Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Recap for June 29th

cropped-jellyhawk-logo1.jpgGraphic for MW Recaps

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

 

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP

The U.S. Dollar closed mixed again last week as the Greenback continued to strengthen overall despite trade tensions with major partners. The U.S. Dollar closed lower against the Canadian Dollar and the Euro, while ending the week higher against the Pound Sterling, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars and the Japanese Yen.

Dollar gains were probably due to the Fed’s expected monetary policy changes involving two more interest hikes this year, followed by holding rates steady at the higher levels through the summer of 2019.

Notable selected quotes from financial and political officials and other key events made and/or reported on over the past week are listed below by the day on which the news reports about them were released:

  • On Monday, June 25th, Vice President of the EU Commission for Jobs, Growth, Investment and Competitiveness Jyrki Katainen stated that, “Both sides believe that we must resolutely oppose unilateralism and trade protectionism and prevent such behavior from causing volatility and recession in the global economy”.
  • On Tuesday, June 26th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin criticized the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg for claiming the U.S. was preparing to restrict Chinese investments in the United States by tweeting that, “On behalf of @realDonaldTrump, the stories on investment restrictions in Bloomberg & WSJ are false, fake news. The leaker either doesn’t exist or know the subject very well. Statement will be out not specific to China, but to all countries that are trying to steal our technology.”
  • On Wednesday, June 27th, after the release of the BOE’s Financial Stability Report, BOE Governor Mark Carney said at a press conference that, “The recent tightening in global financial conditions could be a precursor to a much more substantial snapback in world interest rates and more challenging bank, corporate and sovereign funding conditions, could sap some of the current strength of the global economy.”
  • On Thursday, June 21st, the ECB’s Economic Bulletin noted that, “The euro area economic expansion remains solid and broad-based across countries and sectors, despite recent weaker than expected data and indicators. Quarterly real GDP growth moderated to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2018, following growth of 0.7% in the previous quarters. This moderation reflects a pull-back from the very high levels of growth in 2017, compounded by an increase in uncertainty and some temporary and supply-side factors at both the domestic and the global level, as well as weaker impetus from external trade.”
  • On Friday, June 29th, the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer noted that the Swiss economic outlook had improved slightly, stating that, “The KOF Economic Barometer rose again in June for the first time in three months. It increased by 1.7 points to 101.7 points, stopping its downward tendency in spring. The current Barometer value is now slightly above the long-term average of 100.0. Thus, the KOF Economic Barometer indicates a slightly above-average economic development in Switzerland. The tailwind for the Swiss economy is no longer as strong as during winter.”

 

ECONOMIC RELEASE RECAP

The following table contains results for significant economic data releases and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date GMT Time Currency Economic Event Actual Expected Last
MonJun 25 12:50am JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 101.8 101.9 102.3
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 689K 665K 646K
TueJun 26 12:50am JPY SPPI y/y 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
6:00am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y 0.50% 0.60% 0.50%
9:30am GBP High Street Lending 39.2K 38.2K 38.3K
10:00am GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks
10:30am GBP MPC Member McCafferty Speaks
2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 6.60% 6.90% 6.70%
2:59pm USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 20 15 16
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 126.4 127.6 128.8
6:00pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
11:45pm NZD Trade Balance 294M 100M 193M
WedJun 27 2:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence -39 -27.2
6:58am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.50% 0.30% -0.20%
9:00am CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations 8 28
EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 4.00% 3.80% 3.80%
EUR Private Loans y/y 2.90% 3.00% 2.90%
10:30am GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
GBP FPC Statement
11:00am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
GBP CBI Realized Sales 32 10 11
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.30% 0.50% 1.90%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.60% -0.90% -1.60%
USD Goods Trade Balance -64.8B -68.9B -67.3B
USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.50% 0.20% 0.10%
2:00pm CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
CNY CB Leading Index m/m 2.10% 1.60%
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m -0.50% 0.40% -1.30%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -9.9M -2.4M -5.9M
4:00pm USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
8:00pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
10:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
ThuJun 28 12:50am JPY Retail Sales y/y 0.60% 1.30% 1.50%
7:00am EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 10.7 10.6 10.7
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.10% 0.20% 0.50%
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 2.30% 2.30% 2.10%
9:00am EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
10:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
10:17am EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 2.77|1.3 3.00|1.5
Day 1 EUR EU Economic Summit
1:30pm USD Final GDP q/q 2.00% 2.20% 2.20%
USD Unemployment Claims 227K 220K 218K
USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 2.20% 1.90% 1.90%
2:30pm GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 66B 73B 91B
5:00pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
9:30pm USD Bank Stress Test Results
11:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 7.10% -3.60%
FriJun 29 12:01am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -9 -7 -7
12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y 0.70% 0.60% 0.50%
JPY Unemployment Rate 2.20% 2.50% 2.50%
12:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m -0.20% -1.10% 0.50%
2:08am AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -4.40% -4.20%
2:30am AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.20% 0.40% 0.40%
6:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y 1.30% -5.90% 0.30%
6:03am JPY Consumer Confidence 43.7 43.9 43.8
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m -2.10% -0.50% 1.60%
EUR German Import Prices m/m 1.60% 1.00% 0.60%
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
7:48am EUR French Prelim CPI m/m 0.10% 0.10% 0.40%
7:52am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.90% 0.80% -1.80%
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 101.7 100.3 100
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -15K -8K -12K
9:30am GBP Current Account -17.7B -18.0B -19.5B
GBP Final GDP q/q 0.20% 0.10% 0.10%
GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.3B 5.2B 5.6B
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.20% 0.00% 0.30%
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.40% 0.30% 0.10%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 65K 62K 63K
GBP Revised Business Investment q/q -0.40% -0.20% -0.20%
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.00% 2.00% 1.90%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.00% 1.00% 1.10%
Day 2 EUR EU Economic Summit
1:30pm CAD GDP m/m 0.10% 0.00% 0.30%
CAD RMPI m/m 3.80% 1.20% 0.80%
CAD IPPI m/m 1.00% 0.90% 0.40%
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.20% 0.40% 0.50%
USD Personal Income m/m 0.40% 0.40% 0.20%
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 64.1 60.1 62.7
3:00pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.2 99.1 99.3
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.00% 2.90%
3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
SatJun 30 2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.7 51.9
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 55 54.7 54.9

 

TECHNICAL RECAP

The table below contains our previous directional forecast and what spot level it was made at, as well as the previous close, open, high, low, close and percent change on the week that were subsequently observed for the past week for each of the major currency pairs.

 

 

 

Previous

Forecast

Open

Prev. Close

High

Day

Low

Day

Close

% Change

EUR/USD Lower 1.1663 1.1720 1.1527 1.1682
Spot: 1.1653 1.1657 Monday Thursday +0.2%
USD/JPY Mildly Higher 109.81 110.94 109.37 110.68
Spot: 109.53 109.98 Friday Monday +0.6%
   
GBP/USD Mildly Higher 1.3256 1.3315 1.3292 1.3206
Spot: 1.3271 1.3263 Friday Tuesday -0.4%
 
AUD/USD Lower 0.7439 0.7442 0.7323 0.7407
Spot: 0.7424 0.7440 Monday Tuesday -0.4%
 
USD/CAD Higher 1.3260 1.3386 1.3130 1.3133
Spot: 1.3291 1.3260 Wednesday Friday -0.5%
 
NZD/USD Lower 0.6912 0.6921 0.6736 0.6775
Spot: 0.6902 0.6908 Monday Friday -1.9%

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals. Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

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