Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for November 4th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s active economic calendar features three major central bank rate decisions — including that of the U.S. Federal Reserve — and the closely-watched U.S. Mid-Term Elections. The week starts off with Monday’s release of UK Services PMI and the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI survey. In addition, Monday will see speeches by the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and BOC Governor Stephen Poloz.

Tuesday’s stand-out highlight will be the U.S. Mid-term Congressional Elections, the results of which could strongly impact financial markets. Other important numbers out on Tuesday will be the RBA’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement, and New Zealand’s Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. Wednesday will see the release of the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate and Statement, as well as the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference. Other Wednesday releases include New Zealand Inflation Expectations and Canadian Ivey PMI.

Thursday’s highlights include the FOMC’s Federal Funds Rate Decision and the associated FOMC Rate Statement. Also out on Thursday will be the EU Economic Forecasts. On Friday, key releases include the Australian RBA Monetary Policy Statement, UK GDP and Preliminary GDP, UK Manufacturing Production and U.S. PPI.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date GMT Time Currency Event      Actual Forecast Previous  
SunNov 4 8:00am CAD Daylight Saving Time Shift
USD Daylight Saving Time Shift
10:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 51.1 52.5
MonNov 5 12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
1:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.1% 0.3%
NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -2.4% -2.4%
1:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.2% -0.7%
2:00am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
2:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 50.8 52.9 53.1
 9:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 20.4K
10:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 9.9 11.4
GBP Services PMI 53.4 53.9
2:10pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
3:45pm USD Final Services PMI 54.7 54.7
4:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 59.3 61.6
Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey
TueNov 6 12:30am JPY Household Spending y/y 1.6% 2.8%
1:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 0.6% -0.2%
4:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50%
8:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m -0.4% 2.0%
9:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 51.9 52.5
9:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 52.1 53.3
9:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 55.6 55.6
9:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 53.6 53.6
10:00am EUR Final Services PMI 53.3 53.3
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 1.60|1.9
11:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.4% 0.3%
2:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m 0.3% 0.4%
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -0.3%
4:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 7.14M
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 59.2 57.8
All Day USD Congressional Elections
7:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 3.23|2.4
10:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 49.3
10:45pm NZD Employment Change q/q 0.5% 0.5%
NZD Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.5%
NZD Labor Cost Index q/q 0.5% 0.6%
WedNov 7 1:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 1.2% 0.8%
3:00am NZD Inflation Expectations q/q 2.0%
6:00am JPY Leading Indicators 103.9% 104.5%
8:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m -0.1% -0.3%
9:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 740B
9:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.9% -1.4%
10:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.7%
11:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.1% -0.2%
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0.55|1.1
3:00pm CHF Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks
4:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 50.9 50.4
7th-9th USD Mortgage Delinquencies 4.36%
4:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.2M
7:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.34|2.4
9:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75%
NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
USD Consumer Credit m/m 16.2B 20.1B
10:00pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference
ThuNov 8 12:50am JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.4% 2.3%
JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -8.9% 6.8%
JPY Current Account 1.36T 1.43T
1:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -2% -2%
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 213B
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 31.7B
6:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 48.9 48.6
7:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.5% 2.5%
8:00am EUR German Trade Balance 21.2B 18.3B
8:45am EUR French Trade Balance -6.1B -5.6B
10:00am EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
11:00am EUR EU Economic Forecasts
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.86|1.6
2:15pm CAD Housing Starts 195K 189K
2:30pm CAD NHPI m/m 0.1% 0.0%
USD Unemployment Claims 214K 214K
4:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 48B
6:30pm CHF Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks
8:00pm USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate <2.25% <2.25%
FriNov 9 12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.8% 2.8%
1:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
AUD Home Loans m/m -1.1% -2.1%
2:30am CNY CPI y/y 2.5%
CNY PPI y/y 3.6%
9th-18th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 2.9%
8:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.3% 0.3%
9th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.3%
9th-14th CNY New Loans 1380B
10:30am GBP GDP m/m 0.1% 0.0%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.1% -0.2%
GBP Prelim GDP q/q 0.6% 0.4%
GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q 0.0% -0.7%
GBP Construction Output m/m 0.2% -0.7%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -11.4B -11.2B
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.5% 0.5%
GBP Industrial Production m/m -0.1% 0.2%
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.7%
2:30pm USD PPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
3:00pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.3%
3:05pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
4:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.6
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.9%

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1432/56 1.1508/1.1852 1.1996
Spot: 1.1387 Support: 1.1301/66 1.1270/98 1.1110/20
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 113.32/114.95 115.50 118.61/66
Spot: 113.19 Support: 111.13/112.56 109.78/110.90 108.65
   
GBP/USD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.3011/87 1.3194 1.3258/98
Spot: 1.2988 Support: 1.2922/58 1.2845/97 1.2696/1.2800
 
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7203/38 0.7258 0.7304/62
Spot: 0.7190 Support: 0.7021/0.7160 0.6909 0.6827
   
USD/CAD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.3111/1.3132 1.3159/1.3260 1.3290
Spot: 1.3106 Support: 1.3048/1.3103 1.2858/1.2987 1.2729/1.2819
   
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6676/0.6727 0.6762 0.6838/58
Spot: 0.6639 Support: 0.6544/0.6620 0.6465/0.6523 0.6424

 

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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