Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for June 18th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week looks moderately busy and begins with speeches by ECB President Draghi and FOMC Member Williams on Monday. On Tuesday, releases include Australian HPI and the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts, and another speech by ECB President Draghi. Wednesday’s data releases will have New Zealand Quarterly GDP, along with speeches by RBA Governor Lowe; BOJ Governor Kuroda; ECB President Draghi, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Thursday’s highlight consists of the BOE’s Official Bank Rate and Asset Purchase Facility, Official MPC Votes and the Monetary Policy Summary. The week concludes with the release of EZ, French and German Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Canadian CPI and Canadian Retail Sales. The OPEC nations will also convene in Vienna on Friday for their bi-annual meeting.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

Date GMT Time Currency Economic Event Expected Last
SunJun 17 11:01pm GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 0.40% 0.80%
11:50pm JPY Trade Balance -0.30T 0.45T
MonJun 18 All Day CNY Bank Holiday
 9:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.21B 4.53B
Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
2:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 70 70
2:30pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.20%
3:45pm CAD Gov Council Member Patterson Speaks
5:00pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
5:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
8:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
10:00pm NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 111.2
TueJun 19 1:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD HPI q/q -0.90% 1.00%
3:35am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.75|4.4
5:45am CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
8:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
EUR Current Account 30.3B 32.0B
12:30pm USD Building Permits 1.35M 1.36M
USD Housing Starts 1.31M 1.29M
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -1.30%
10:45pm NZD Current Account 0.05B -2.77B
11:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
WedJun 20 12:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.20%
6:00am EUR German PPI m/m 0.40% 0.50%
10:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 1 -3
Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 1.26|1.1
12:30pm USD Current Account -129B -128B
1:30pm AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
2:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.55M 5.46M
2:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.1M
10:45pm NZD GDP q/q 0.50% 0.60%
ThuJun 21 1:30am AUD RBA Bulletin
4:30am CHF SNB Financial Stability Report
6:00am CHF Trade Balance 1.89B 2.29B
7:30am CHF Libor Rate -0.75% -0.75%
CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
8:30am CHF SNB Press Conference
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 5.1B 6.2B
Tentative All OPEC-JMMC Meetings
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
9:45am EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
11:00am GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 2-0-7 2-0-7
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B 435B
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
12:30pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 30.2K
CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.50% 1.10%
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 28.3 34.4
USD Unemployment Claims 220K 218K
1:00pm USD HPI m/m 0.30% 0.10%
2:00pm EUR Consumer Confidence 0 0
USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.40% 0.40%
2:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 96B
8:15pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Tentative USD Bank Stress Test Results
10:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -1.30%
11:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y 0.70% 0.70%
FriJun 22 12:30am JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52.8
3:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 7.00%
4:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.90% 0.00%
7:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 54 54.4
EUR French Flash Services PMI 54.3 54.3
7:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.3 56.9
EUR German Flash Services PMI 52.2 52.1
8:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 55 55.5
EUR Flash Services PMI 53.7 53.8
All Day All OPEC Meetings
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
11:00am GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
12:30pm CAD CPI m/m 0.30%
CAD Core Retail Sales m/m -0.20%
CAD Common CPI y/y 1.90%
CAD Median CPI y/y 2.10%
CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.60%
CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 2.10%
CAD Core CPI m/m 0.10%
1:00pm EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate 0 0.2
1:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.3 56.4
USD Flash Services PMI 56.8 56.8

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

 

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1618 1.1669/76 1.1717
Spot: 1.1587 Support: 1.1543/53 1.1510 1.1445
           
USD/JPY Mildly Lower Resistance: 110.48 110. 84/85 111.59/65
Spot: 110.43 Support: 109.92/110.27 109.20/53 108.65/95
           
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.3302/55 1.3458/91 1.3613/17
Spot: 1.3267 Support: 1.3266 1.3205/21 1.3027/40
           
AUD/USD Mildly Lower Resistance: 0.7447/76 0.7502/90 0.7605/76
Spot: 0.7442 Support: 0.7412/47 0.7373 0.7329
           
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3206/23 1.3252 1.3387
Spot: 1.3187 Support: 1.3124 1.3000/80 1.2803/1.2950
           
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6954/87 0.7008/95 0.7140/53
Spot: 0.6925 Support: 0.6817/84 0.6780 0.6676

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

 

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