Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Recap for July 20th

cropped-jellyhawk-logo1.jpgGraphic for MW Recaps

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

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www.thefxperts.com

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP

The U.S. Dollar ended the week as the third weakest currency, after the Aussie and Sterling. The Pound suffered from three disappointing releases, including CPI, Core CPI and Claimant Count Change, while the Greenback lost ground overall against the New Zealand Dollar, the Euro, the Canadian Dollar and the Yen. The selloff in the Dollar was in part due to U.S. President Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates, combined with him doubling down on U.S. tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, increasing them to $500 billion, which was subsequently matched by the Chinese imposing tariffs on U.S. products.

Notable selected quotes from financial and political officials and other key events made and/or reported on over the past week are listed below by the day on which the news reports about them were released:

  • On Monday, July 16th, British PM Theresa May was quoted as having said over the weekend that there may be “no Brexit at all” if her plan to forge a strong relationship with the EU is thwarted. She continued by saying, “Be in no doubt: under the government’s proposal our fingers would still be caught in this mangle and the EU would use it ruthlessly to punish us for leaving and handicap our future competitiveness.”
  • On Tuesday, July 17th, the RBA released the minutes of its latest meeting on July 3rd. The minutes noted that, “since progress towards a lower unemployment rate and an inflation rate closer to the midpoint of the target range was likely to be gradual, they also agreed there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy. Rather, the Board assessed that it would be appropriate to hold the cash rate steady and for the Bank to be a source of stability and confidence while this progress unfolds.”
  • On Wednesday, July 18th, in testimony before the U.S. Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell in prepared remarks stated that, “With a strong job market, inflation close to our objective, and the risks to the outlook roughly balanced, the FOMC believes that–for now–the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate. We are aware that, on the one hand, raising interest rates too slowly may lead to high inflation or financial market excesses. On the other hand, if we raise rates too rapidly, the economy could weaken and inflation could run persistently below our objective.”
  • July 19th saw U.S. President Trump break with tradition by criticizing the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy. Trump said, ““I’m not thrilled, I am not happy about it. . . . I don’t like all of this work that we’re putting into the economy and then I see rates going up.” Trump continued, “Now I’m just saying the same thing that I would have said as a private citizen. So somebody would say, ‘Oh, maybe you shouldn’t say that as president.’ I couldn’t care less what they say, because my views haven’t changed.”
  • On Friday, July 20th, German PM Angela Merkel when asked about her working relationship with U.S. President Trump said that, “One can say that the values, or our usual framework, are under strong pressure at the moment. However, the transatlantic working relationship, including with the U.S. president, is crucial for us and I will carry on cultivating it”.

ECONOMIC RELEASE RECAP

The following table contains results for significant economic data releases and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Economic Event   Actual Expected Last  
MonJul 16 12:01am GBP   Rightmove HPI m/m   -0.1%   0.4%  
  All Day JPY   Bank Holiday          
  3:00am CNY   GDP q/y   6.7% 6.7% 6.8%  
    CNY   Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y   6.0% 6.0% 6.1%  
    CNY   Industrial Production y/y   6.0% 6.5% 6.8%  
    CNY   NBS Press Conference          
    CNY   Retail Sales y/y   9.0% 8.8% 8.5%  
    CNY   Unemployment Rate   4.8%   4.8%  
  9:04am EUR   Italian Trade Balance   3.38B 3.25B 2.99B  
  10:00am EUR   Trade Balance   16.9B 17.6B 18.0B  
  1:30pm CAD   Foreign Securities Purchases   2.18B 7.03B 9.09B  
    USD   Core Retail Sales m/m   0.4% 0.4% 1.4%  
    USD   Retail Sales m/m   0.5% 0.4% 1.3%  
    USD   Empire State Manufacturing Index   22.6 20.3 25.0  
  3:00pm USD   Business Inventories m/m   0.4% 0.4% 0.3%  
  11:45pm NZD   CPI q/q   0.4% 0.5% 0.5%  
TueJul 17 2:30am AUD   Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes          
  9:00am GBP   BOE Gov Carney Speaks          
  9:30am GBP   Average Earnings Index 3m/y   2.5% 2.5% 2.6%  
    GBP   Claimant Count Change   7.8K 2.3K -3.0K  
    GBP   Unemployment Rate   4.2% 4.2% 4.2%  
  1:30pm CAD   Manufacturing Sales m/m   1.4%   -1.1%  
  2:15pm USD   Capacity Utilization Rate   78.0% 78.4% 77.7%  
    USD   Industrial Production m/m   0.6% 0.5% -0.5%  
  3:00pm USD   Fed Chair Powell Testifies          
    USD   NAHB Housing Market Index   68 69 68  
  3:25pm NZD   GDT Price Index   -1.7%   -5.0%  
  9:00pm USD   TIC Long-Term Purchases   45.6B 34.3B 94.0B  
WedJul 18 1:30am AUD   MI Leading Index m/m   0.0%   -0.2%  
  9:30am GBP   CPI y/y   2.4% 2.6% 2.4%  
    GBP   PPI Input m/m   0.2% 0.3% 3.3%  
    GBP   RPI y/y   3.4% 3.5% 3.3%  
    GBP   Core CPI y/y   1.9% 2.1% 2.1%  
    GBP   HPI y/y   3.0% 3.8% 3.5%  
    GBP   PPI Output m/m   0.1% 0.3% 0.5%  
  10:00am EUR   Final CPI y/y   2.0% 2.0% 2.0%  
    EUR   Final Core CPI y/y   0.9% 1.0% 1.0%  
  10:34am EUR   German 30-y Bond Auction   1.02|1.7   1.06|1.2  
  1:30pm USD   Building Permits   1.27M 1.33M 1.30M  
    USD   Housing Starts   1.17M 1.32M 1.34M  
  2:30pm GBP   CB Leading Index m/m   0.0%   -0.1%  
  3:00pm USD   Fed Chair Powell Testifies          
  3:30pm USD   Crude Oil Inventories   5.8M -3.4M -12.6M  
  7:00pm USD   Beige Book          
ThuJul 19 12:50am JPY   Trade Balance   0.07T 0.15T -0.30T  
  2:30am AUD   Employment Change   50.9K 16.7K 13.4K  
    AUD   Unemployment Rate   5.4% 5.4% 5.4%  
    AUD   NAB Quarterly Business Confidence   7   8  
  7:00am CHF   Trade Balance   2.59B 3.22B 2.81B  
  9:30am GBP   Retail Sales m/m   -0.5% 0.1% 1.4%  
  9:49am EUR   Spanish 10-y Bond Auction   1.31|1.5   1.58|1.9  
  1:30pm CAD   ADP Non-Farm Employment Change   -10.5K   27.8K  
    USD   Philly Fed Manufacturing Index   25.7 21.6 19.9  
    USD   Unemployment Claims   207K 220K 215K  
  2:00pm USD   FOMC Member Quarles Speaks          
  3:00pm USD   CB Leading Index m/m   0.5% 0.4% 0.0%  
  3:30pm USD   Natural Gas Storage   46B 58B 51B  
  11:45pm NZD   Visitor Arrivals m/m   -3.5%   2.4%  
FriJul 20 12:30am JPY   National Core CPI y/y   0.8% 0.8% 0.7%  
  4:00am NZD   Credit Card Spending y/y   5.7%   3.7%  
  5:30am JPY   All Industries Activity m/m   0.1% 0.0% 1.0%  
  7:00am EUR   German PPI m/m   0.3% 0.3% 0.5%  
  9:00am EUR   Current Account   22.4B 27.2B 29.6B  
  9:30am GBP   Public Sector Net Borrowing   4.5B 3.6B 3.9B  
  1:30pm CAD   CPI m/m   0.1% 0.1% 0.1%  
    CAD   Core Retail Sales m/m   1.4% 0.6% 0.2%  
    CAD   Common CPI y/y   1.9%   1.9%  
    CAD   Median CPI y/y   2.0%   2.0%  
    CAD   Retail Sales m/m   2.0% 1.0% -0.9%  
    CAD   Trimmed CPI y/y   2.0%   1.9%  
  1:32pm CAD   Core CPI m/m   0.1%   -0.1%  
SatJul 21 Day 1 All   G20 Meetings          

 

TECHNICAL RECAP

The table below contains our previous directional forecast and what spot level it was made at, as well as the previous close, open, high, low, close and percent change on the week that were subsequently observed for the past week for each of the major currency pairs.

 

 

 

Previous

Forecast

Open

Prev. Close

High

Day

Low

Day

Close

% Change

EUR/USD Higher 1.1689 1.1745 1.1575 1.1720
Spot: 1.1699 1.1685 Tuesday Thursday +0.3%
           
USD/JPY Mildly Higher 112.21 113.18 111.38 111.44
Spot: 112.43 112.33 Thursday Friday -1.0%
           
GBP/USD Higher 1.3227 1.3293 1.2957 1.3127
Spot: 1.3252 1.3235 Monday Thursday -0.8%
           
AUD/USD Higher 0.7416 0.7441 0.7318 0.7418
Spot: 0.7435 0.7423 Thursday Friday -0.1%
           
USD/CAD Lower 1.3152 1.3290 1.3110 1.3144
Spot: 1.3144 1.3153 Friday Monday -0.1%
           
NZD/USD Higher 0.6762 0.6956 0.6688 0.6806
Spot: 0.6778 0.6767 Monday Wednesday +0.6%

 

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals. Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

 

 

 

 

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