Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Recap for July 13th

cropped-jellyhawk-logo1.jpgGraphic for MW Recaps

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

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www.thefxperts.com

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP

The U.S. Dollar ended as the strongest major currency last week. The gain in the Greenback was in part due to risk appetite favoring the U.S. currency,  as well as the resignation of two UK ministers and U.S. President Trump’s criticism of the UK’s soft Brexit plan. The Dollar’s rise took place despite the escalation of the trade war with China, which saw the Trump administration announce tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese imports to the United States. In addition, the commodity currencies were pressured last week due to the fall in oil prices.

Notable selected quotes from financial and political officials and other key events made and/or reported on over the past week are listed below by the day on which the news reports about them were released:

  • On Monday, July 9th, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the central bank would maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy until inflation reaches the bank’s two percent target. Kuroda said that, “Japan’s economy is expected to continue expanding moderately”. Kuroda also indicated that the Japanese economy would see an acceleration of inflation towards the BOJ’s target as the output gap improved and inflation expectations increased.
  • On Tuesday, July 10th, in response to the resignation of UK Brexit Minister David Davis, President of the European Council Donald Tusk stated that the “idea of Brexit has not left together with David Davis”. Tusk added that, “The mess caused by Brexit is the biggest problem in the history of EU-UK relations and it is still very far from being resolved, with or without Mr. Davis.”
  • On Wednesday, July 11th, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer stated that, “As a result of China’s retaliation and failure to change its practices, the President has ordered USTR to begin the process of imposing tariffs of 10 percent on an additional $200 billion of Chinese imports. This is an appropriate response under the authority of Section 301 to obtain the elimination of China’s harmful industrial policies. USTR will proceed with a transparent and comprehensive public notice and comment process prior to the imposition of final tariffs, as we have for previous tariffs.”
  • July 12th saw the release of the ECB’s Account of the Monetary Policy Meeting of 13-14 of June, which stated that, “The impact of trade issues on global financial markets had been visible in the reaction of equity markets to the announcements by the US Administration to initiate a Section 232 investigation into auto imports and to move ahead with tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Canada, Mexico and the European Union, ending a two-month exemption period. Nevertheless, stock markets in some jurisdictions had increased since late April, in part reflecting incoming data that confirmed solid economic growth.”
  • On Friday, July 13th, BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said in a speech that the current excess in UK CPI at 2.4% was “entirely due to imported inflationary pressure.” He added that the key question for the central bank was now, “how much inflation is domestic economic pressures likely to generate over the next couple of years”, and that, “domestic inflation pressures, while strengthening a little are not yet established at levels consistent with inflation at target”.

ECONOMIC RELEASE RECAP

The following table contains results for significant economic data releases and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

SunJul 8 4:10am AUD
RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
MonJul 9 12:50am JPY
Bank Lending y/y
2.2% 2.0% 2.0%
JPY
Current Account
1.85T 1.18T 1.89T
1:30am JPY
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
6:02am JPY
Economy Watchers Sentiment
48.1 48.2 47.1
6:45am CHF
Unemployment Rate
2.6% 2.5% 2.7%
7:00am EUR
German Trade Balance
20.3B 20.3B 19.0B
8:50am GBP
MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
9:30am EUR
Sentix Investor Confidence
12.1 9.0 9.3
2:00pm EUR
ECB President Draghi Speaks
4:00pm EUR
ECB President Draghi Speaks
8:00pm USD
Consumer Credit m/m
24.6B 12.2B 10.3B
TueJul 10 12:01am GBP
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
1.1% 2.8%
12:50am JPY
M2 Money Stock y/y
3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
2:30am AUD
NAB Business Confidence
6 7
CNY
CPI y/y
1.9% 1.9% 1.8%
CNY
PPI y/y
4.7% 4.5% 4.1%
6:59am JPY
Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
11.4% 14.9%
7:45am EUR
French Industrial Production m/m
-0.2% 0.7% -0.5%
9:00am EUR
Italian Industrial Production m/m
0.7% 0.9% -1.3%
9:30am GBP
GDP m/m
0.3%
GBP
Manufacturing Production m/m
0.4% 1.0% -1.3%
GBP
Goods Trade Balance
-12.4B -11.9B -12.4B
GBP
Construction Output m/m
2.9% 0.4% 0.0%
GBP
Index of Services 3m/3m
0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
GBP
Industrial Production m/m
-0.4% 0.5% -1.0%
10:00am EUR
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
-24.7 -17.9 -16.1
EUR
ZEW Economic Sentiment
-18.7 -13.2 -12.6
10:10am USD
NFIB Small Business Index
107.2 105.6 107.8
1:15pm CAD
Housing Starts
248K 195K 194K
1:30pm CAD
Building Permits m/m
4.7% 0.1% -4.7%
3:00pm USD
JOLTS Job Openings
6.64M 6.88M 6.84M
WedJul 11 12:50am JPY
Core Machinery Orders m/m
-3.7% -5.2% 10.1%
JPY
PPI y/y
2.8% 2.8% 2.7%
1:30am AUD
Westpac Consumer Sentiment
3.9% 0.3%
2:30am AUD
Home Loans m/m
1.1% -1.9% -0.9%
5:30am JPY
Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
0.1% -0.4% 1.0%
8:00am EUR
ECB President Draghi Speaks
10:36am EUR
German 10-y Bond Auction
0.36|1.6 0.48|1.1
1:30pm USD
Core PPI m/m
0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
USD
PPI m/m
0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
3:00pm CAD
BOC Monetary Policy Report
CAD
BOC Rate Statement
CAD
Overnight Rate
1.50% 1.50% 1.25%
USD
Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
0.6% 0.5% 0.5%
3:30pm USD
Crude Oil Inventories
-12.6M -4.1M 1.2M
4:15pm CAD
BOC Press Conference
4:35pm GBP
BOE Gov Carney Speaks
6:01pm USD
10-y Bond Auction
2.86|2.6 2.96|2.6
9:30pm USD
FOMC Member Williams Speaks
11:45pm NZD
FPI m/m
0.5% 0.0%
ThuJul 12 12:01am GBP
RICS House Price Balance
2% -3% -2%
2:00am AUD
MI Inflation Expectations
3.9% 4.2%
7:00am EUR
German Final CPI m/m
0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
7:45am EUR
French Final CPI m/m
0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
8:11am CNY
Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
1.1% 1.3%
9:30am GBP
BOE Credit Conditions Survey
10:00am EUR
Industrial Production m/m
1.3% 1.2% -0.8%
All Day EUR
Eurogroup Meetings
12:30pm EUR
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
1:30pm CAD
NHPI m/m
0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
USD
CPI m/m
0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
USD
Core CPI m/m
0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
USD
Unemployment Claims
214K 226K 232K
3:30pm USD
Natural Gas Storage
51B 55B 78B
6:01pm USD
30-y Bond Auction
2.96|2.3 3.10|2.4
6:30pm USD
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
7:00pm USD
Federal Budget Balance
-74.9B -92.3B -146.8B
11:30pm NZD
Business NZ Manufacturing Index
52.8 54.4
FriJul 13 4:01am CNY
Trade Balance
262B 188B 157B
4:03am CNY
USD-Denominated Trade Balance
41.6B 27.9B 24.9B
5:30am JPY
Revised Industrial Production m/m
-0.2% -0.2% -0.2%
7:00am EUR
German WPI m/m
0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
8:15am CHF
PPI m/m
0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
9:30am CNY
M2 Money Supply y/y
8.0% 8.4% 8.3%
CNY
New Loans
1840B 1570B 1150B
All Day EUR
ECOFIN Meetings
12:30pm GBP
MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
1:30pm USD
Import Prices m/m
-0.4% 0.1% 0.9%
3:00pm USD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
97.1 98.1 98.2
USD
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
2.9% 3.0%
4:00pm USD
Fed Monetary Policy Report
4:30pm USD
FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

TECHNICAL RECAP

The table below contains our previous directional forecast and what spot level it was made at, as well as the previous close, open, high, low, close and percent change on the week that were subsequently observed for the past week for each of the major currency pairs.

 

 

Previous

Forecast

Open

Prev. Close

High

Day

Low

Day

Close

% Change

EUR/USD Higher 1.1744 1.1791 1.1613 1.1685
Spot: 1.1766 1.1743 Monday Friday -0.5%
USD/JPY Mildly Higher 110.39 112.80 110.28 112.33
Spot: 110.49 110.45 Friday Monday +1.7%
   
GBP/USD Mildly Lower 1.3316 1.3362 1.3095 1.3235
Spot: 1.3335 1.3285 Friday Monday -0.4%
 
AUD/USD Higher 0.7431 0.7484 0.7360 0.7423
Spot: 0.7477 0.7429 Monday Thursday -0.1%
 
USD/CAD Mildly Lower 1.3090 1.3218 1.3065 1.3153
Spot: 1.3082 1.3092 Thursday Wednesday +0.5%
 
NZD/USD Higher 0.6834 0.7053 0.6688 0.6767
Spot: 0.6843 0.6838 Monday Thursday -1.0%

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals. Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

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