3359 1.3159/1.3226 1.3048/1.3127
   
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6817/24 0.6885/0.6910 0.6969/0.7060
Spot: 0.6790 Support: 0.6778/81 0.6676/0.6762 0.6424/0.6630

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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