Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for July 8th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

Economic releases affecting the forex market this week begin on Monday with speeches from ECB President Mario Draghi, BOE MPC member Broadbent and BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. On Tuesday, economic numbers include UK GDP, Manufacturing Production and the Goods Trade Balance, in addition to Australian NAB Business Confidence and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey.

Wednesday’s highlights begin with a speech by ECB President Draghi, followed by the BOC’s Overnight Rate Decision, Rate Statement, Press Conference and Monetary Policy Report. Also on Wednesday, BOE Governor Carney and FOMC members Bostic and Williams will give speeches. On Thursday, the United States will release CPI and Core CPI, as well as the ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. The week concludes with a speech by BOE MPC member Cunliffe and the U.S. Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment survey.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency Economic Event Actual Expected Last
SunJul 8 4:10am AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
MonJul 9 12:50am JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.20% 2.00% 2.00%
JPY Current Account 1.85T 1.18T 1.89T
1:30am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
 6:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 48.2 47.1
6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.50% 2.60%
7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 20.3B 19.4B
8:50am GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 9 9.3
2:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
4:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 12.2B 9.3B
TueJul 10 12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 2.80%
12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.20% 3.20%
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 6
CNY CPI y/y 1.90% 1.80%
CNY PPI y/y 4.50% 4.10%
7:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 14.90%
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.70% -0.50%
10th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.40% 8.30%
10th-14th CNY New Loans 1520B 1150B
9:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.90% -1.20%
9:30am GBP GDP m/m
GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 1.00% -1.40%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -11.9B -14.0B
GBP Construction Output m/m 0.40% 0.50%
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.40% 0.20%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.50% -0.80%
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -17.9 -16.1
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -13.2 -12.6
11:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 105.6 107.8
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.20%
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 195K 196K
1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m -4.60%
3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 6.88M 6.70M
WedJul 11 12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -5.00% 10.10%
JPY PPI y/y 2.80% 2.70%
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 0.30%
2:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -1.90% -1.40%
5:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.40% 1.00%
8:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0.48|1.1
1:30pm USD Core PPI m/m 0.20% 0.30%
USD PPI m/m 0.20% 0.50%
3:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 1.50% 1.25%
USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.50% 0.50%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.2M
4:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference
4:35pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
5:30pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
6:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.96|2.6
9:30pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
11:45pm NZD FPI m/m 0.00%
ThuJul 12 12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -2% -3%
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 4.20%
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.10% 0.10%
7:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 0.10% 0.10%
9:30am GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 1.20% -0.90%
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
12:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
1:30pm CAD NHPI m/m 0.20% 0.00%
USD CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
USD Unemployment Claims 227K 231K
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 78B
6:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.10|2.4
7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -146.8B
11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 54.5
FriJul 13 Tentative CNY Trade Balance 183B 157B
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 27.2B 24.9B
5:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -0.20% -0.20%
7:00am EUR German WPI m/m 0.40% 0.80%
8:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
12:00pm GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
1:30pm USD Import Prices m/m 0.10% 0.60%
3:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.3 98.2
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.00%
4:00pm USD Fed Monetary Policy Report

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

 

EUR/USD Higher Resistance: 1.1823/52 1.1938 1.1996
Spot: 1.1766 Support: 1.1669/1.1720 1.1618 1.1508/53
           
USD/JPY Mildly Higher Resistance: 110. 79/91 111.13/39 113.43
Spot: 110.49 Support: 109.92/110.48 109.20/53 108.65/95
           
GBP/USD Mildly Lower Resistance: 1.3355/91 1.3446/72 1.3617
Spot: 1.3335 Support: 1.3302/15 1.3266 1.3205/21
           
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7502/66 0.7605/76 0.7706
Spot: 0.7477 Support: 0.7443/76 0.7412/24 0.7311/73
           
USD/CAD Mildly Lower Resistance: 1.3112/30 1.3206/52 1.3381/88
Spot: 1.3082 Support: 1.2997/1.3080 1.2970 1.2937/43
           
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6884/88 0.6921 0.6954/0.7095
Spot: 0.6843 Support: 0.6818/26 0.6676/0.6790 0.6498

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

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