Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Recap for June 15th

cropped-jellyhawk-logo1.jpgGraphic for MW Recaps

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

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www.thefxperts.com

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP

 

The U.S. Dollar surged against all of the major currencies last week, largely on the Fed’s interest rate hike on Wednesday, which left the Fed Funds Rate at 2.00% up from 1.75%. Towards the end of the week, the Greenback added to its gains after Thursday’s ECB rate decision, which saw the Minimum Bid Rate remain unchanged at 0.00%.

Trade concerns continued dominating the news last week, as the Trump administration announced new tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods on Friday. China immediately retaliated, and on Saturday, raised duties on a long list of U.S. goods worth $34 billion, including soybeans, whiskey and electric cars.

Notable selected quotes from financial and political officials and other key events made and/or reported on over the past week are listed below by the day on which the news reports about them were released:

  • On Monday, June 11th, in an interview with Corriere della Sera newspaper, Italian Economy Minister Giovanni Tria said that, “The position of the government is clear and unanimous. There is no question of leaving the euro.” Tria continued by saying that, “The government is determined to prevent in any way the market conditions that would lead to an exit materializing. It’s not just that we do not want to leave, we will act in such a way that the conditions do not get anywhere near to a position where they might challenge our presence in the euro.”
  • On Tuesday, June 12th, after a successful meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore, U.S. President Trump tweeted, “Heading back home from Singapore after a truly amazing visit. Great progress was made on the denuclearization of North Korea. Hostages are back home, will be getting the remains of our great heroes back to their families, no missiles shot, no research happening, sites closing…Got along great with Kim Jong-un who wants to see wonderful things for his country. As I said earlier today: Anyone can make war, but only the most courageous can make peace!”
  • Wednesday, June 13th, saw the FOMC raise the Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points to 2.00%, as was widely anticipated. The FOMC Statement noted that, “In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.”
  • On Thursday, June 7th, the ECB left its benchmark Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.00%, as was widely expected. In his Introductory Statement to the Press Conference, ECB President Mario Draghi rather surprisingly voiced a very long term stable outlook for rates, stating that, “we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged and we expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure that the evolution of inflation remains aligned with our current expectations of a sustained adjustment path.
  • On Friday, June 15th, the BOJ left its short-term interest rate at minus -0.1% and pledged to keep 10-year government bond yields at on or around the zero percent level. After the rate decision, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told reporters at the press conference that, “It’s appropriate for Japan to continue current powerful monetary easing persistently.” Kuroda also cited a “deflationary mindset” that has affected Japan for decades but that “doesn’t exist in the U.S. or Europe.”

 

ECONOMIC RELEASE RECAP

The following table contains results for significant economic data releases and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

Date GMT Time Currency Economic Event Observed Expected Last
SunJun 10 All Day AUD Bank Holiday
10:45pm NZD Manufacturing Sales q/q 0.60% 2.60%
11:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 10.10% 2.50% -3.90%
JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.20% 3.30% 3.20%
MonJun 11 5:59am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 14.90% 22.00%
8:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -1.20% -0.70% 1.20%
8:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -1.40% 0.30% -0.10%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -14.0B -11.5B -12.0B
GBP Construction Output m/m 0.50% 2.40% -2.30%
GBP Industrial Production m/m -0.80% 0.10% 0.10%
11:08am GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.20% 0.10%
5:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.96|2.6 3.00|2.6
11:50pm JPY BSI Manufacturing Index -3.2 3.2 2.9
JPY PPI y/y 2.70% 2.10% 2.10%
TueJun 12 1:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 6 11
AUD Home Loans m/m -1.40% -1.70% -2.30%
4:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 1.00% 0.60% -0.30%
5:30am EUR French Final Private Payrolls q/q 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
8:00am EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 11.10% 11.10% 11.10%
8:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.50% 2.50% 2.60%
GBP Claimant Count Change -7.7K 11.3K 28.2K
GBP Unemployment Rate 4.20% 4.20% 4.20%
9:00am CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.30% 8.50% 8.30%
CNY New Loans 1150B 1200B 1180B
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -16.1 -14.6 -8.2
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -12.6 0.1 2.4
10:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 107.8 105.2 104.8
12:30pm USD CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.10% 0.10%
5:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.10|2.4 3.13|2.4
6:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -146.8B -119.0B 214.3B
10:45pm NZD FPI m/m 0.00% 0.10%
WedJun 13 12:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 0.30% -0.60%
3:20am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
7:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%
8:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.40% 2.40% 2.40%
GBP PPI Input m/m 2.80% 1.70% 0.60%
GBP Core CPI y/y 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
GBP HPI y/y 3.90% 4.40% 4.20%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
GBP RPI y/y 3.30% 3.40% 3.40%
9:00am EUR Employment Change q/q 0.40% 0.30% 0.30%
EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.90% -0.60% 0.60%
9:38am EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0.48|1.1 0.62|2.8
12:30pm USD PPI m/m 0.50% 0.30% 0.10%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.30% 0.20% 0.20%
2:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.1M -1.4M 2.1M
6:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections
USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate <2.00% <2.00% <1.75%
6:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
11:01pm GBP RICS House Price Balance -3% -5% -7%
ThuJun 14 1:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 4.20% 3.70%
1:30am AUD Employment Change 12.0K 18.8K 18.3K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.40% 5.50% 5.60%
2:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 6.10% 7.00% 7.00%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 6.80% 6.90% 7.00%
CNY Retail Sales y/y 8.50% 9.60% 9.40%
2:06am CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 1.30% 0.10%
4:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 0.50% 0.30% 0.30%
5:30am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
6:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
8:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 1.30% 0.50% 1.80%
11:45am EUR Main Refinancing Rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
12:30pm CAD NHPI m/m 0.00% 0.20% 0.00%
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.90% 0.50% 0.40%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.80% 0.40% 0.40%
USD Unemployment Claims 218K 223K 222K
USD Import Prices m/m 0.60% 0.50% 0.60%
2:00pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.30% 0.30% -0.10%
2:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 96B 87B 92B
10:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 54.5 59.1
FriJun 15 2:41am JPY Monetary Policy Statement
JPY BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
3:30am AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
6:00am EUR German WPI m/m 0.80% 0.30% 0.50%
6:28am JPY BOJ Press Conference
9:00am EUR Final CPI y/y 1.90% 1.90% 1.90%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.10% 1.10% 1.10%
EUR Trade Balance 18.1B 20.2B 19.8B
12:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 9.13B 5.49B 6.40B
CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -1.30% 0.60% 1.40%
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 25 19.1 20.1
1:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 77.90% 78.10% 78.10%
USD Industrial Production m/m -0.10% 0.20% 0.90%
1:30pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.20% -0.30%
2:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 99.3 98.5 98
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.90% 2.80%
8:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 93.9B 58.5B 61.8B

 

TECHNICAL RECAP

The table below contains our previous directional forecast and what spot level it was made at, as well as the previous close, open, high, low, close and percent change on the week that were subsequently observed for the past week for each of the major currency pairs.

 

 

 

Previous

Forecast

Open

Prev. Close

High

Day

Low

Day

Close

% Change

EUR/USD Lower 1.1656 1.1840 1.1652 1.1767
Spot: 1.1813 1.1658 Thursday Tuesday +0.9%
           
USD/JPY Mildly Lower 109.45 110.26 109.20 109.52
Spot: 109.99 109.51 Wednesday Friday +0.0%
           
GBP/USD Lower 1.3348 1.3472 1.3295 1.3408
Spot: 1.3435 1.3348 Thursday Monday +0.4%
           
AUD/USD Mildly Lower 0.7559 0.7676 0.7559 0.7596
Spot: 0.7610 0.7567 Wednesday Monday +0.4%
           
USD/CAD Higher 1.2952 1.3067 1.2858 1.2928
Spot: 1.2966 1.2953 Tuesday Wednesday -0.2%
           
NZD/USD Lower 0.6980 0.7069 0.6977 0.7028
Spot: 0.7039 0.6986 Wednesday Monday +0.6%

 

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

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