Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for October 28th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is quite active and features two central bank rate decisions: the BOJ’s on Wednesday and the BOE’s on Thursday. The calendar begins with Monday’s releases that include UK Net Lending to Individuals and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index.

On Tuesday, highlights include Australian Building Approvals, EZ Preliminary Flash GDP, a speech by BOC Governor Poloz, and U.S. CB Consumer Confidence. Wednesday will see the BOJ release its Policy Rate Decision, Outlook Report and Press Conference. The release of Australian CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI are also scheduled for Wednesday, as well as Canadian GDP and a speech by the BOC’s Governor Poloz.

Thursday’s releases feature the BOE’s Official Bank Rate, Monetary Policy Summary, Inflation Report and the MPC’s Official Bank Rate Votes. Also scheduled for Thursday will be UK Manufacturing PMI, a speech by BOE Governor Carney and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Friday concludes this busy week with the release of the closely-watched U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. Also out on Friday will be New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, Australian Retail Sales, UK Construction PMI, and the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Ccy Event    Actual Forecast Previous  
SunOct 28 3:00am CHF Daylight Saving Time Shift
EUR Daylight Saving Time Shift
GBP Daylight Saving Time Shift
MonOct 29 12:50am JPY Retail Sales y/y 2.1% 2.1% 2.7%
 Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -2.9%
10:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.1B 4.0B
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.3% 0.2%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 65K 66K
12:00pm GBP CBI Realized Sales 27 23
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.0%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.3%
USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.3%
Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey
TueOct 30 12:30am JPY Unemployment Rate 2.4% 2.4%
1:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 3.9% -9.4%
3:10am AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
7:30am EUR French Flash GDP q/q 0.4% 0.2%
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.1% 0.4%
8:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m -0.4% 0.8%
9:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 100.8 102.2
EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 2.3% 2.3%
9:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -12K -23K
10:00am EUR Italian Prelim GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%
Tentative EUR EU Economic Forecasts
11:00am EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.4% 0.3%
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 2.90|1.4
2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 6.0% 5.9%
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 136.3 138.4
8:30pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
10:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 7.8%
WedOct 31 12:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m -0.2% 0.2%
1:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 0.2%
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -10 -9
1:30am AUD CPI q/q 0.5% 0.4%
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.4% 0.5%
AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.4% 0.5%
2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.6 50.8
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.9 54.9
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10%
Tentative JPY BOJ Outlook Report
6:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 43.5 43.4
JPY Housing Starts y/y -0.5% 1.6%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
8:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -0.1%
8:45am EUR French Prelim CPI m/m 0.1% -0.2%
9:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.6% 0.6%
10:00am CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations -30.8
EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 9.9% 9.7%
11:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.1% 2.1%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 0.9%
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.2% -0.5%
EUR Unemployment Rate 8.1% 8.1%
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 190K 230K
1:30pm CAD GDP m/m 0.2%
CAD RMPI m/m -4.6%
CAD IPPI m/m -0.5%
USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.7% 0.6%
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 60.3 60.4
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 6.3M
6:15pm CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
9:15pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
10:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 59.0
ThuNov 1 1:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.71B 1.60B
AUD Import Prices q/q 1.1% 3.2%
JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.1
2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.1 50.0
4:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.14|4.2
6:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 4.8%
7:45am CHF SECO Consumer Climate -8 -7
8:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
9:15am CHF CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
9:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 58.8 59.7
10:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.8
12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 70.9%
1:00pm GBP BOE Inflation Report
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B 435B
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
1:30pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.9% 2.9%
USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.2% -1.0%
USD Unemployment Claims 213K 215K
2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 54.8
2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 55.9 55.9
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 59.0 59.8
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.2% 0.1%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 67.5 66.9
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 58B
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 17.1M 17.4M
FriNov 2 12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 6.2% 5.9%
1:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence -38.3
1:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.3%
AUD PPI q/q 0.2% 0.3%
8:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.4% 0.0%
8:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -97.3B
9:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y -0.3% 0.4%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 51.0 51.4
9:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 49.7 50.0
9:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.2
9:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 52.3 52.3
10:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 52.1 52.1
10:30am GBP Construction PMI 52.0 52.1
1:30pm CAD Employment Change 63.3K
CAD Unemployment Rate 5.9%
CAD Trade Balance 0.5B
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.3%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 191K 134K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.7%
USD Trade Balance -53.4B -53.2B
3:00pm USD Factory Orders m/m 0.3% 2.3%

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1432/45 1.1508/1.1852 1.1996
Spot: 1.1391 Support: 1.1301/66 1.1270/98 1.1110/20
USD/JPY Mildly Lower Resistance: 112.04/114.95 115.50 118.61/66
Spot: 111.83 Support: 111.13/76 109.78/110.90 108.65
   
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2845/97 1.2922/58 1.3011/83
Spot: 1.2828 Support: 1.2775/1.2800 1.2723 1.2662
 
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7098/0.7160 0.7203/38 0.7304/62
Spot: 0.7085 Support: 0.7021/85 0.6909 0.6827
   
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3111/1.3132 1.3159/1.3260 1.3290
Spot: 1.3107 Support: 1.3051/1.3103 1.2858/1.2987 1.2729/1.2819
   
NZD/USD Mildly Higher Resistance: 0.6544/0.6620 0.6676/0.6727 0.6762
Spot: 0.6527 Support: 0.6465/0.6523 0.6424 0.6347

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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