Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Recap for June 22nd

cropped-jellyhawk-logo1.jpgGraphic for MW Recaps

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

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www.thefxperts.com

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP

The U.S. Dollar was mixed last week as the looming trade war between the Trump administration and China, the EU and Canada intensified. The Greenback was up against the Canadian Dollar, the New Zealand Dollar and Sterling, and lower against the Euro, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc, and unchanged against the Australian Dollar.

The U.S. Trade Representative announced the first phase of Section 301 tariffs on $34B of Chinese imports, which was quickly countered by China, which announced tariffs on $34B of U.S. products such as automobiles, agricultural products and soybeans. Trump then ordered the Trade Representative to examine an additional 10% tariff on $200B worth of products from China by July 19th.

Notable selected quotes from financial and political officials and other key events made and/or reported on over the past week are listed below by the day on which the news reports about them were released:

  • On Monday, June 18th, in his opening remarks at the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal, ECB President Mario Draghi said that, “We will remain patient in determining the timing of the first rate rise and will take a gradual approach to adjusting policy thereafter. The path of very short-term interest rates that is implicit in the term structure of today’s money market interest rates broadly reflects these principles”.
  • On Tuesday, June 19th, at the European Central Bank Conference in Sintra, Portugal, BOJ Governor Kuroda stated that, “The deflationary mindset that has become entrenched amongst people is quite tenacious and it will take time to completely dispel this mindset”, Kuroda added that the BOJ’s two percent inflation target was “firmly maintained” and that, “further price rises were to be observed widely”.
  • On Wednesday, June 20th, in his opening remarks to the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal, U.S. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that, “With unemployment low and expected to decline further, inflation close to our objective, and the risks to the outlook roughly balanced, the case for continued gradual increases in the federal funds rate is strong”.
  • On Thursday, June 21st, the BOE left its benchmark Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% as was widely expected. While the rate was unchanged, the bank added one more dissenter voting to raise rates, making it a 6-3 vote. The new dissenter, joining Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders was the BOE’s chief economist, Andrew Haldane. After the rate decision, Governor Mark Carney unveiled the BOE’s new powers that will allow the central bank to raise a war chest of 750 billion. In a speech later that evening, Carney said, “Today marks a step change in our ability to provide the liquidity that the new finance may eventually require…. We now have a balance sheet fit for the purpose. One that reflects the Bank’s much wider range of responsibilities including banking supervision, macro-prudential policy and resolution.”
  • On Friday, June 22nd, after arriving in Vienna for the OPEC meetings, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih told reporters that, “We have invited Russia to join as an observer …We believe they are considering it, I can assure that the entire membership of OPEC would welcome Russia.”

ECONOMIC RELEASE RECAP

The following table contains results for significant economic data releases and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency   Economic Event   Observed Expected Last  
MonJun 18 12:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 0.4% 0.8%
12:50am JPY Trade Balance -0.30T 0.14T 0.45T
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
9:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 2.94B 3.21B 4.53B
11:00am EUR German Buba Monthly Report
3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 68 70 70
3:30pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.1% 0.3%
5:45pm CAD Gov Council Member Patterson Speaks
6:00pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
8:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
9:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
TueJun 19 2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD HPI q/q -0.7% -0.9% 1.0%
4:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.71|4.2 0.75|4.4
6:45am CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
9:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
EUR Current Account 28.4B 30.3B 32.8B
1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.30M 1.35M 1.36M
USD Housing Starts 1.35M 1.31M 1.29M
3:20pm NZD GDT Price Index -1.2% -1.3%
10:48pm NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 108.6 111.2
11:45pm NZD Current Account 0.18B 0.05B -2.75B
WedJun 20 12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
1:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m -0.2% 0.2%
7:00am EUR German PPI m/m 0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
10:35am EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 1.06|1.2 1.26|1.1
11:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 13 1 -3
1:30pm USD Current Account -124B -129B -116B
2:30pm AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.43M 5.52M 5.45M
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -5.9M -2.1M -4.1M
11:45pm NZD GDP q/q 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
ThuJun 21 2:30am AUD RBA Bulletin
5:30am CHF SNB Financial Stability Report
7:00am CHF Trade Balance 2.76B 1.89B 2.24B
8:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
CHF Libor Rate -0.75% -0.75% -0.75%
9:00am CHF SNB Press Conference
9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 3.4B 5.1B 5.3B
All Day All OPEC-JMMC Meetings
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
10:45am EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
12:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 3-0-6 2-0-7 2-0-7
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B 435B 435B
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9 0-0-9
1:30pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 2.9K 15.1K
CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.1% 0.4% 1.4%
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 19.9 28.9 34.4
USD Unemployment Claims 218K 220K 221K
2:00pm USD HPI m/m 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
3:00pm EUR Consumer Confidence -1 0 0
USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 91B 85B 96B
9:15pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
9:30pm USD Bank Stress Test Results
11:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 2.7% -1.0%
FriJun 22 12:30am JPY National Core CPI y/y 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
1:30am JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.1 52.6 52.8
4:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 3.7% 6.9%
5:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m 1.0% 0.9% 0.0%
8:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.1 54.0 54.4
EUR French Flash Services PMI 56.4 54.3 54.3
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.9 56.3 56.9
EUR German Flash Services PMI 53.9 52.2 52.1
9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.0 55.0 55.5
EUR Flash Services PMI 55.0 53.7 53.8
All Day All OPEC Meetings
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
12:00pm GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
1:30pm CAD CPI m/m 0.1% 0.4% 0.3%
CAD Core Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.5% -0.2%
CAD Common CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
CAD Median CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9%
CAD Retail Sales m/m -1.2% 0.0% 0.8
CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 1.9% 2.1%
1:43pm CAD Core CPI m/m -0.1% 0.1%
1:59pm EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate 0.6 0.0 0.2
2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.6 56.3 56.4
USD Flash Services PMI 56.5 56.4 56.8
   

 

TECHNICAL RECAP

The table below contains our previous directional forecast and what spot level it was made at, as well as the previous close, open, high, low, close and percent change on the week that were subsequently observed for the past week for each of the major currency pairs.

 

 

 

Previous

Forecast

Open

Prev. Close

High

Day

Low

Day

Close

% Change

EUR/USD Lower 1.1586 1.1675 1.1508 1.1657
Spot: 1.1587 1.1607 Friday Thursday +0.4%
           
USD/JPY Mildly Lower 110.69 110.76 109.55 109.98
Spot: 110.43 110.65 Thursday Tuesday -0.6%
           
GBP/USD Lower 1.3262 1.3315 1.3102 1.3263
Spot: 1.3267 1.3279 Friday Thursday -0.1%
           
AUD/USD Mildly Lower 0.7439 0.7443 0.7345 0.7440
Spot: 0.7442 0.7440 Friday Thursday +0.0%
           
USD/CAD Higher 1.3181 1.3381 1.2742 1.3260
Spot: 1.3187 1.3202 Friday Monday +0.4%
           
NZD/USD Lower 0.6935 0.6955 0.6826 0.6908
Spot: 0.6925 0.6940 Monday Thursday -0.5%

 

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals. Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

 

 

 

 

 

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