Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for September 30th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is moderately busy and begins with Monday’s release of UK Manufacturing PMI and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers. Tuesday will see the release of the RBA’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement, as well as a speech by U.S. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

On Wednesday, the UK will release Services PMI, while the United States will put out the closely-watched ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, while another speech is scheduled by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Thursday’s highlights include the Australian Trade Balance and Canadian Ivey PMI. The week concludes with Friday’s releases that include the key U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, plus Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. In addition, Australian Retail Sales is due out on Friday, as well as the Canadian Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Trade Balance.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date GMT Time Currency   Economic Event Out   Last Expected  
SunSep 30 2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.8 51.2 51.3
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.9 54.1 54.2
2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.0 50.5 50.6
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
 11:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 56.7
MonOct 1 12:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 22 21
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 23 24
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
1:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 52.9 52.9
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.1%
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -0.4%
8:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.4% -0.3%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 52.7 53.0
8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 62.6 64.8
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 50.3 50.1
8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 52.5
8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 53.7 53.7
9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 53.3 53.3
EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.5% 10.4%
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52.8
GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.8B 4.0B
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.6% 0.9%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 65K 65K
10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 8.1% 8.2%
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
2:00pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 56.8
2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 55.6 55.6
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 60.1 61.3
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.5% 0.1%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 72.0 72.1
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 16.8M 16.7M
6:00pm CAD Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
Tentative NZD NZIER Business Confidence -20
TueOct 2 12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 7.1% 6.9%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
4:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.11|4.5
5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50%
6:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 43.0 43.3
7:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.2% -0.5%
7:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 6.7%
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 28.2K 47.0K
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 52.8 52.9
10:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4%
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
3:00pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -1.3%
5:45pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
11:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 52.2
WedOct 3 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 0.1%
1:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -1.1%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
2:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 1.2% -5.2%
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 52.9 52.7
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 52.8 52.6
8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 54.3 54.3
8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 56.5 56.5
9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 54.7 54.7
9:30am GBP Services PMI 54.0 54.3
10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.2%
Tentative USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 187K 163K
2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 52.9 52.9
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 58.1 58.5
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.9M
7:00pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
7:15pm USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
9:00pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
ThuOct 4 All Day CNY Bank Holiday
2:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.45B 1.55B
9:30am GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q -6.5B -6.7B
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.71|1.9
12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 13.7%
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 211K 214K
2:15pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 62.3 61.9
USD Factory Orders m/m 1.1% -0.8%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 46B
11:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 51.8
FriOct 5 12:30am JPY Household Spending y/y 0.2% 0.1%
1:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 1.3% 1.6%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -3.1%
2:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.0%
6:00am JPY Leading Indicators 104.3% 103.9%
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 0.7% -0.9%
EUR German PPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -82.8B
EUR French Trade Balance -4.5B -3.5B
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 731B
8:15am CHF CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
9:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.1%
1:30pm CAD Employment Change -51.6K
CAD Trade Balance -0.1B
CAD Unemployment Rate 6.0%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.4%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 185K 201K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.9%
USD Trade Balance -52.3B -50.1B
5:40pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 15.1B 16.6B
SatOct 6 5:00pm AUD Daylight Saving Time Shift

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast fora the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1618/1.1764 1.1791/1.1852 1.1996
Spot: 1.1603 Support: 1.1508/1.1585 1.1444/45 1.1301
           
USD/JPY Mildly Lower Resistance: 113.75 114.36/95 115.50
Spot: 113.68 Support: 112.04/113.43 111.13/76 108.65/110.90
           
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.3050/83 1.3143/1.3217 1.3293/1.3315
Spot: 1.3029 Support: 1.3027 1.2936/58 1.2775/1.2897
           
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7236/38 0.7304/82 0.7453/83
Spot: 0.7215 Support: 0.7203 0.7145/60 0.7052/98
           
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.2922/87 1.3051/1.3130 1.3174/1.3252
Spot: 1.2907 Support: 1.2858/88 1.2803/19 1.2729/50
           
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6676/0.6727 0.6762/69 0.6824/58
Spot: 0.6620 Support: 0.6595/0.6620 0.6530/44 0.6498/0.6501

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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