Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Recap for June 8th

cropped-jellyhawk-logo1.jpgGraphic for MW Recaps

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

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www.thefxperts.com

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP

 

The U.S. Dollar continued consolidating last week, selling off fractionally against most majors with the exception of the Japanese Yen that ended the week unchanged. The week’s market action was dominated by the G7 meeting in Ottawa, Canada. Tension between U.S. President Donald Trump and other world leaders hit the roof after the G7 leaders tried to convince Trump to put an end to trade tariffs on member nations. Also, Trump’s suggestion to include Russia in future G7 talks failed to find sufficient support.

Notable selected quotes from financial and political officials and other key events made and/or reported on over the past week are listed below by the day on which the news reports about them were released:

  • On Monday, June 4th, after meeting with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross on the 2nd and 3rd, Chinese Vice Premier Liu stated that, “To implement the consensus reached in Washington, the two sides have had good communication in various areas such as agriculture and energy, and have made positive and concrete progress while relevant details are yet to be confirmed by both sides”.
  • On Tuesday, June 5th, after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 1.50%, Governor Philip Lowe noted in the Statement on Monetary Policy that, “The Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years. An appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast.”
  • Wednesday, June 6th saw Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann comment on the ECB’s 2.3 trillion EUR bond buying program, saying that, “The ongoing economic recovery now raises the prospect of a monetary policy normalization.” Weidmann added that, “This is not about a full braking … but taking our foot somewhat off the gas.”
  • On Thursday, June 7th, in the Bank of Canada’s Release of the Financial System Review, Governor Stephen Poloz noted that, “The main vulnerabilities that we see today are the same as those in the last FSR in November. I will begin with a few words about two of these: elevated household debt and imbalances in housing markets. These vulnerabilities are expected to persist for some time, although we have seen continued signs of easing.”
  • On Friday, June 8th, the EU’s Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier tweeted about PM Theresa May’s “Backstop” plan for the Irish border after Brexit, noting that, “To avoid any confusion between the EU backstop & the UK customs paper: I reiterate that our backstop cannot apply to whole UK, freedoms are indivisible. This is not a rejection of the UK customs paper on which discussions continue.”

 

ECONOMIC RELEASE RECAP

The following table contains results for significant economic data releases and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

SunJun 3 All Day NZD Bank Holiday
11:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 8.10% 7.40% 7.80%
MonJun 4 1:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.00% 0.50%
1:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.30% 0.00%
AUD Company Operating Profits q/q 5.90% 3.10% 2.80%
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 1.50% -0.30%
7:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -83.7K -105.7K -86.7K
8:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 9.3 18.6 19.2
GBP Construction PMI 52.5 52 52.5
9:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.00% 0.20% 0.10%
2:00pm USD Factory Orders m/m -0.80% -0.40% 1.70%
5:00pm GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
10:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 59 55.2
11:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 2.80% -4.20%
11:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y -1.30% 0.80% -0.70%
TueJun 5 1:30am AUD Current Account -10.5B -9.9B -14.7B
1:45am CNY Caixin Services PMI 52.9 52.9 52.9
3:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.05|4.4 0.05|4.2
4:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
6:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -54.3B -33.1B
7:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 56.4 56.4 55.6
7:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 53.1 52.9 52.6
7:50am EUR French Final Services PMI 54.3 54.3 54.3
7:55am EUR German Final Services PMI 52.1 52.1 52.1
8:00am EUR Final Services PMI 53.8 53.9 53.9
8:30am GBP Services PMI 54 52.9 52.8
9:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.10% 0.50% 0.40%
10:00am GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
12:30pm CAD Labor Productivity q/q -0.30% 0.30% 0.20%
1:45pm USD Final Services PMI 56.8 55.7 55.7
2:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 58.6 57.9 56.8
USD JOLTS Job Openings 6.70M 6.49M 6.63M
2:26pm NZD GDT Price Index -1.30% 1.90%
5:30pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
11:00pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
WedJun 6 12:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.80% 1.40% 2.00%
1:00am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 1.50% 1.00%
1:15am AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -4.20% -2.00%
1:30am AUD GDP q/q 1.00% 0.90% 0.50%
7:15am CHF CPI m/m 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%
8:10am EUR Retail PMI 51.7 48.6
10:40am GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
12:30pm CAD Trade Balance -1.9B -3.4B -3.9B
CAD Building Permits m/m -4.60% -1.00% 1.30%
USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 0.40% 0.70% 0.70%
USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 2.90% 2.70% 2.70%
USD Trade Balance -46.2B -50.0B -47.2B
2:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 62.5 69.7 71.5
2:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.1M -2.0M -3.6M
4:00pm GBP MPC Member McCafferty Speaks
10:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 54 55.4
ThuJun 7 1:30am AUD Trade Balance 0.98B 0.98B 1.73B
5:00am JPY Leading Indicators 105.60% 105.60% 104.40%
5:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.60% 2.60% 2.70%
6:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m -2.50% 0.70% -1.10%
6:45am EUR French Trade Balance -5.0B -5.1B -5.0B
7:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 741B 757B
7:30am GBP Halifax HPI m/m 1.50% 1.10% -3.10%
8:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.70% 0.20% -0.20%
8:50am EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 1.41|2.2 1.37|2.3
9:00am EUR Revised GDP q/q 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
9:03am EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 0.90|1.9 0.81|1.9
12:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 222K 223K 223K
2:00pm USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 53.9 54.2 53.6
2:30pm CAD BOC Financial System Review
USD Natural Gas Storage 92B 87B 96B
3:00pm GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
3:15pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
7:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 9.3B 13.9B 12.3B
11:50pm JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.00% 2.20% 2.10%
JPY Current Account 1.89T 2.10T 1.77T
JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
JPY Final GDP q/q -0.20% -0.10% -0.20%
FriJun 8 3:15am CNY Trade Balance 157B 238B 183B
3:23am CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 24.9B 32.5B 28.8B
5:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 47.1 49.4 49
6:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m -1.00% 0.40% 1.70%
EUR German Trade Balance 19.4B 20.3B 22.0B
6:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.50% 0.40% -0.40%
8:30am GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 2.90% 2.90%
Day 1 All G7 Meetings
12:13pm CAD Housing Starts 196K 219K 215K
12:30pm CAD Employment Change -7.5K 19.1K -1.1K
CAD Unemployment Rate 5.80% 5.80% 5.80%
CAD Capacity Utilization Rate 86.10% 86.30% 85.60%
2:00pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
SatJun 9 1:30am CNY CPI y/y 1.80% 1.80% 1.80%
CNY PPI y/y 4.10% 3.90% 3.40%
Day 2 All G7 Meetings

 

TECHNICAL RECAP

The table below contains our previous directional forecast and what spot level it was made at, as well as the previous close, open, high, low, close and percent change on the week that were subsequently observed for the past week for each of the major currency pairs.

 

 

 

Previous

Forecast

Open

Prev. Close

High

Day

Low

Day

Close

% Change

EUR/USD Higher 1.1656 1.1840 1.1652 1.1767
Spot: 1.1689 1.1658 Thursday Tuesday +0.9%
USD/JPY Mildly Higher 109.45 110.26 109.20 109.52
Spot: 109.61 109.51 Wednesday Friday +0.0%
   
GBP/USD Higher 1.3348 1.3472 1.3295 1.3408
Spot: 1.3373 1.3348 Thursday Monday +0.4%
 
AUD/USD Higher 0.7559 0.7676 0.7559 0.7596
Spot: 0.7601 0.7567 Wednesday Monday +0.4%
 
USD/CAD Lower 1.2952 1.3067 1.2858 1.2928
Spot: 1.2934 1.2953 Tuesday Wednesday -0.2%
 
NZD/USD Higher 0.6980 0.7069 0.6977 0.7028
Spot: 0.7003 0.6986 Wednesday Monday +0.6%

 

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

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