Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for August 12th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week’s forex economic calendar begins on Tuesday with the Australian NAB Business Confidence index, followed by the UK Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change and the UK Unemployment Rate.

On Wednesday, releases potentially affecting the market include the Australian Wage Price Index, UK CPI, RPI, and PPI Input. Also due out are U.S. Retail Sales and Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday will see the release of the Australian Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate, as well as UK Retail Sales and U.S. Building Permits.

The week concludes on Friday with a speech by RBA Governor Philip Lowe, in addition to the release of Canadian CPI, Common CPI, Foreign Securities Purchases, Median and Trimmed CPI.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date
GMT Time
Currency
 
Economic Event
 
Out
Expected
Last
 
SunAug 12
6:45pm
NZD
FPI m/m
0.7%
0.5%
MonAug 13
 9:30pm
AUD
NAB Business Confidence
6
10:00pm
CNY
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
6.0%
6.0%
CNY
Industrial Production y/y
6.3%
6.0%
CNY
Retail Sales y/y
9.2%
9.0%
CNY
Unemployment Rate
4.8%
13th-18th
CNY
Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
1.1%
TueAug 14
12:30am
JPY
Revised Industrial Production m/m
-2.1%
-2.1%
2:00am
EUR
German Prelim GDP q/q
0.4%
0.3%
EUR
German Final CPI m/m
0.3%
0.3%
2:45am
EUR
French Final CPI m/m
-0.1%
-0.1%
3:15am
CHF
PPI m/m
0.3%
0.2%
14th-15th
CNY
M2 Money Supply y/y
8.2%
8.0%
14th-15th
CNY
New Loans
1210B
1840B
4:30am
GBP
Average Earnings Index 3m/y
2.5%
2.5%
GBP
Claimant Count Change
7.8K
GBP
Unemployment Rate
4.2%
4.2%
5:00am
EUR
Flash GDP q/q
0.3%
0.3%
EUR
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
-20.1
-24.7
EUR
Industrial Production m/m
-0.3%
1.3%
EUR
ZEW Economic Sentiment
-16.4
-18.7
6:00am
USD
NFIB Small Business Index
106.9
107.2
8:30am
USD
Import Prices m/m
0.1%
-0.4%
14th-17th
USD
Mortgage Delinquencies
4.63%
8:30pm
AUD
Westpac Consumer Sentiment
3.9%
9:30pm
AUD
Wage Price Index q/q
0.6%
0.5%
WedAug 15
All Day
EUR
French Bank Holiday
All Day
EUR
Italian Bank Holiday
4:30am
GBP
CPI y/y
2.5%
2.4%
GBP
PPI Input m/m
0.1%
0.2%
GBP
RPI y/y
3.4%
3.4%
GBP
Core CPI y/y
1.9%
1.9%
GBP
HPI y/y
2.8%
3.0%
GBP
PPI Output m/m
0.1%
0.1%
Tentative
EUR
German 30-y Bond Auction
1.02|1.7
8:30am
USD
Core Retail Sales m/m
0.4%
0.4%
USD
Retail Sales m/m
0.2%
0.5%
USD
Empire State Manufacturing Index
20.3
22.6
USD
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
2.5%
0.4%
USD
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
0.4%
2.9%
9:15am
USD
Capacity Utilization Rate
78.3%
78.0%
USD
Industrial Production m/m
0.3%
0.6%
10:00am
USD
Business Inventories m/m
0.2%
0.4%
USD
NAHB Housing Market Index
67
68
10:30am
USD
Crude Oil Inventories
-1.4M
4:00pm
USD
TIC Long-Term Purchases
32.3B
45.6B
7:50pm
JPY
Trade Balance
0.02T
0.07T
9:00pm
AUD
MI Inflation Expectations
3.9%
9:30pm
AUD
Employment Change
15.3K
50.9K
AUD
Unemployment Rate
5.4%
5.4%
ThuAug 16
2:00am
EUR
German WPI m/m
0.5%
0.5%
4:30am
GBP
Retail Sales m/m
0.2%
-0.5%
5:00am
EUR
Trade Balance
16.5B
16.9B
Tentative
EUR
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
8:30am
CAD
Manufacturing Sales m/m
1.4%
CAD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
-10.5K
USD
Building Permits
1.31M
1.29M
USD
Housing Starts
1.27M
1.17M
USD
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
22.3
25.7
USD
Unemployment Claims
215K
213K
9:30am
GBP
CB Leading Index m/m
0.0%
10:30am
USD
Natural Gas Storage
46B
6:45pm
NZD
PPI Input q/q
0.6%
NZD
PPI Output q/q
0.2%
7:30pm
AUD
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
FriAug 17
3:30am
AUD
RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
4:00am
EUR
Current Account
23.2B
22.4B
5:00am
EUR
Final CPI y/y
2.1%
2.1%
EUR
Final Core CPI y/y
1.1%
1.1%
8:30am
CAD
CPI m/m
0.1%
CAD
Common CPI y/y
1.9%
CAD
Foreign Securities Purchases
2.18B
CAD
Median CPI y/y
2.0%
CAD
Trimmed CPI y/y
2.0%
CAD
Core CPI m/m
0.1%
10:00am
USD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
98.1
97.9
USD
CB Leading Index m/m
0.5%
USD
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
2.9%

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1445 1.1508/75 1.1613/28
Spot: 1.1383 Support: 1.1313 1.1285/96 1.1110/20
           
USD/JPY Higher Resistance: 110.48/91 111.13/39 112.20
Spot: 110.35 Support: 109.20/110.28 108.65/95 108.11
           
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.2775/1.2812 1.2958 1.3027/50
Spot: 1.2759 Support: 1.2723 1.2589/1.2635 1.2366
           
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7311/73 0.7412/84 0.7502/66
Spot: 0.7276 Support: 0.7145/60 0.6909 0.6826
           
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3191/1.3252 1.3290 1.3381/88
Spot: 1.3156 Support: 1.3110/30 1.2922/1.3096 1.2858
           
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6676/0.6726 0.6790/0.6840 0.7060
Spot: 0.6576 Support: 0.6498 0.6347 0.6098

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com and buy Jay and Julie Hawk’s books at Amazon.com here: Buy Books Here.

 

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