Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for October 7th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is less active than usual due to U.S., Japanese and Canadian bank holidays on Monday. This week’s highlights begin on Tuesday with the release of the Australian NAB Business Confidence index and a speech by UK MPC Member Ben Broadbent.

Wednesday’s highlights include the release of UK GDP and Manufacturing Production, as well as U.S. PPI and Core PPI. In addition, the release of the U.S. Treasury Currency Report is tentatively scheduled for Wednesday. Thursday’s planned releases include U.S. CPI and Core CPI, the UK BOE Credit Conditions Survey, and the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.

Friday then features the release of the RBA’s Financial Stability Review and the U.S. Preliminary University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, as well as a speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic and the start of the IMF Meetings. FOMC Member Quarles will finish off the week’s highlights with a speech on Saturday.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date GMT Time Currency   Economic Event   Out Last Expected  
MonOct 8 All Day JPY Bank Holiday
1:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -0.8% -0.7%
2:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 53.1 51.4 51.5
 6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.5% 2.6%
7:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.4% -1.1%
9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 11.4 12.0
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
TueOct 9 12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 0.2%
12:50am JPY Current Account 1.52T 1.48T
1:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 4
6:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 47.3 48.7
7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 15.9B 15.8B
9:30am GBP FPC Statement
11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 108.9 108.8
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 203K 201K
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 54.6 55.7
3:35pm GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
7:00pm CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
WedOct 10 12:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -3.0%
12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -3.6% 11.0%
2:10am USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
7:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 5.1%
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.5% 0.7%
11th-15th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.5% 8.2%
11th-15th CNY New Loans 1340B 1280B
9:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.9% -1.8%
9:30am GBP GDP m/m 0.1% 0.3%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.1% -0.2%
GBP Construction Output m/m -0.4% 0.5%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -10.9B -10.0B
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.6% 0.6%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.1%
10:00am GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0.49|2.5
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m -0.1%
USD PPI m/m 0.2% -0.1%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% -0.1%
3:00pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.8% 0.8%
6:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.96|2.6
Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report
10:45pm NZD FPI m/m -0.5%
11:00pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
11:30pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
ThuOct 11 12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance 2% 2%
12:50am JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.1% 2.2%
JPY PPI y/y 2.9% 3.0%
1:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 4.0%
4:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.84|4.2
7:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m -0.2% -0.2%
9:30am GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
11:45am GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
1:30pm CAD NHPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
USD Unemployment Claims 207K
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 98B
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 8.0M
6:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.09|2.3
10:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 52.0
FriOct 12 12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.9% 2.9%
1:30am AUD RBA Financial Stability Review
AUD Home Loans m/m -0.9% 0.4%
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 180B
12th-18th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 2.3%
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 24.6B 27.9B
5:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.3% 0.1%
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.4% 0.4%
10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 0.4% -0.8%
1:30pm USD Import Prices m/m 0.3% -0.6%
3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 100.9 100.1
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.7%
Day 1 All IMF Meetings
5:30pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Tentative USD Federal Budget Balance -214.1B
SatOct 13 3:30am USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Day 2 All IMF Meetings

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast fora the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1527/1.1764 1.1791/1.1852 1.1996
Spot: 1.1520 Support: 1.1508/10 1.1444/45 1.1301
           
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 114.36/95 115.50 118.61/66
Spot: 113.85 Support: 112.04/113.75 111.13/76 108.65/110.90
           
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.3143/1.3217 1.3293/1.3315 1.3362
Spot: 1.3124 Support: 1.3027/83 1.2936/58 1.2775/1.2897
           
AUD/USD Mildly Lower Resistance: 0.7085/98 0.7145/60 0.7203/38
Spot: 0.7056 Support: 0.7042/52 0.6909 0.6827
           
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.2963/87 1.3051/1.3130 1.3174/1.3252
Spot: 1.2954 Support: 1.2858/1.2922 1.2803/19 1.2729/82
           
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6498/0.6544 0.6595/0.6620 0.6676/0.6727
Spot: 0.6432 Support: 0.6347 0.6098 0.5992

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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