Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for June 10th

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Graphic for MW Outlooks

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

ECONOMIC SUMMARY

This week will be busy and begins with the release of UK Manufacturing Production and the UK Goods Trade Balance on Monday, followed on Tuesday by U.S. CPI and Core CPI, Australian NAB Business Confidence, the UK Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change and the Unemployment Rate. Wednesday’s highlights include the U.S. Fed Funds Rate, FOMC Statement and Economic Projections, UK CPI, U.S. PPI and Core PPI, and a speech by RBA Governor Philip Lowe.

Thursday’s releases include the ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate and Press conference, Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, UK Retail Sales, and the New Zealand Business NZ Manufacturing Index. The week winds down with the BOJ’s Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement and Press conference, EZ Final CPI and Canadian Manufacturing Sales due out on Friday.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

SunJun 10 All Day AUD Bank Holiday
10:45pm NZD Manufacturing Sales q/q 0.60% 2.60%
11:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 10.10% 2.50% -3.90%
JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.20% 3.30% 3.20%
MonJun 11  6:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y 22.00%
8:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.70% 1.20%
8:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.30% -0.10%
GBP Goods Trade Balance -11.5B -12.3B
GBP Construction Output m/m 2.40% -2.30%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.10% 0.10%
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.10%
5:01pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 3.00|2.6
11:50pm JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 3.2 2.9
JPY PPI y/y 2.10% 2.00%
TueJun 12 1:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 10
AUD Home Loans m/m -1.70% -2.20%
11th-16th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 0.10%
4:30am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.60% -0.30%
5:30am EUR French Final Private Payrolls q/q 0.30% 0.30%
12th-15th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 8.50% 8.30%
12th-15th CNY New Loans 1200B 1180B
8:00am EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 11.10% 11.00%
8:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.50% 2.60%
GBP Claimant Count Change 11.3K 31.2K
GBP Unemployment Rate 4.20% 4.20%
9:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -14.6 -8.2
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 0.1 2.4
10:00am USD NFIB Small Business Index 105.2 104.8
12:30pm USD CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
USD Core CPI m/m 0.10% 0.10%
5:01pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.13|2.4
6:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -119.0B 214.3B
10:45pm NZD FPI m/m 0.10%
WedJun 13 12:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -0.60%
2:00am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
7:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.30% 0.40%
8:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.40% 2.40%
GBP PPI Input m/m 1.80% 0.40%
GBP Core CPI y/y 2.10% 2.10%
GBP HPI y/y 4.40% 4.20%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.30% 0.30%
GBP RPI y/y 3.40% 3.40%
9:00am EUR Employment Change q/q 0.30% 0.30%
EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.50% 0.50%
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0.62|2.8
12:30pm USD PPI m/m 0.30% 0.10%
USD Core PPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
2:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.1M
6:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections
USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate <2.00% <1.75%
6:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
Tentative USD Bank Stress Test Results
11:01pm GBP RICS House Price Balance -5% -8%
ThuJun 14 1:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.70%
1:30am AUD Employment Change 19.2K 22.6K
AUD Unemployment Rate 5.60% 5.60%
2:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 7.00% 7.00%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 7.00% 7.00%
CNY Retail Sales y/y 9.60% 9.40%
4:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 0.30% 0.30%
6:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.50% 0.50%
6:45am EUR French Final CPI m/m 0.40% 0.40%
8:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.50% 1.60%
11:45am EUR Main Refinancing Rate 0.00% 0.00%
12:30pm CAD NHPI m/m 0.20% 0.00%
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.30% 0.30%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.30%
USD Unemployment Claims 223K 222K
USD Import Prices m/m 0.50% 0.30%
2:00pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.30% 0.00%
2:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 92B
10:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 58.9
FriJun 15 3:30am AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10%
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
6:00am EUR German WPI m/m 0.50%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
9:00am EUR Final CPI y/y 1.90% 1.90%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.10% 1.10%
EUR Trade Balance 20.2B 21.2B
12:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 6.15B
CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.40%
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 18.6 20.1
1:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.10% 78.00%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.30% 0.70%
1:30pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.20%
2:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.5 98
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.80%
8:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 61.8B

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

 

The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.

 

 

EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1817/30 1.1840/62 1.1996
Spot: 1.1813 Support: 1.1717 1.1669/76 1.1553/1.1618
USD/JPY Mildly Lower Resistance: 110.02/48 110. 84 111.59/65
Spot: 109.99 Support: 109.20/53 108.95 108.65
   
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.3458/91 1.3613/17 1.3712/81
Spot: 1.3435 Support: 1.3302/55 1.3266 1.3221
 
AUD/USD Mildly Lower Resistance: 0.7605/34 0.7666/76 0.7726/0.7916
Spot: 0.7605 Support: 0.7502/90 0.7473/76 0.7412/47
   
USD/CAD Higher Resistance: 1.3000/39 1.3067/80 1.3124
Spot: 1.2966 Support: 1.2803/1.2922 1.2687/1.2756 1.2527/98
   
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7060/65 0.7095 0.7140/53
Spot: 0.7039 Support: 0.7008/23 0.6954/87 0.6817/84

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

Visit TheFXperts’ official website at www.TheFXperts.com.

 

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