Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for September 2nd

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s economic calendar is moderately busy, beginning with Monday’s release of Australian Retail Sales, UK Manufacturing PMI, and a speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda.

Tuesday will see the RBA’s Cash Rate and Rate Statement come out, as well as a speech by RBA Governor Lowe. Also on Tuesday, the UK will release Construction PMI and the Inflation Report Hearings, ending with U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI.

On Wednesday, the BOC will release its Overnight Rate and Rate Statement, and the Canadian Trade Balance, UK Services PMI and Australian GDP are also due out. Thursday’s data includes U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Crude Oil Inventories, as well as the Australian Trade Balance.

The week concludes on Friday with the closely watched U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, in addition to Average Hourly Earnings and the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Economic Event   Out Expected Last  
SunSep 2 11:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 56.7 52.0
11:45pm NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q 0.6% 1.1% -2.0%
MonSep 3 12:50am JPY Capital Spending q/y 12.8% 6.6% 3.4%
1:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 52.5 52.5
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.1% 0.1%
2:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 0.3% 0.4%
AUD Company Operating Profits q/q 2.0% 1.4% 5.9%
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -0.6% 1.4%
2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.6 50.7 50.8
 6:40am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
7:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 7.6%
8:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y 1.2% 0.3%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 52.5 52.9
8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 61.0 61.9
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.5
8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 53.7 53.7
8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 56.1 56.1
9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 54.6 54.6
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 53.9 54.0
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
6:15pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
TueSep 4 12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 0.5%
12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 6.3% 7.0%
2:30am AUD Current Account -11.1B -10.5B
5:30am AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -27.1K
8:15am CHF CPI m/m 0.0% -0.2%
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 54.9 55.8
10:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.3% 0.4%
10:30am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
1:15pm GBP Inflation Report Hearings
2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 56.9
2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 54.5 54.5
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.6 58.1
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.5% -1.1%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 74.0 73.2
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 58.0
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -3.6%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 16.7M 16.8M
11:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 53.6
WedSep 5 2:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -3.2%
2:30am AUD GDP q/q 0.8% 1.0%
2:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 52.7 52.8
4:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.13|4.2
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 52.1 52.6
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 53.2 54.0
8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 55.7 55.7
8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 55.2 55.2
9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 54.4 54.4
9:30am GBP Services PMI 53.9 53.5
10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.3%
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -0.8B -0.6B
CAD Labor Productivity q/q 0.2% -0.3%
USD Trade Balance -47.6B -46.3B
3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 1.50% 1.50%
ThuSep 6 2:30am AUD Trade Balance 1.46B 1.87B
6:45am CHF GDP q/q 0.5% 0.6%
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 1.6% -4.0%
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 1.42|1.5
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.74|2.0
12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -4.2%
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 188K 219K
1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m -2.3%
USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 2.9% 2.9%
USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q -0.9% -0.9%
USD Unemployment Claims 214K 213K
2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 55.2 55.2
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.0 55.7
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD Factory Orders m/m -0.5% 0.7%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 70B
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.6M
5:30pm CHF Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks
7:30pm CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
11:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 52.0
FriSep 7 12:30am JPY Household Spending y/y -0.8% -1.2%
1:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 2.4% 3.3%
2:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -0.1% -1.1%
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 177B
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 28.1B
6:00am JPY Leading Indicators 103.5% 104.7%
6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.6% 2.6%
7:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.2% -0.9%
EUR German Trade Balance 19.1B 19.3B
7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -58.9B
EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.2% 0.6%
EUR French Trade Balance -5.7B -6.2B
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 750B
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.5% 1.4%
9:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.2%
9:30am GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 2.9%
10:00am EUR Revised GDP q/q 0.4% 0.4%
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
1:30pm CAD Employment Change 5.1K 54.1K
CAD Unemployment Rate 5.9% 5.8%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.3%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 191K 157K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.9% 3.9%
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 62.3 61.8

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

 

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

 

 

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1613/45 1.1676/1.1764 1.1791/1.1852
Spot: 1.1599 Support: 1.1508/1.1585 1.1444/45 1.1285/1.1313
USD/JPY Mildly Lower Resistance: 111.13/49 111.83/112.20 112.80/113.18
Spot: 110.91 Support: 109.20/110.90 108.65/95 108.11
   
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2936/58 1.3027/83 1.3173/1.3213
Spot: 1.2925 Support: 1.2775/1.2845 1.2723 1.2589/1.2662
 
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7203/38 0.7311/82 0.7412/0.7566
Spot: 0.7189 Support: 0.7145/60 0.7052 0.6827
   
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3065/1.3130 1.3174/1.3252 1.3290
Spot: 1.3061 Support: 1.3051 1.2922/1.2987 1.2858/88
   
NZD/USD Mildly Lower Resistance: 0.6610/20 0.6676/0.6726 0.6790/0.6840
Spot: 0.6605 Support: 0.6544 0.6498 0.6429

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.  You can also view and purchase Jay and Julie Hawk’s six financial books at Jay’s Amazon author page here: amazon.com/author/Jayhawk

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