Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for September 9th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is moderately active and begins with UK GDP, Manufacturing Production and the UK Goods Trade Balance on Monday. Tuesday will see the release of the UK Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change and the UK Unemployment Rate. Also, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment index and the Australian NAB Business Confidence index are due out.

On Wednesday, FOMC Member Brainard will speak and key releases include U.S. PPI, Core PPI, the Fed’s Beige Book and Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday’s will be busy, and its highlights feature the UK BOE Official Bank Rate, Monetary Policy Summary and MPC Official Bank Rate Votes; the ECB Main Refinancing Rate and Press Conference; U.S. CPI and Core CPI; and the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

The week’s key economic events conclude on Friday with the release of U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales, and a speech by BOE Governor Mark Carney.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Economic Event     Last Expected  
SunSep 9  11:45pm NZD Manufacturing Sales q/q 0.6%
MonSep 10 12:50am JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.0% 2.0%
JPY Current Account 1.56T 1.76T
JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y 0.1% 0.1%
JPY Final GDP q/q 0.7% 0.5%
2:30am CNY CPI y/y 2.1% 2.1%
CNY PPI y/y 4.1% 4.6%
4:05am AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
6:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 47.2 46.6
9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 13.8 14.7
GBP GDP m/m 0.2% 0.1%
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.2% 0.4%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -11.7B -11.4B
GBP Construction Output m/m -0.4% 1.4%
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.5% 0.5%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.2% 0.4%
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.5%
Tentative USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 14.5B 10.2B
TueSep 11 12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.0% 3.0%
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 7
11th-18th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 2.3%
4:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.85|4.7
5:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.1% -0.5%
6:30am EUR French Final Private Payrolls q/q 0.2% 0.2%
7:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 13.1%
11th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.6% 8.5%
11th-14th CNY New Loans 1370B 1450B
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.5% 2.4%
GBP Claimant Count Change 3.6K 6.2K
GBP Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -13.4 -13.7
EUR Employment Change q/q 0.4% 0.4%
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -10.9 -11.1
11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 108.2 107.9
Tentative GBP 30-y Bond Auction 1.94|2.1
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 218K 206K
3:00pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.7% 0.7%
USD JOLTS Job Openings 6.68M 6.66M
WedSep 12 12:50am JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 8.0 -3.2
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -2.3%
9:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.4% 0.5%
10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.5% -0.7%
EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 10.8% 11.1%
Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 0.94|1.6
1:30pm CAD Capacity Utilization Rate 86.9% 86.1%
USD PPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.3M
5:45pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
6:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.96|2.5
7:00pm USD Beige Book
11:45pm NZD FPI m/m 0.7%
ThuSep 13 12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance 2% 4%
12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 5.8% -8.8%
JPY PPI y/y 3.1% 3.1%
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 4.0%
2:30am AUD Employment Change 18.4K -3.9K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.3% 5.3%
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
7:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 0.5% 0.5%
8:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.0% 0.1%
12:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 9-0-0
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.75% 0.75%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B 435B
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
12:45pm EUR Main Refinancing Rate 0.00% 0.00%
1:30pm CAD NHPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
USD Unemployment Claims 210K 203K
3:00pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 63B
6:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.09|2.3
6:15pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -183.0B -76.9B
11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 51.2
FriSep 14 3:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 5.7% 5.5%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 6.2% 6.0%
CNY Retail Sales y/y 8.8% 8.8%
CNY Unemployment Rate 5.1%
5:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -0.1% -0.1%
10:00am EUR Trade Balance 16.3B 16.7B
11:00am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.6%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.5%
USD Import Prices m/m -0.2% 0.0%
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.4% 78.1%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 0.1%
3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 96.9 96.2
USD Business Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.1%
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.0%

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1585/1.1659 1.1676/1.1764 1.1791/1.1852
Spot: 1.1552 Support: 1.1508/1.1543 1.1444/45 1.1285/1.1313
           
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 111.13/49 111.76/112.20 112.80/113.18
Spot: 111.06 Support: 109.20/110.90 108.65/95 108.11
           
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2936/58 1.3027/83 1.3173/1.3213
Spot: 1.2916 Support: 1.2775/1.2845 1.2723 1.2589/1.2662
           
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7145/60 0.7203/38 0.7311/0.7566
Spot: 0.7103 Support: 0.7098 0.7052 0.6827
           
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3174/1.3252 1.3290 1.3381/86
Spot: 1.3161 Support: 1.3051/1.3130 1.2922/1.2987 1.2858/88
           
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6544 0.6610/20 0.6676/0.6727
Spot: 0.6532 Support: 0.6530 0.6498 0.6429

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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