Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for July 16th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

Economic releases affecting the forex market this week begin on Monday with U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales followed by New Zealand Quarterly CPI. Tuesday’s releases include the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; the UK Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate; and speeches by the BOE’s Governor Mark Carney and Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

On Wednesday, the UK will release CPI, RPI and PPI Input, while U.S. numbers due out include Crude Oil Inventories, Building Permits and Housing Starts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also expected to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, D.C.

Thursday’s numbers begin with the Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, followed by UK Retail Sales and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims. The week concludes on Friday with the release of Canadian CPI and Core Retail Sales, as well as UK Public Sector Net Borrowing. Friday also marks the first day of the G20 Meetings and the OPEC and the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meetings.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Economic Event   Actual Expected Last  
MonJul 16 12:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -0.1% 0.4%
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
3:00am CNY GDP q/y 6.7% 6.7% 6.8%
CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 6.0% 6.0% 6.1%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 6.0% 6.5% 6.8%
CNY NBS Press Conference
CNY Retail Sales y/y 9.0% 8.8% 8.5%
CNY Unemployment Rate 4.8% 4.8%
9:04am EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.38B 3.25B 2.99B
 10:00am EUR Trade Balance 17.6B 18.1B
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 7.03B 9.13B
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.9%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.8%
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.3 25.0
3:00pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.3%
11:45pm NZD CPI q/q 0.5% 0.5%
TueJul 17 2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
9:00am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.5% 2.5%
GBP Claimant Count Change 2.3K -7.7K
GBP Unemployment Rate 4.2% 4.2%
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.2%
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -1.3%
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.4% 77.9%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.5% -0.1%
3:00pm USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
USD NAHB Housing Market Index 69 68
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -5.0%
9:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 34.3B 93.9B
WedJul 18 1:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m -0.2%
9:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.6% 2.4%
GBP PPI Input m/m 0.4% 2.8%
GBP RPI y/y 3.5% 3.3%
GBP Core CPI y/y 2.1% 2.1%
GBP HPI y/y 3.8% 3.9%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.3% 0.4%
10:00am EUR Final CPI y/y 2.0% 2.0%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.0% 1.0%
Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 1.06|1.2
1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.33M 1.30M
USD Housing Starts 1.32M 1.35M
2:30pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.2%
3:00pm USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -12.6M
7:00pm USD Beige Book
ThuJul 19 12:50am JPY Trade Balance 0.15T -0.30T
2:30am AUD Employment Change 16.6K 12.0K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.4%
AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 7
7:00am CHF Trade Balance 3.22B 2.76B
9:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 1.3%
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 1.58|1.9
1:30pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 2.9K
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 20.6 19.9
USD Unemployment Claims 221K 214K
2:00pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
3:00pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.5% 0.2%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 51B
11:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 2.7%
FriJul 20 12:30am JPY National Core CPI y/y 0.8% 0.7%
5:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.0% 1.0%
7:00am EUR German PPI m/m 0.3% 0.5%
9:00am EUR Current Account 27.2B 28.4B
9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 3.7B 3.4B
Tentative All OPEC-JMMC Meetings
Day 1 All G20 Meetings
1:30pm CAD CPI m/m 0.1%
CAD Core Retail Sales m/m -0.1%
CAD Common CPI y/y 1.9%
CAD Median CPI y/y 1.9%
CAD Retail Sales m/m -1.2%
CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 1.9%
CAD Core CPI m/m -0.1%
SatJul 21 Day 2 All G20 Meetings

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1720 1.1791/1.1852 1.1938
Spot: 1.1699 Support: 1.1669/90 1.1613/18 1.1508/53
           
USD/JPY Mildly Higher Resistance: 112.80

 

113.39/75 114.37/74
Spot: 112.43 Support: 111.13/39 110. 79/91 109.20/110.48
           
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.3266 1.3302/15 1.3355/91
Spot: 1.3252 Support: 1.3205/21 1.3102/03 1.3050
           
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7443/84 0.7502/66 0.7605/0.7706
Spot: 0.7435 Support: 0.7412/24 0.7311/73 0.7145/60
           
USD/CAD Lower Resistance: 1.3206/52 1.3381/88 1.3457
Spot: 1.3144 Support: 1.3112/30 1.2970/1.3080 1.2937/43
           
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6790/0.6826 0.6884/88 0.6921/0.7095
Spot: 0.6778 Support: 0.6676/0.6726 0.6498 0.6347

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

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