Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for September 23rd

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is again moderately busy and begins on Monday with a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi and the release of the German Ifo Business Climate index. Tuesday’s economic highlights include a speech by BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the New Zealand Trade Balance, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence index.

On Wednesday, releases begin with the New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence Index and U.S. Crude Oil Inventories. Also, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release the Fed Funds Rate, the FOMC Statement, its Economic Projections and will hold the FOMC Press Conference, while the RBNZ will release its Official Cash Rate, Monetary Policy Statement and hold its associated Press Conference.

Thursday will see the release of U.S. Final GDP, Core Durable Goods Orders and Durable Goods Orders, as well as speeches by ECB President Draghi, BOC Governor Poloz and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The week concludes on Friday with the release of the UK Current Account and Final Quarterly GDP, as well as Canadian GDP, and the EZ Core CPI Flash Estimate and CPI Flash Estimate.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Economic Event   Out   Last Expected    
SunSep 23 All Day All OPEC-JMMC Meetings
MonSep 24 All Day JPY Bank Holiday
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 103.7 103.2 103.9
11:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -1 5 7
1:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 1.5% 0.4% -0.9%
1:58pm EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate 1.2 -0.5 -0.3
2:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
TueSep 25  12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
JPY SPPI y/y 1.1% 1.1%
6:35am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
7:00am EUR German WPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
9:40am GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
2:00pm USD HPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 6.2% 6.3%
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 132.2 133.4
USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 22 24
11:45pm NZD Trade Balance -930M -143M
WedSep 26 2:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence -50.3
6:00am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y 0.6% 0.5%
9:00am CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations -14.3
9:30am GBP High Street Lending 39.7K 39.6K
11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 18 29
2:00pm CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
CNY CB Leading Index m/m 1.1%
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 630K 627K
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.1M
7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections
USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate <2.25% <2.00%
7:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
10:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75%
NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
11:00pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference
ThuSep 27 7:00am EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 10.6 10.5
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3.8% 4.0%
EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
EUR Private Loans y/y 3.1% 3.0%
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 3.25|1.4
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% 0.1%
USD Final GDP q/q 4.2% 4.2%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.9% -1.7%
USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 3.0% 3.0%
USD Goods Trade Balance -70.6B -72.0B
USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.6%
USD Unemployment Claims 208K 201K
2:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m -0.2% -0.7%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 86B
9:30pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
10:45pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
11:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m -10.3%
FriSep 28 12:01am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -8 -7
12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y 0.9% 0.9%
JPY Unemployment Rate 2.5% 2.5%
12:50am JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 1.5% -0.2%
JPY Retail Sales y/y 2.2% 1.5%
2:30am AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.4% 0.4%
2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.5 50.6
6:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y 0.4% -0.7%
28th-3rd GBP Nationwide HPI m/m -0.5%
7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.3% 0.1%
EUR French Prelim CPI m/m -0.1% 0.5%
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 100.1 100.3
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -9K -8K
9:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 2.2% 2.2%
9:30am GBP Current Account -19.4B -17.7B
GBP Final GDP q/q 0.4% 0.4%
GBP Revised Business Investment q/q 0.5% 0.5%
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.1% 2.0%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.1% 1.0%
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m -0.2% 0.4%
1:30pm CAD GDP m/m 0.1% 0.0%
CAD RMPI m/m 0.8% 0.7%
CAD IPPI m/m 0.6% -0.2%
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.3% 0.4%
USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.3%
2:20pm GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 62.3 63.6
3:00pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 100.5 100.8
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%
SatSep 29 3:00pm NZD Daylight Saving Time Shift

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

 

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1764 1.1791/1.1852 1.1996
Spot: 1.1758 Support: 1.1618/1.1751 1.1508/1.1585 1.1444/45
           
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 112.80/113.17 113.43/75 114.36/74
Spot: 112.74 Support: 112.04/20 111.13/76 108.65/110.90
           
GBP/USD Mildly Lower Resistance: 1.3143 1.3173/1.3213 1.3293/1.3315
Spot: 1.3124 Support: 1.3027/83 1.2936/58 1.2775/1.2897
           
AUD/USD Mildly Higher Resistance: 0.7304/18 0.7348/82 0.7453/83
Spot: 0.7256 Support: 0.7203/38 0.7145/60 0.7052/98
           
USD/CAD Lower Resistance: 1.2950/87 1.3051/1.3130 1.3174/1.3252
Spot: 1.2943 Support: 1.2922 1.2858/88 1.2803/19
           
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6676/0.6727 0.6762/69 0.6824/58
Spot: 0.6645 Support: 0.6595/0.6620 0.6530/44 0.6498/0.6501

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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