Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Recap for July 6th

cropped-jellyhawk-logo1.jpgGraphic for MW Recaps

 

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

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www.thefxperts.com

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP

The U.S. Dollar closed lower against all major currencies last week. The loss in the Greenback was in part due to the formal beginning of a trade war between the United States and China, although few signs of further escalation were noted.

Also, the U.S. Dollar was pressured by mixed employment numbers, with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change printing at +177K versus an expectation of +190K, while the key Non-Farm Payrolls number printed at +213K compared to the +195K expected. In addition, the U.S. Unemployment Rate increased to 4.0% from 3.8%, and Average Hourly Earnings rose +0.2% versus +0.3% anticipated.

Notable selected quotes from financial and political officials and other key events made and/or reported on over the past week are listed below by the day on which the news reports about them were released:

  • On Monday, July 2nd, in a weekend interview with Fox News, U.S. President Trump said that, “The EU is possibly as bad as China, just smaller, okay. It’s terrible what they do to us”. Trump continued by saying, “Take a look at the car situation, they send their Mercedes in, we can’t send our cars in. Look what they do to our farmers, they don’t want our farm products. In all fairness they have their farmers so they want to protect their farmers, but we don’t protect ours and they protect theirs.”
  • On Tuesday, July 3rd, in an interview with MSNBC, MPC member Michael Saunders said that, “If the economy plays out as I expect, it may be that rates need to go up a little faster than that,” referring to the possibility of more than one BOE rate hike this year. Saunders added that, “The U.K.’s a very globalized economy, large exporter, and also large foreign direct investment in the U.K. And so swings in global growth have a big effect on the U.K. If you were to get a retreat from freer global trade that also could affect the U.K. growth outlook”.
  • On Wednesday, July 4th, BOJ Policy Board member Yutaka Harada noted in a speech that, “April 2018 marked five full years since the Bank introduced bold monetary easing with its policy of QQE. For this reason, monetary policy over the past five years has been the subject of a large number of articles in newspapers and magazines assessing QQE from a variety of perspectives. Many of the assessments pointed out that the 2 percent price stability target had not been achieved and argued that the dangers associated with monetary easing had not been addressed.”
  • July 5th saw German Chancellor Angela Merkel stating that she would support lowering EU tariffs on U.S. automobile imports in return for concessions. Merkel said that, “When we want to negotiate tariffs, on cars for example, we need a common European position, and we are still working on it, I would be ready to support negotiations on reducing tariffs but we would not be able to do this only with the U.S.”
  • On Friday, July 6th, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stated that a trade war is “never a solution” and added that, “it benefits no one and it would undermine the multilateral free trade process”. Keqiang continued, saying that, “If one insists on waging a trade war, it would hurt others and themselves.” The Premier affirmed that China was committed to opening its market further, but that “If any party resorts to an increase of tariffs, China would take measures in response to protect China development interests and safeguard multilateral trade regime and rules.”

ECONOMIC RELEASE RECAP

The following table contains results for significant economic data releases and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency Economic Event Actual Expected Last
SunJul 1 11:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 57.4 57.5
MonJul 2 12:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 21 22 24
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 24 23 23
1:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 53 53.1 53.1
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.00% 0.00%
2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -1.70% 1.40%
2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51 51.1 51.1
7:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 6.60% 3.50%
8:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y -0.10% 2.60% 2.90%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 53.4 53.6 53.4
8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 61.6 61.1 62.4
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 53.3 52.6 52.7
8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 53.1 53.1
8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 55.9 55.9 55.9
9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 54.9 55 55
EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.70% 11.10% 11.00%
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 54.4 54.1 54.3
10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 8.40% 8.50% 8.40%
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 55.4 54.6 54.6
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 60.2 58.2 58.7
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.40% 0.50% 0.90%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 76.8 74.3 79.5
11:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence -20 -11
TueJul 3 12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 7.40% 8.30% 8.10%
2:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m -3.20% 0.10% -5.60%
4:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.04|4.4 0.05|4.4
5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -55.1B -54.3B
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -90.0K -101.0K -83.7K
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 53.1 52.6 52.5
GBP FPC Meeting Minutes
10:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.80% 0.40% 0.00%
EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.00% 0.10% -0.10%
10:36am GBP 10-y Bond Auction 1.43|2.3 1.61|2.2
2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 57.1 56.2
2:59pm USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 56.4 54.2 53.9
3:00pm USD Factory Orders m/m 0.40% 0.10% -0.40%
3:13pm NZD GDT Price Index -5.00% -1.20%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 17.5M 17.0M 16.9M
11:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 63 59
WedJul 4 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -0.50% -1.10%
2:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -1.00% 1.50%
2:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.30% 0.50%
AUD Trade Balance 0.83B 1.21B 0.47B
2:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 53.9 52.7 52.9
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 55.4 56.3 56.4
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 54.3 53.3 53.1
8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 55.9 56.4 56.4
8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 54.5 53.9 53.9
9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 55.2 55 55
9:30am GBP Services PMI 55.1 54 54
All Day USD Bank Holiday
ThuJul 5 4:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.70|5.0 0.71|4.2
6:58am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 2.60% 1.10% -1.60%
8:15am CHF CPI m/m 0.00% 0.10% 0.40%
9:10am EUR Retail PMI 51.8 51.7
9:30am GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q -6.7B -7.3B -7.1B
9:48am EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 1.58|1.9 1.41|2.2
9:59am EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.67|1.9 0.90|1.9
10:45am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
12:15pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 19.60% -4.80%
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 177K 190K 189K
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 231K 225K 228K
2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 56.5 56.5 56.5
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 59.1 58.3 58.6
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.2M -4.4M -9.9M
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
11:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 50.6 54
FriJul 6 12:30am JPY Household Spending y/y -3.90% -1.50% -1.30%
1:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 2.10% 0.90% 0.60%
6:00am JPY Leading Indicators 106.90% 106.50% 106.20%
6:56am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 2.60% 0.30% -1.30%
7:45am EUR French Trade Balance -6.0B -5.1B -5.2B
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 749B 741B
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.30% 0.30% 1.70%
9:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.80% 0.40% -0.60%
1:30pm CAD Employment Change 31.8K 22.3K -7.5K
CAD Trade Balance -2.8B -2.2B -1.9B
CAD Unemployment Rate 6.00% 5.80% 5.80%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 213K 195K 244K
USD Unemployment Rate 4.00% 3.80% 3.80%
USD Trade Balance -43.1B -43.6B -46.1B
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 63.1 63.2 62.5
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 78B 76B 66B

 

TECHNICAL RECAP

The table below contains our previous directional forecast and what spot level it was made at, as well as the previous close, open, high, low, close and percent change on the week that were subsequently observed for the past week for each of the major currency pairs.

 

 

 

Previous

Forecast

Open

Prev. Close

High

Day

Low

Day

Close

% Change

EUR/USD Lower 1.1673 1.1767 1.1591 1.1743
Spot: 1.1637 1.1682 Friday Monday +0.5%
USD/JPY Mildly Higher 110.59 111.13 110.28 110.45
Spot: 110.78 110.68 Tuesday Wednesday -0.2%
   
GBP/USD Lower 1.3175 1.3290 1.3095 1.3285
Spot: 1.3152 1.3206 Friday Monday +0.6%
 
AUD/USD Lower 0.7408 0.7444 0.7311 0.7429
Spot: 0.7375 0.7407 Friday Monday +0.3%
 
USD/CAD Higher 1.3141 1.3224 1.3077 1.3092
Spot: 1.3165 1.3133 Monday Friday -0.3%
 
NZD/USD Lower 0.6767 0.6845 0.6688 0.6838
Spot: 0.6754 0.6776 Friday Tuesday +0.9%

 

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals. Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

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