Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for July 1st

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

 

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week offers a number of important releases affecting the forex market that begin on Monday with U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and the New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence index. Tuesday will feature the RBA’s Cash Rate Decision, Rate Statement and Australian Building Approvals, as well as UK Construction PMI and the New Zealand GDT Price Index. Australian releases continue on Wednesday with Retail Sales and the Trade Balance, in addition to UK Services PMI, and U.S. markets will be closed that day in observance of the Fourth of July bank holiday.

Thursday begins with a speech by BOE Governor Carney, followed by the U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The week’s highlights conclude on Friday with the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings, with additional Friday releases including the UK Halifax HPI, Canadian Employment Change, the Unemployment Rate and the Canadian Trade Balance.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency Economic Event Actual Expected Last
SunJul 1 11:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 57.4 57.5
MonJul 2 12:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 21 22 24
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 24 23 23
1:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 53 53.1 53.1
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.00% 0.00%
2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -1.70% 1.40%
2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51 51.1 51.1
7:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 6.60% 3.50%
8:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y -0.10% 2.60% 2.90%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 53.4 53.6 53.4
8:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 61.6 61.1 62.4
8:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 53.3 52.6 52.7
8:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 53.1 53.1
8:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 55.9 55.9 55.9
9:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 54.9 55 55
EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.70% 11.10% 11.00%
 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 54.1 54.4
10:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.40% 0.00%
EUR Unemployment Rate 8.50% 8.50%
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
2:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 54.6 54.6
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 58.2 58.7
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.50% 1.80%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 74.3 79.5
Tentative NZD NZIER Business Confidence -11
TueJul 3 12:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 8.30% 8.10%
2:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 0.10% -5.00%
4:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.05|4.4
5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50%
7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -54.3B
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -101.0K -83.7K
9:30am GBP Construction PMI 52.6 52.5
GBP FPC Meeting Minutes
10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.10% 0.10%
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 1.61|2.2
2:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 56.2
3:00pm USD Factory Orders m/m 0.10% -0.80%
Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 54.2 53.9
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -1.20%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 17.0M 16.9M
11:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 59
WedJul 4 12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -1.10%
2:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 1.50%
2:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.30% 0.40%
AUD Trade Balance 1.21B 0.98B
2:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 52.7 52.9
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 56.3 56.4
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 53.3 53.1
8:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 56.4 56.4
8:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 53.9 53.9
9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 55 55
9:30am GBP Services PMI 53.9 54
All Day USD Bank Holiday
ThuJul 5 4:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.71|4.2
7:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 1.10% -2.50%
8:15am CHF CPI m/m 0.10% 0.40%
9:10am EUR Retail PMI 51.7
9:30am GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q -7.3B -6.7B
11:00am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 1.41|2.2
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.90|1.9
12:15pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
12:30pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -4.80%
1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 190K 178K
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 231K 227K
2:45pm USD Final Services PMI 56.5 56.5
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 58.3 58.6
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -9.9M
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
11:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 54
FriJul 6 12:30am JPY Household Spending y/y -1.50% -1.30%
1:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.90% 0.60%
6:00am JPY Leading Indicators 106.50% 106.20%
7:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.30% -1.00%
7:45am EUR French Trade Balance -5.1B -5.0B
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 741B
8:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.40% 1.50%
9:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.30% -0.70%
1:30pm CAD Employment Change -7.5K
CAD Trade Balance -1.9B
CAD Unemployment Rate 5.80%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.30% 0.30%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 200K 223K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.80% 3.80%
USD Trade Balance -44.0B -46.2B
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 63.2 62.5
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 66B

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

 

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1669/76 1.1717/20 1.1852
Spot: 1.1637 Support: 1.1618 1.1543/53 1.1508/27
           
USD/JPY Mildly Higher Resistance: 110. 84/91 111.39 113.43
Spot: 110.78 Support: 109.92/110.48 109.20/53 108.65/95
           
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.3205/21 1.3266 1.3302/55
Spot: 1.3152 Support: 1.3102 1.3027/50 1.2812
           
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7412 0.7443/76 0.7502/0.7676
Spot: 0.7375 Support: 0.7373 0.7311/45 0.7145/63
           
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3206/52 1.3381/88 1.3588/98
Spot: 1.3165 Support: 1.3124/30 1.3000/80 1.2970
           
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6780 0.6817/84 0.6954/0.7095
Spot: 0.6754 Support: 0.6736/38 0.6676/0.6708 0.6498

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

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